France

Macron’s neglect is France’s main fiscal problem

25 May 2023

National debt is above 110% of GDP and will keep rising if the government’s rosy forecasts don’t pan out. Austerity isn’t the answer now, but the president doesn’t seem interested in crafting a long-term plan to cut indebtedness. That will hit the economy and future generations.

Europe’s oil major sweet spot could yet turn sour

4 May 2023

Shell, BP and Total are still making fat profits, and investors seem fine with a slower route out of oil. Rising rates also make wind projects look even less enticing than fossil fuel ones. But longer term, Europe’s oil titans may lose their head start in the shift to net zero.

Oil AGMs presage awkward investor decoupling

28 Apr 2023

BP sailed through its annual shareholder meeting without much blowback on how it had backtracked on climate goals. That will embolden competitors to dismiss pro-green investors’ concerns, and give more to the opposite camp. It is becoming harder to please both sides.

Bolloré sale brings Vivendi endgame a step closer

19 Apr 2023

Tycoon Vincent Bolloré may offload his logistics unit for $5 bln. That gives him firepower to buy out shareholders of his $12 bln media group Vivendi. Yet a full takeover may be costly, and the 71-year-old has other ways to tighten his grip. Betting on a big premium looks risky.

How US and allies can find common ground on China

17 Apr 2023

Emmanuel Macron is not the only US partner wary of being drawn into a Taiwan crisis. But America and its allies will be stronger if they can agree more about dealing with the People’s Republic. Part of the answer is to focus on de-risking rather than decoupling, says Hugo Dixon.

Sinking Russian military crafts new arms winners

12 Apr 2023

Moscow’s share of global arms exports shrank by 27% over the last five years, to the benefit of the US and France. Deprived of Western technology, Russia’s defence industry has struggled to adapt. Its traditional customers also aren’t impressed by its poor performance in Ukraine.

Fiddly call-centre deal shows why M&A is so quiet

30 Mar 2023

Dealmakers have had a quiet start to 2023, given economic uncertainty and shaky debt markets. Concentrix’s $4.8 bln swoop on Webhelp solves many of those problems with a clever structure, including a convertible note. But it’s not a formula that would work in many other cases.

Xavier Niel can feast on European telco misery

27 Mar 2023

The French tycoon has assembled a privately owned telecoms empire worth about $33 bln, Breakingviews calculates. Behind the scenes he’s manoeuvring to further spread his wings. Purchases of stakes in Vodafone and Luxembourg-based Millicom signal the scale of his ambition.

Bolloré buyback delays possible Vivendi M&A action

15 Mar 2023

The French tycoon’s eponymous holding company is buying back 10% of its shares, potentially boosting the family’s control. The outlay drains cash that could have been used to boost its stake in media group Vivendi. But that’s still a logical endpoint for Bolloré and his children.

Banks’ state shareholders can afford slow selldown

2 Mar 2023

The Belgian and Dutch governments took advantage of a market rally to offload chunks of BNP and ABN. Valuations have risen but are still low relative to lenders’ returns. That means Britain and Germany would be wise to move gradually with their NatWest and Commerzbank holdings.

Euronext CEO tests limits of M&A playbook

1 Mar 2023

Serial buyer Stéphane Boujnah’s exit from his $6 bln bid for Allfunds is a lucky escape. Its likely slim returns hardly justified the price. But he still needs to diversify from equities. A lack of targets and Euronext’s lowly valuation mean the next deal may not be any easier.

Euronext may have to dig deeper to snare Allfunds

22 Feb 2023

The 8 bln euro exchange offered 5.5 bln euros for the wealth technology group, the latest in a slew of deals. Boss Stéphane Boujnah would get much-needed diversification away from sluggish markets. Yet the price is not a knockout, and rivals like Deutsche Boerse could barge in.

Stellantis has well-padded airbag for car crunch

22 Feb 2023

The Jeep maker’s operating income hit record levels in 2022, but it faces weaker demand from punters and rising competition. Still, CEO Carlos Tavares’s cost cutting and low exposure to China give cause for positivity. Those pluses aren’t reflected in the Stellantis share price.

TCI’s Airbus fury may have collateral benefit

22 Feb 2023

Hedgie Chris Hohn says the plane maker’s plan to buy a 30% stake in Atos’s cyber arm will destroy value. He’s probably right, but private investors take a back seat in defence deals, where governments call the shots. His salvo might however help Airbus drive a harder bargain.

Hermès’ “MetaBirkin” win misses the big picture

17 Feb 2023

A court ruled an artist’s digital version of the $198 bln group’s iconic Birkin bag violated trademark rights. The verdict gives luxury firms more clout to commercially exploit the metaverse. Yet the jury is still out on whether such forays will be anything more than marketing.

TotalEnergies’ India squall hits at a tricky time

8 Feb 2023

France’s $154 bln group has put a hydrogen project with Gautam Adani on hold as he battles short-seller allegations. Total’s Indian exposure is bearable. But it highlights green execution risk just as investors question companies trying to combine renewables and fossil fuels.

BNP investors deserve bigger slice of M&A windfall

7 Feb 2023

CEO Jean-Laurent Bonnafé is sitting on a 12 bln euro jackpot after selling the French bank’s U.S. business. He’s earmarked most of that for new lending and investment. But BNP’s low valuation implies shareholders think it would be better off buying back more stock.

Rothschild buyout is right idea, but on the cheap

6 Feb 2023

The family vehicle that controls the 3 bln euro investment bank wants to take it private. That’s sensible: it gets short shrift from public markets and doesn’t need access to capital. Yet strip out a chunky dividend and the price is low, which may set up a battle with minorities.

Rejigged Renault-Nissan alliance looks headless

30 Jan 2023

The French and Japanese automakers clinched a deal to save their 24-year partnership. Renault will only vote 15% of its stake in Nissan, which now has a similar say in its partner. It avoids a messy divorce, but the lack of a clear leader may make decision-making trickier.

LVMH has smarter way to tackle succession dilemma

11 Jan 2023

Bernard Arnault picked his daughter Delphine to run the luxury giant’s Dior brand. If she proves her mettle, she may win the race among her siblings to eventually replace the 73-year-old tycoon. Naming one heir would help LVMH extend its success to the next generation.