Politics

Donald Trump wins most insufferable title at Davos

21 January 2020

It’s a high bar, but the U.S. president is in an acutely braggadocious mood. He signed a China trade deal, stocks are at record highs and Iran’s top general is dead. Impeachment aside, the global elite will be even more annoyed by him because he has real things to brag about.

Moody’s Hong Kong downgrade flunks Carrie Lam

21 January 2020

The credit agency cut the city’s rating, citing the leader’s feeble response to months of unrest. It’s a terse rejection of her stimulus plan, but Moody’s also indicted wider institutional inertia. That suggests economic revival will be difficult, whether Lam stays or not.

Africa’s richest woman is Angola’s trickiest issue

20 January 2020

The petrostate’s government is scrutinising the $2 bln business empire of Isabel dos Santos. Reports of nepotism clearly hurt the daughter of Angola’s ex-ruler. But proving graft will be hard, and seizing her stakes in local firms might hit the economy.

Macau’s makeover comes at a cost for casinos

20 January 2020

Authorities are desperate to diversify the $55 bln economy beyond betting and will use their clout in 2020 to force Sands and Wynn to invest more in theatres and malls, away from betting tables. Odds on it will sink profit margins: the new breed of visitors won’t be big spenders.

Vodafone’s India demise would cause wave of pain

17 January 2020

Shares in the telco’s local unit plunged 25% after a court dismissed a plea to review $7 bln of levies. The government could accept delayed payment, still leaving Vodafone Idea with a heavy burden. The alternative, bankruptcy of the big brand, will hit a fragile economy hard.

Trump’s trade war chases its own tail

16 January 2020

The U.S. president is hailing his agreement with China as a boost to farmers and manufacturing workers. It is, but only because they were the losers from trade conflict. Obama showed that following the rules doesn’t work; Trump has only shown that ripping them up doesn’t either.

China trade deal gives Trump a campaign win

15 January 2020

Beijing pledged to buy more U.S. goods and enforce intellectual-property rights. It has fallen short on similar promises in the past, and anyway the conflict was partly whipped up by the U.S. president. Still, he can tout the new “phase one” agreement as he seeks re-election.

Putin picks good time for Potemkin reshuffle

15 January 2020

The Russian government has resigned, amid plans to change the constitution. However it’s resolved, Vladimir Putin’s grip on the state he has ruled for two decades will endure. But given the manner of the extension still matters, he has chosen a relatively calm time to act.

Flybe is ominous UK test flight for Johnsonomics

15 January 2020

Britain has rescued the struggling regional airline operator by deferring a tax bill, and more help could follow. Boris Johnson can trumpet his aid for poorer bits of the UK. But downgrading climate change and free markets sends a grim signal of the prime minister’s priorities.

Hong Kong’s luxury icon sells new retail model

15 January 2020

Chow Tai Fook plans to close up to 15 of its local stores. The $11 bln jeweller’s decision comes at a moment of calm after months of protests and before a key shopping holiday. That suggests a recovery is distant. Tapping mainland shoppers elsewhere is the new way forward.

Saudi nuclear ambitions may further fray U.S. ties

14 January 2020

Riyadh could soon award tenders to build two nuclear reactors. Picking Russia’s Rosatom would heighten tensions with Washington, its traditional ally. And if the kingdom also lobbies for scope to create nuclear weapons, it would make for an awkward comparison with archfoe Iran.

Trump adds fake currency news to trade armory

13 January 2020

The U.S. government will stop accusing Beijing of yuan manipulation as part of a limited tariff deal. The dubious claim was born of presidential ire. But its arguable success makes it a useful stick for the White House – a worry for those with growing trade deficits like Vietnam.

Taiwan’s revival is Tsai’s to squander

13 January 2020

The independence-leaning president has coasted into a second term on anti-Beijing sentiment and a strong $580 bln economy. Tsai Ing-wen can take credit for neither. After wasting an earlier opportunity, she now has another to fix poor infrastructure that threatens growth.

Sultan Qaboos’ legacy of peace looks safe for now

12 January 2020

Oman’s iconic leader is dead after a 50-year reign. The risk of upheaval has been eased by the appointment of his cousin, and regional tensions that have subsided in recent days. But the longer-term scope for weak finances to hit Muscat’s role as a key Gulf mediator remains.

New York entertains a lesson in secession

10 January 2020

Staten Island may reanimate a 26-year-old bid to break away from the Big Apple. There are countless reasons not to, and the economic case is sketchy – but residents could back it anyway. New York’s “forgotten borough” is a fitting ambassador for a world that’s getting smaller.

Hong Kong bourse boss trusts in awkward necessity

10 January 2020

Charles Li has seen HKEX earnings plunge on political unrest as Beijing mulls alternative venues. Yet Li is confident China’s market inefficiencies will leave it dependent on Hong Kong’s financial plumbing in the end. The exchange’s reviving share price suggests investors agree.

Gulf’s long-serving ruler is ailing at a bad time

9 January 2020

Oman’s Sultan Qaboos is ill. For 50 years the iconic leader has positioned his realm as a neutral Gulf player. If he dies as the Iran crisis rages, an opaque succession process and shaky finances could deprive a fractious region of a key backchannel when it’s most needed.

Viewsroom: Hong Kong’s uncertain 2020

9 January 2020

Political unrest continues to roil the financial hub. For investors, though, it’s mostly business as usual as markets take protests in their stride. As Beijing replaces its top representative in the city, and makes other changes, that uneasy balance may be hard to sustain.

Aramco’s war-risk snake trumps oil-price ladder

6 January 2020

The threat of U.S. sanctions on Iraq should boost the oil price, and the Saudi giant’s value. Yet its shares have slumped to their lowest level since trading commenced last month. That may be because the company’s operations are more likely to be a target for Iranian retaliation.

Middle East strife’s market toll is just beginning

3 January 2020

Oil prices rose more than 3% and global bourses fell after a U.S. air strike killed Iran’s top military leader, Qassem Soleimani. The Islamic republic may well follow up its rhetoric of revenge with action. Investors now have a real war, not just a trade one, to fret about.