Politics

President Dimon would be square peg in Oval hole

2 Jun 2023

JPMorgan’s longtime boss could get a head start on a 2024 White House run by capturing the powerful capitalist constituency. Beyond that, there are too many pitfalls. For one thing, he is an avowed free-enterpriser, a quality ill-suited for this particular executive office.

Biden’s America goes from oil guzzler to gusher

1 Jun 2023

The commodity’s main benchmark is including prices of oil from Texas, a reflection of a shift. Even as American demand stagnates, U.S.-based producers pump and export more. The president wants the country to be green. He can’t control the private industry that supports the world.

Treasury buyers live for the moment, unfortunately

1 Jun 2023

Markets tend to brush off near-disasters when it comes to pricing U.S. debt. Yields fell as Congress struck a deal to avoid default, even though the Treasury is prepping a borrowing spree and rates are staying stubbornly high. Investors’ fingers remain firmly stuck in their ears.

Global tax would spoil investors’ plastic party

1 Jun 2023

The world is drowning in waste, but demand for durable polymers is soaring. This may change if UN talks to end plastic pollution by 2040 succeed in introducing a levy. That will shrink a bonus market for Big Oil and cut packaging firms’ margins.

Overhauling US debt limit is an easy no-brainer

31 May 2023

Congress is again set to raise the cap on the country’s borrowing mere days before a default. President Joe Biden isn’t willing to abolish the ceiling, but every creditor has limits. A soft limit on the deficit, which balances the budget when crossed, would be a better safeguard.

Summer vote can dissipate Spain’s economic clouds

31 May 2023

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is gambling on a snap general election after a rout in local polls. Frictions within his ruling coalition irked voters. Strong popular backing would give him the mandate to tackle the country’s fiscal woes, pension costs and high unemployment.

Elon Musk is Beijing’s ideal foreign investor

31 May 2023

Officials rolled out the red carpet for the billionaire’s first visit since 2020. His EV investments stimulated local brands, he’s made Twitter amenable to authoritarians, and he shows the People’s Republic is still investable. That buys Tesla lots of political cover in China.

Capital Calls: US debt deal

30 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The pending deal for raising the debt ceiling would shift $20 billion out of the government’s tax collector. The move eases some short-term budget pressures, but could surrender a seven-fold payoff down the road.

India’s moment is obfuscated by its jobs deficit

30 May 2023

The country is establishing itself on the global investment map. In this Exchange podcast, author and ex-IMF director Ashoka Mody talks about why executives should look at India’s underemployment problem instead of focusing on its 7% GDP growth as they size-up the opportunity.

Erdogan win sends stark note on economy and votes

29 May 2023

People in Turkey effectively opted to prolong the president’s wild policies that have led to 44% inflation. The extension of his 20-year rule tees up the country to inch further away from the West. For global leaders, it’s a warning that success in money matters only goes so far.

How US allies can mitigate Trump 2.0

29 May 2023

A return to the White House for the pro-Putin, protectionist and climate-sceptic former President would pose many challenges for other rich democracies. Their best insurance is to ramp up support for Ukraine, promote trade and speed up action on global warming, says Hugo Dixon.

Biden gives little, gets less in debt ceiling deal

28 May 2023

The White House reached an agreement with Republicans to raise the debt limit for two years. The deal will avoid a big knock on Biden’s reelection plans, but the victories end there. Spending caps and social-aid restrictions give Democrats little else to cheer.

Economic stability hangs on US love of BBQ

26 May 2023

The US government is racing to ink a deal to avoid default ahead of the long weekend that marks the start of summer. Agreeing on how to handle the debt ceiling would relieve US creditors and calm markets. The rush will almost certainly leave big problems unfixed.

How risky bank debt makes customers safer

25 May 2023

Protecting depositors is at the top of regulators’ list of priorities after recent bank failures. Big banks already derive extra protection by issuing loss-absorbing bonds. Getting mid-sized US players to do so too could be the key to promising clients their cash is risk-free.

Macron’s neglect is France’s main fiscal problem

25 May 2023

National debt is above 110% of GDP and will keep rising if the government’s rosy forecasts don’t pan out. Austerity isn’t the answer now, but the president doesn’t seem interested in crafting a long-term plan to cut indebtedness. That will hit the economy and future generations.

Debt ceiling crash will have few victims

25 May 2023

President Joe Biden is trying to hammer out a deal with Republican lawmakers to ensure the United States can keep its lights on. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how even if the world’s largest economy defaults on its debts the damage will be limited.

Intuit investors bet on Uncle Sam’s inept tech

24 May 2023

The US may allow consumers to file taxes online, bypassing private software. Surveys suggest a free option could threaten up to $2.9 bln in revenue from Intuit’s TurboTax arm. The $120 bln company and its shareholders are relying on the state failing to get its act together.

Debt ceiling debacle is ultimate winner’s curse

23 May 2023

The US government is sailing perilously close to a moment when it cannot both service its debts and pay its dues. Political dysfunction could trip into market mayhem. Yet in monetary terms the US remains the only game in town. The debt showdown is the flip side of that privilege.

Supply chain scrutiny may upend EU solar ambitions

23 May 2023

Renewable groups must forgo photovoltaic components from China’s Xinjiang to comply with forced labour curbs. Yet the region produces 35% of the pure silicon needed in panels, and US firms are scooping up the non-Chinese supply. Enforcing a ban may scupper EU green targets.

EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel

23 May 2023

Fuelled by imports from Moscow, oil products sales to Europe from refiners including Reliance and Nayara have nearly doubled to $15 bln. The trend shows anti-Russian sanctions are not watertight. Yet, risks of an energy inflation revival make a European Union ban a tough call.