Inflation

Wrong sort of inflation is coming down the tracks

14 January 2021

A global food price index has been rising. When commodities like cereal grow dearer, consumers end up paying more. The poorest in developed and developing economies, who spend a higher proportion of income on basics, will feel the pinch as wages are unlikely to keep up.

Corona Capital: Inflation, Poshmark

14 January 2021

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Breakingviews panel predicts the end of the free-money era; and Poshmark’s IPO looks overdressed.

Forces lowering euro zone inflation aren’t all bad

7 January 2021

Euro zone consumer prices fell 0.3% in December from a year ago. Several factors, especially a weak economy, are to blame. Still, a long-term trend that also chips away at inflation is cheaper tech. That’s not something even ECB chief Christine Lagarde would want to see reversed.

Corona Capital: Icahn, Productivity, Natixis

4 January 2021

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Carl Icahn sells half his Herbalife Nutrition stake; an ECB survey suggests Covid-19 will make big firms more productive, but that may not be all good news; and Natixis fast-tracks its overhaul.

Higher U.S. inflation hopes finally look credible

2 December 2020

Market gauges of how consumer prices are expected to behave in coming years hit their highest in a year and a half. There have been false dawns before but 2021 may be different. Vaccines will help unleash pent-up demand, and policymakers are intent on ensuring a robust recovery.

ECB has chance to avoid Fed’s strategy revamp flaw

12 November 2020

Christine Lagarde’s central bank is examining basics, like how it defines its price goal. Its U.S. peer earlier this year switched to aiming for inflation that averages 2% over time. But leaving things as vague as Jerome Powell did undermines efforts to lift price expectations.

Review: Picking the turning point in inflation

16 October 2020

In “The Great Demographic Reversal”, Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan make a good case for why prices will take off. Ageing societies need more carers and labour scarcity may finally lift wages. But they’re perhaps too sanguine on how soon pandemic-stricken economies can heal.

The Exchange: Terra incognita

13 October 2020

The U.S. faces more uncertainty as 2020 ends, including inflation, antitrust enforcement, and how the next president handles taxes, trade and the post-virus economy. So says Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. He argues tackling inequality should be a priority.

The Exchange: The long wait for inflation

6 October 2020

Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan tackle an issue perplexing policymakers and investors: if, and when, price pressures will rise. The authors of “The Great Demographic Reversal” discuss ageing societies, emerging economies, and why the world won’t follow in Japan’s footsteps.

Corona Capital: Vegan eggs, Target’s online fiesta

19 August 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: A maker of chicken-free egg products accelerates its IPO plans amid Covid-19, while U.S. supermarket group Target shows that preparedness is everything in e-commerce.

Does $20 trillion buy much inflation?

11 August 2020

The market’s answer is a firm no. Global stimulus worth over 20% of world GDP has been unveiled, on Bank of America’s numbers. Future price expectations are rising but have yet to bust central bank targets. These low readings show the continuing mystery of inflation’s causes.

Chancellor: Inflation as the post-pandemic cure

25 June 2020

The massive fiscal deficits engendered by the virus should see off deflation. The spectre of rising prices now beckons. While its potential horrors shouldn’t be downplayed, inflation can resolve great imbalances and festering social discontents besetting the global economy.

Hadas: Covid gives monetary extremists false hope

27 May 2020

Those who fear rising prices think anti-pandemic stimulus will surely unleash uncontrolled inflation. Deflation-worriers are just as certain that the global demand shock means their old enemy is lurking. Both disasters are possible, but policy and habit point to price stability.

ECB’s low inflation problem is worse than it looks

30 April 2020

Depressed energy costs meant euro zone consumer prices rose 0.4% in April from a year ago. But President Christine Lagarde may in reality be even further away from her just-below 2% goal. Statisticians’ efforts to fill data gaps during lockdown risk overstating price pressures.

Chancellor: Monetary cure carries risk of its own

16 March 2020

Central bankers aren’t arguing that slashing rates and printing money will resolve the coronavirus panic. But the experience of the 1970s oil crisis suggests meeting a severe global supply shock with fiscal activism and easy money may bring inflation back in a nasty way.

Turkey set for good year before economic reckoning

27 December 2019

More fiscal and central bank stimulus will push growth towards President Tayyip Erdogan’s 5% goal for 2020. Yet inflation will be restrained thanks to lira stability. A credit binge encouraged by Ankara’s policies can last the better part of a year before screeching to a halt.

Hadas: Maybe Paul Volcker wasn’t all that great

17 December 2019

The U.S. central banker, who died on Dec. 8, supposedly broke the 1970s inflation with recession-inducing high interest rates. After 40 years of falling inflation worldwide, his contribution looks less certain. He also missed an early chance to criticise financial deregulation.

German weakness gives ECB carte blanche to be bold

14 August 2019

Europe’s biggest economy shrank in the second quarter as global trade tensions hurt export-orientated manufacturers. The problems will filter through to other sectors. That will lessen any Teutonic resistance to European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi’s planned monetary easing.

Beer gives a more sober view of African progress

14 August 2019

Rwanda and the World Bank have been tweaking poverty numbers to embellish the African state’s post-genocide recovery, the FT says. As in many emerging economies, both have reasons to deliver good news. Cement or beer sales may be more reliable gauges of continental development.

UK and German fiscal activism is just a palliative

9 August 2019

Britain’s GDP shrank in the second quarter. Germany may well report the same within the week. Brexit is largely to blame for the former and trade tensions for the latter. In both cases, budget stimulus would merely mitigate the economic slowdown without fixing its root causes.