IMF’s Egypt bailout chooses hope over experience 11 Mar 2024 Cairo has received an $8 bln IMF loan after a $35 bln cash injection from the United Arab Emirates. If President Sisi does not justify the Fund’s optimism about reforms, a painful restructuring of the $165 bln external debt lies ahead.
Klarna IPO now makes less sense than one later 28 Feb 2024 Decent growth and lower losses mean the Swedish buy now, pay later group can justify a $20 bln valuation. Given that’s three times the level of its last cash injection, there’s an argument for a speedy listing. Still, Klarna’s messy governance suggests a 2025 IPO is more logical.
US real estate is a micro-drama set to turn macro 15 Feb 2024 So far, loans on isolated buildings by individual banks and funds have gone bad. As mortgages worth $1.5 trln come due in the next two years, strains will also spread from offices to apartment blocks. A correction is inevitable, but its impact can still be contained.
Uncle Sam risks recession by a thousand cuts 22 Sep 2023 A government stoppage would shave a sliver from US economic expansion. Restarting student loan payments will have a similar effect. Add striking autoworkers, high oil prices and costly mortgages, and 0.8% growth forecast for the fourth quarter and 0.5% in early 2024 look shaky.
Auto strike may put Carvana’s turnaround on detour 7 Sep 2023 A walkout at Detroit’s Big Three automakers may freeze new-car supply, pushing up old vehicles’ prices. Yet that’s bad news for the used-car dealer, which books fatter profit when inventory is cheap. Supply snarls threaten a re-run of post-pandemic woes that tanked shares by 99%.
Ukraine banks’ robust health masks big challenges 11 May 2023 After previous central bank reforms and an influx of deposits, the Ukrainian financial sector remains strong. But bad loans are at 38% and the three largest banks are state-owned. To support Ukraine’s reconstruction they will need more balance sheet cleanups, and privatisations.
Why retail bankers are beating dealmakers 26 Jan 2023 JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs’ earnings revealed that the basic business of lending money is thriving, while investment banking is not. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this says about the U.S. economy and what to expect from the Europeans.
Euro crisis shield is stuck in hedge fund mode 21 Dec 2022 The European Stability Mechanism, set up to help troubled euro countries, aspires to be the bloc’s debt manager. But member states’ distrust of perceived German control and stigma around its aid make this unlikely. Managing old bailout loans is the fund’s best hope.
New buy-now-pay-later fad runs old-school risks 8 Dec 2022 After Klarna and others saw their valuations slashed, venture investors are now pouring money into business-focused lenders like Wayflyer. It sounds like digital trade finance, which has a patchy past. There’s often a good reason that small borrowers can’t get money elsewhere.
Banks’ buyout-debt machine defies quick jumpstart 8 Dec 2022 SocGen, BNP and Deutsche are buying slices of their own European collateralised loan obligations, which turn private-equity loans into bonds. That has echoes of 2008-style excess, but it’s not too risky. Their bigger problem is that the $1 trln market may be inexorably slowing.
ECB’s bank loan-loss worries look overdone 7 Dec 2022 Chief supervisor Andrea Enria fears that BNP, ING and others are flying blind into a 2023 default storm. But rate hikes will give the 10 largest lenders a 120 bln euro profit buffer before their capital gets hit. The big banks can afford to keep going with dividends and buybacks.
ECB $2 trln bank-loan unwind is fraught with peril 25 Oct 2022 The European Central Bank may tweak a funding scheme to stop lenders minting money at its expense. Fiddling with the terms is legally dubious. Other options could undercut its fight against inflation. But the status quo, indirectly costing taxpayers billions, is unsustainable.
Capital Calls: Buffett’s Berkshire successor 4 Oct 2022 Concise views on global finance: The Omaha oracle owns $100 bln of stock in his conglomerate. His potential successor Greg Abel’s purchase of $68 mln of stock last week – after selling shares in a subsidiary for $870 mln in June – is too small a move toward Buffett’s standard.
Capital Calls: Tesla greases supply-chain fears 3 Oct 2022 Concise views on global finance: The $760 bln electric-car maker manufactured more vehicles in the third quarter but delivered fewer than analysts were expecting, raising fresh concerns about the industry’s ability to get production running smoothly again.
Europe’s sturdy banks risk becoming punch bags 8 Sep 2022 Lenders like Lloyds and Deutsche are set for a rate-hike windfall even as the region faces recession. As in the pandemic, governments may prod them to offer borrowers loan repayment holidays and cheap credit to pay their bills. But this time, banks may not get as many sweeteners.
Banks’ LBO debt hangover may leave lasting scars 16 Aug 2022 Dicey markets forced Goldman Sachs and peers to take a hit on $80 bln of buyout loans that got stuck on their balance sheets. Calmer conditions mean the worst may be over. But the trauma, along with rising rates and competition from private lenders, adds to the case for job cuts.
Beijing is too bashful with its balance sheet 15 Aug 2022 Corporate loans plunged in July while real estate worsened and retail stayed weak. Even as the central bank cuts interest rates, the government is staying fiscally conservative, relying on indebted local provinces to stimulate demand. That looks increasingly unsustainable.
Banks’ private-credit fightback may underwhelm 4 Aug 2022 JPMorgan and Deutsche are trying new ways to fend off lenders like Ares, who are displacing them in funding buyouts. Holding onto loans for longer or launching funds mean lower returns and tough competition. Their best hope is that the booming $1.2 trln sector deflates by itself.
Cheery bank CEOs have the edge on gloomy investors 29 Jul 2022 Santander, BNP, ING, Lloyds and SocGen have lost 27% of their value since mid-February, on fears higher rates will cause defaults to rise. Chief executives, meanwhile, expect returns to stay high. Share prices implying steeper losses than 2020 suggest the selloff is overdone.
Ukraine needs grants more than long-term loans 22 Jun 2022 EU leaders are debating ways to help Kyiv finance its $5 bln monthly budget deficit from the Russian invasion. So far, it has met all its financial obligations. But Ukraine’s allies shouldn’t add to its debt burden. Better that they borrow in order to help Kyiv out with grants.