Oil & Gas

Saudi’s sunny debt offer belies gathering clouds

10 January 2019

Riyadh’s successful $7.5 bln bond sale suggests investors have moved on from the Khashoggi murder. Yet long-dated Saudi debt trades at an implied discount to its rating. With the kingdom too optimistic about oil prices and facing peak demand, markets won’t always be so friendly.

Norwegian $800 mln oil swoop succeeds if it fails

8 January 2019

DNO, chaired by Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, offered a low price for Faroe Petroleum. Investors could reject the bid, but the magnate likes to control companies with minority stakes, and already owns 31 pct of the North Sea driller. Any hopes for a big bump may be disappointed.

Hapless oil bets will drive airline M&A

4 January 2019

Air operators are divided into two camps on fuel prices. Ryanair and Lufthansa are prepared for a hike after locking in hedges. Smaller carriers are hoping for a fall. If their bet goes wrong, they could be gobbled up.

Saudi oil will grease China’s currency ambitions

4 January 2019

Shanghai’s crude contract is nibbling at dollar benchmarks: a win for Beijing, which wants to increase the yuan’s global clout. Riyadh can help it along by pricing more oil in the currency, as Russia moves in the same direction. The benefits for both sides outweigh the risks.

Hadas: Silly carbon tax talk hides hard choices

2 January 2019

The principle that higher prices reduce demand lies behind calls for levies on carbon dioxide emissions. But prices cannot do much in the large, complicated and economically crucial energy industry. Only big government, or major lifestyle adjustments, can really change things.

Brazil will get energy mostly right; Mexico won’t

28 December 2018

New regimes of opposing ideologies in Latam’s two biggest economies will wrestle with balancing 1970s-style nationalism against the need to open up to foreign and private capital to exploit their oil and gas resources. Brazil’s far-right president-elect has the better prospects.

China can afford some pipe dreams in 2019

20 December 2018

After years of speculation, Beijing will finally push behemoths like $200 bln PetroChina to spin off their pipelines next year. Allowing those oil and gas networks to run independently opens the field up to smaller competitors. It’s a major step towards energy market reform.

Trump can get what he wants from Saudi in 2019

14 December 2018

As the year closes, oil prices have fallen to well below highs that riled the U.S. president. The risk is OPEC supply cuts and sanctions on Iran will send them back up. Yet scope to influence the kingdom on output – as well as its behaviour in the region - gives him a hedge.

Hadas: What oil price volatility is trying to say

12 December 2018

A barrel of oil costs 31 pct less than in early October. The message is not about investment needs or a big demand shift. The tumble is big because the geopolitical racket makes lesser moves inaudible. Stock markets may also be speaking up.

Miners’ digging rush is a chance to show restraint

10 December 2018

Exploration, which stalled as prices crumbled after 2011, is back. Speculation over Rio Tinto’s drilling in Australia’s Great Sandy Desert, for example, has sent rivals on a copper-hunting frenzy. With deals scarce, such moves make sense, so long as the diggers stay disciplined.

OPEC condition upgraded from terminal to ailing

7 December 2018

The oil producers’ club agreed a 1.2 million bpd cut with allies like Russia, hiking prices. After Qatar’s exit, failure to do so would have destroyed the cartel’s credibility. But the details imply OPEC leader Saudi’s wishes are subordinate to those of Russia and the U.S.

Shell’s climate pay gesture lacks thermostat

3 December 2018

Linking executive bonuses to carbon targets, as the $258 billion giant has pledged to do, should focus bosses’ minds. Yet the goals and sums involved are unclear, and the plan only starts in 2020. Investors can do more to hold energy groups’ feet to the fire on emissions.

Qatar’s OPEC exit is a deft way to irritate Saudi

3 December 2018

Leaving the producer group is justified given big output calls are now taken by Riyadh and non-member Russia. Still, spurning a seat at the table is significant. It’s a way for Doha to flaunt gas riches, while implying a Saudi-led OPEC is increasingly chaotic and less relevant.

Saudi can pick a path through its OPEC minefield

27 November 2018

Riyadh must somehow please oil-producing peers who want to bolster prices and a U.S. president who wants the opposite. Crude costs will rise when Donald Trump’s temporary Iranian oil waivers expire. Saudi can appease both sides by making equally temporary reductions in output.

Trump’s Saudi amorality can make Gulf great again

26 November 2018

Support for Mohammed bin Salman after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi has skewered U.S. claims to moral leadership. Yet the U.S. president now has huge leverage to force Saudi’s crown prince to reverse course on Qatar, Yemen and other blunders. He would be a fool not to use it.

EasyJet valuation is heading for lower altitudes

20 November 2018

The budget airline carried a record number of passengers in 2018. That will be hard to replicate since rivals are finally resolving their problems. Stiffer competition and higher costs will weigh on revenue. The premium at which the company is trading over most peers will shrink.

GE may be canary in credit market’s coal mine

15 November 2018

The firm’s bonds tanked this week even as an asset sale briefly lifted its shares. That’s a warning shot for all credit investors. U.S. companies carry more debt than ever, and quality has deteriorated. Rising interest rates and slowing growth could make this a big problem.

Oil forecasting goes from tough to pointless

14 November 2018

In recent months crude has hit $86 a barrel, fallen to $65, and is now rising again. Oil prices drive other markets, but predicting them can be a waste of time. Changing demand outlooks, Saudi turmoil and Trump are only the most volatile of a series of uncertainties.

GE eases blow with Baker Hughes share sale

13 November 2018

The $70 billion industrial company is selling a chunk of its 62 percent stake in the oil-services firm a day after it said it urgently needed cash. The timing isn’t optimal. But it is better to do something than nothing, and GE can test the waters while saving dignity.

Mexico’s revolutionaries risk spoiling the party

12 November 2018

President-elect López Obrador doesn’t take office until next month, but he and his fellow leftists have already upset markets with moves to nix an airport project and rein in bank fees. Such fumbles could help guide Brazil’s far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro as he nears power too.