Politics

Hadas: Hong Kong teaches lessons on taming China

19 June 2019

The Asian financial hub is a special case, but its mass protests make clear that single-minded resolve can push back against an increasingly prosperous and autocratic People’s Republic. Similar focus would help foreign businesses and governments. Donald Trump is mostly failing.

Gloating over Hong Kong distracts Taipei

19 June 2019

President Tsai Ing-wen made an unlikely political comeback largely thanks to unrest in the financial centre that rallied anti-Beijing sentiment. But the island’s citizens are unlikely to glean any economic benefit from Hong Kong’s pain. Tsai’s reform to-do list remains too long.

Qatar shows up late to wealth fund buyout party

18 June 2019

The gas-rich emirate’s wealth fund plans to choose its own investments in areas like tech and private equity, instead of using third-party managers. That chimes with what rivals are doing, and echoes its own racy history. Now is hardly the best time to revert to type, though.

Central banks can only nudge towards greener world

18 June 2019

The Bank of France boss says climate change may end up being a stagflationary shock. That’s a good reason for rate-setters convening in Portugal to care about global warming. But meddling too much may imperil their independence. It’s up to governments to make a real difference.

The Exchange: John Delaney

17 June 2019

The first Democrat to bid for 2020’s presidential election has a pitch rarely heard in today’s political slugfest: that Democrats and Republicans can get along. Despite being a peacemaker, the former Maryland congressman has some punchy views on China, Big Tech and drug prices.

Rome can get edge on Paris with network M&A

17 June 2019

Telecom Italia may buy rival network provider Open Fiber. A deal could revive its fortunes by taking out a competitor. And a valuation of over 2 bln euros would allow the government, a shareholder in both, to secure control of the telco, at the expense of French rival Vivendi.

Beijing yields to Hong Kong’s financial clout

15 June 2019

Carrie Lam has suspended a bill that would have allowed extradition to the mainland, backing down after protests rocked the city she leads. It’s a defeat for her, and leaves egg on the central government’s face. But for China, Hong Kong’s economic utility trumps political control.

Hurricane Trump may give Beijing some cover

14 June 2019

A torrent of rising U.S. tariffs threatens to wash out some of China’s growth. There’s far more behind the slowdown, but just as CEOs cite bad weather to obscure underlying issues, officials could use the trade war to release more stimulus or just blame Trump for missed targets.

Climate risk makes 2008 crisis look like a breeze

12 June 2019

A lone U.S. regulator says finance-sector losses from global warming could rival last decade’s meltdown. It’s one way to get the attention of Washington’s skeptics. A new report suggests profitable opportunities outweigh the risks two-to-one. That’s a more appealing argument.

Hong Kong’s new protests come at a dangerous time

12 June 2019

Violence flared in the financial centre as police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at citizens opposing an extradition bill. Pro-democracy demonstrations in 2014 fizzled out. But this movement has broader support, and the economy is more fragile. The standoff is harder to defuse.

Hong Kong chief bets everything on a losing hand

12 June 2019

Carrie Lam plans to fast-track a bill allowing extradition to mainland China, in the face of street protests and strikes. The city will suffer long-term damage. For now, the cost of her battered credibility will be worthwhile policies, including much-needed housing reform.

Hong Kong risks its future as global business hub

10 June 2019

New rules allowing extradition to the mainland prompted massive protests on Sunday. If Chief Executive Carrie Lam ignores the message, foreign governments may retract trade agreements and reconsider their relationship with the territory. That would hurt both Hong Kong and China.

India Insight: Not enough water for 1.3 bln people

10 June 2019

Maharashtra boasts one-tenth of the country’s population and the biggest economy of any state, but it is parched. Beyond the capital, Mumbai, a cattle camp offers a window into India’s struggle with water. Skewed incentives need to be reset, and more, to avert a stirring crisis.

Mexico truce is sad episode in trade reality show

10 June 2019

U.S. President Trump scrapped planned import taxes after Mexico pledged more action on migrant crossings – something it had already offered to do. It reinforces the illusion that levies are a potent way to tackle non-trade issues, and sets the scene for more unproductive drama.

Sanctions victims compare scars in St Petersburg

7 June 2019

Vladimir Putin is casting his annual economic forum as a haven for countries and companies targeted by the U.S. government. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s attendance is a coup. But any broader alliance between the targets of Washington’s displeasure remains in its infancy.

Cox: Bruno Le Maire’s an awesome investment banker

6 June 2019

That’s one explanation for France’s finance minister torpedoing the $35 bln Fiat-Renault merger, if he now revives it with Paris at the wheel. More likely he’s mimicking President de Gaulle - who roughly expropriated the carmaker after the war - and doing France no favours.

Indians kept waiting for benefits of low inflation

6 June 2019

Narendra Modi won at the ballot despite farmers hurting from sluggish price rises. To help goose a cooling economy, the RBI has cut rates a third time in four months, to 5.75%, in its first post-election meeting. It’ll only help if banks start passing lower costs onto borrowers.

Rare earths expose the trouble with next-gen M&A

6 June 2019

Beijing's threat to squeeze sales of the minerals has boosted $1.3 bln Lynas, one of few non-Chinese producers. That’s a blow for suitor Wesfarmers. It's also a reminder of how limited targets and opaque prices have challenged corporate heavyweights looking to tap new metals.

Canada is caught in America’s trade-war crossfire

5 June 2019

President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico puts at risk the new version of the three-way NAFTA trade deal. Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO at America’s request upset China. And its uranium exports may now face levies, too. Ottawa can’t catch a break.

Fed could do worse than mimic Donald Rumsfeld

5 June 2019

George W. Bush’s defense secretary famously talked of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. The U.S. central bank, seeking better communication, could borrow the categories. They help explain why markets now expect interest-rate cuts while Fed rate-setters don’t.