UK turmoil shows up markets as amoral and impotent 17 Jun 2016 Sterling and stocks rebounded due to speculation that the killing of a pro-EU British lawmaker might affect the outcome of a June 23 referendum. Traders trade on any scrap of information, even tragedy. In this case, they are more at the mercy of events than shaping them.
Pro-Brexit bankers risk repeating past errors 17 Jun 2016 The City may well suffer if Britain quits the EU, yet some financiers plan to vote Leave. Hopes the economy will flourish, as after sterling’s 1992 ERM exit, look optimistic. Betting that London can gain from a euro implosion, meanwhile, may just repeat wrong calls made pre-1999.
Brexit would be double whammy for Spain SA 17 Jun 2016 A UK exit from the European Union would be a headache for Spanish companies. For one thing, it could increase risk premiums as confidence in the EU wanes. For another, Spain’s biggest companies - Santander, Iberdrola and Ferrovial - have made big bets in the UK.
Cox: An appeal to London’s Brexit banker castoffs 16 Jun 2016 If Britain votes to leave the EU, global financial institutions have said they’ll need to relocate thousands of jobs to the continent. A fictional letter from Antwerp’s mayor to JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon sums up the pre-emptive pitch cities and regions are sure to make.
Chancellor: Why I have voted for Brexit 16 Jun 2016 Prophecies of economic turmoil if Britain leaves the EU lack credibility. If the EU cared for its citizens, substantive reforms would have been enacted. A vote for Brexit shows solidarity with Europe’s public - and with the principles of Kant, the great Enlightenment philosopher.
Dixon: Why I’m voting to remain in Europe 16 Jun 2016 Britain has much to gain from capital markets union and free digital trade, argues Breakingviews’ founder. But the boiling cauldron of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Leave camp’s misinformation, are even more worrying. Brexit would be a triumph for post-truth politics.
Britain is better off staying in Europe 16 Jun 2016 A vote to remain in the European Union is the least bad option for Britons - but it should be an ultimatum, not a capitulation. If the problems that led to anti-EU sentiment aren’t addressed, the debate will return with a vengeance. And for harmony to endure, the euro may have to go.
ASML’s $3 bln deal is a big bet on tiny tech 16 Jun 2016 The semiconductor-equipment maker is buying Taiwan's Hermes Microvision. The target's sales have plunged and global chip demand is cooling. But ASML's biggest-ever deal should make it even more indispensable to manufacturers as they prepare to make next-generation chips.
Brexit pollsters go heavy on the fear 14 Jun 2016 Bookmakers reckon the UK will vote to stay in Europe, but polls suggest the “Out” campaign is ahead and gaining ground. While an outsized share of betting is in London and the Southeast, where support for the EU is highest, the betting odds are probably closer to the mark.
Brexit is reopening euro zone sovereign wounds 14 Jun 2016 France’s bond yields are rising while Germany’s are falling. It’s a warning markets may doubt the integrity of the euro zone if a UK exit triggers copycat referendums. The ECB has neither the power nor the mandate to fight the kind of extreme outcomes that could ensue.
China engineers low-risk $3 bln chip deal with NXP 14 Jun 2016 Beijing’s appetite for overseas semiconductor assets is controversial. Yet NXP is selling a commodity business, based in Europe, to a familiar Chinese buyer at a reasonable price. So this deal is less likely to short-circuit for either regulatory or financial reasons.
How Cameron could still pull plug on Brexit vote 13 Jun 2016 Picture the scene: the UK's referendum on EU membership looms, and polls have swung heavily in favour of leaving. Panic grips 10 Downing Street. Yet there may be another way. Breakingviews imagines how a senior advisor to the prime minister might suggest the unthinkable.
Commerz plays Jedi to ECB’s negative-rate Empire 8 Jun 2016 The German bank may stash billions of euros in vaults to offset the pain of the ECB’s negative rate policy. The financial gains are modest, yet the move is a warning against future rate cuts. If the ECB slashes further, other rebellions may start to undermine monetary policy.
Sterling not done as pre-Brexit whipping boy 7 Jun 2016 An EU exit would be less disastrous for Britain’s stocks and bonds than its currency. Some firms will gain from weaker sterling, and rate cut speculation may support gilts. But foreigners holding these assets are going to hedge FX exposure, piling yet more pressure on the pound.
Dixon: Fiscal union has no place in EU Brexit plan 7 Jun 2016 European politicians’ knee-jerk reaction if Britain votes to quit the European Union will be to integrate further. This would be foolish, provoking a populist backlash. A better response would be to loosen fiscal policy while embarking on bolder economic and market reforms.
Europe can handle Germanic political risk 6 Jun 2016 Popular President Joachim Gauck won’t run for a new term in 2017. The timing is awkward for Chancellor Angela Merkel. But as voters have no direct say in electing a successor, Austrian-style turmoil is not on the cards. Germany for now will remain Europe’s bedrock of stability.
Local vote is wildcard in Italy’s reform gamble 6 Jun 2016 The radical 5-Star Movement looks set to win Rome in mayoral elections, with second round votes still to come. That plus other local election results could stir up opposition to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional reforms, and make it harder for him to call elections.
OPEC has an oily blind spot over Brexit 2 Jun 2016 Britain leaving the EU would present the cartel with a tricky demand problem. Brexit could slow economic growth in Europe and reduce consumption of crude in the world’s third-largest market for fuel. If that happens OPEC may have to cut output, or risk prices falling again.
LSE-Deutsche Boerse offers jam tomorrow, tomorrow 1 Jun 2016 The two exchanges reckon their merger can create 250 mln euros of new revenue - eventually. But there are plenty of hurdles to delivering the goods, from a potential Brexit to the 20-plus regulatory approvals needed. The inherent slipperiness of boosting sales is a poor lure.
“Because it’s France” no basis for EU budget rules 1 Jun 2016 Jean-Claude Juncker used that to explain why France wins more fiscal leeway. This might be worrying coming from the head of the European Commission, which enforces budget discipline, if it weren't already plain. Blindly applying rules is foolish, as is regular failure to do so.