Money‚ Markets & Macroeconomics

U.S. stimulus is map for infrastructure bonanza

8 March 2021

Senate passage of $2 trln in economic aid offers hope for new roads and bridges. The slim Democratic majority used a parliamentary trick to bypass Republicans, which they can also apply to Biden’s pricier spending priority. Companies should brace to pay some of that bill.

Oil price supercycle could be super short

8 March 2021

Crude spiked above $70 a barrel, regaining pre-virus levels. It could climb even higher given OPEC is holding back supply and global policymakers are stimulating economies. But if lofty prices encourage production by those outside the cartel, they may not last that long.

Capital Calls: American Airlines, Crypto PayPal

8 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: The U.S. carrier is issuing new debt and hocking some airline miles to pay back the U.S. Treasury loan that carried restrictions on pay and dividends; PayPal investors give a shrug over another dive into bitcoin-land.

Britain’s zeal for financial reform could backfire

8 March 2021

Finance minister Rishi Sunak has endorsed changing rules to promote stock market listings and fintech. Insurance may be next. The drive not only risks a return to the pre-2008 “light touch” approach to oversight. It also makes financial services deals with other countries harder.

U.S. jobs jump masks big challenges

5 March 2021

The economy added 379,000 positions last month as temporarily laid-off workers were rehired. But there was little change in the number of long-term unemployed and the Black jobless rate rose to nearly 10%. This suggests the Fed’s wait for full employment will be a long one.

Review: The human response to a man-made disaster

5 March 2021

Mankind’s impact on the planet is irreversible, Elizabeth Kolbert writes in “Under a White Sky”. She focuses on people trying to limit the damage, whether by breeding hardy coral or reflecting the sun. Wilfully shaping nature raises new dilemmas. But we may have no choice.

Capital Calls: Shutterfly’s touch-up

5 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: A SPAC may give photo-sharing firm Shutterfly a shiny new frame.

India has an opportunity to mend U.S. trade ties

4 March 2021

President Joe Biden’s aides reviewing India’s loss of preferential trade may face similar spats on technology and medical devices as their predecessors. Patience is waning though. Small gives by Prime Minister Narendra Modi could boost confidence and help to avoid more tariffs.

Capital Calls: OPEC+, Michaels

4 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: Recovery concerns keep a lid on the oil cartel’s supply taps; Apollo tries its hand at craft retailer Michaels.

UK recovery may not reflect its vaccine head start

3 March 2021

Rishi Sunak’s budget showed Britain’s rapid inoculations are aiding its economy. But while the finance minister will keep paying Britons’ wages until September, his longer-term stimulus is more meagre. A lot rests on businesses driving the recovery, even as he taxes them more.

Capital Calls: BoE, Soros, Infrastructure, Pay

3 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: The Bank of England starts to embrace the green transition; George Soros has some advice for France; Joe Biden gets a timely reminder of the importance of infrastructure; climate laggards risk getting hit in their wallets.

London IPO shakeup is more about SPACs than tech

3 March 2021

Finance minister Rishi Sunak plans to overhaul stock market rules to attract more listings. The changes may prevent some UK startups from defecting. But they also allow London to join the craze for blank-cheque offerings. The costs of weaker regulation will become apparent later.

Meme stocks game could stop with Gensler

2 March 2021

The nominee to lead the U.S. securities regulator talked about trading gamification, inadequately funded platforms, and payments for order flow. The GameStop share-price roller coaster deserves a close look. But the SEC has other, perhaps tastier, fish to fry, like SPACs.

Biden finds Mohammed bin Salman is too big to nail

2 March 2021

The American president has taken heat for inaction over Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, despite judging him responsible for journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. But MbS’ influence has metastasized across global finance. The fallout from sanctioning him would be more than diplomatic.

Chancellor: A bear market in bonds is beckoning

2 March 2021

Bond bull runs tend to last for decades, making it nearly impossible to accurately predict a turning point. But recent fixed-income extremes, together with the complacent attitude of central bankers and investors, suggest history’s greatest bond boom has passed its sell-by date.

The Exchange: The post-pandemic global economy

2 March 2021

Policymakers will face tricky choices about when to withdraw massive policy support as economic recovery kicks in. BNP Paribas’ group chief economist, William De Vijlder, joins Swaha Pattanaik to discuss their options, the focus on inclusive growth and the outlook for inflation.

Capital Calls: Exxon, Greensill, Research SPAC

2 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: U.S. securities regulators take on the oil giant; Investors in even lower-risk funds get nervy about the supply chain finance provider; And a supplier of picks and shovels to the online trading boom gets a blank-check listing.

Wounded U.S. bank watchdog needs urgent care

1 March 2021

The OCC, which oversees giant lenders like JPMorgan, has gone astray. It went solo on community lending rules, banned banks from eschewing oil firms and let them settle over sloppy compliance with little explanation. A new leader can repair the damage, but time is of the essence.

Capital Calls: Sarkozy’s trial

1 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: the former French prime minister’s conviction for trying to bribe a judge creates a new dilemma for the companies on whose board he sits, including hotel chain Accor.

Review: The wild history of the commodities boys

26 February 2021

“The World for Sale” offers a virtuoso depiction of the globe’s top oil, food, and metals traders. Javier Blas and Jack Farchy tell of their startling risk appetites, spy novel antics, and geopolitical heft. Still, it’s good that their wings have been increasingly clipped.