European telcos’ new deal hopes face reality check 1 Mar 2024 Executives gathered in Barcelona this week to plead for lighter regulation, cheaper spectrum and some financial help. Policymakers are unlikely to agree. Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and others will have to convince investors that future growth requires more investment today.
Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
The green agenda’s best shot at a revival 13 Feb 2024 Economic distress prompted by globalisation undermines support for the energy transition, climate change economist Valentina Bosetti tells The Exchange podcast. That matters as key US and EU elections approach. Using proceeds from carbon taxes to address inequality is paramount.
Hermès’ winning style is hard to replicate 9 Feb 2024 The French seller of $10,000 Birkin bags has outshined rivals, shrugging off inflation fears and a slowing China. Elite shoppers who see its high-end leather products as a store of value create resilience. Gucci-like brands, more exposed to fashion moods, look more fragile.
Publicis lead over WPP looks hard to overturn 8 Feb 2024 The $25 bln French ad giant is growing faster than its $11 bln UK rival. Publicis’s relative lack of exposure to the tech sector is one key advantage, but it’s also run more efficiently and has made better strategic choices. WPP’s plan to stop the rot looks unlikely to do so.
A pinch of salt could unsettle electric-car order 7 Feb 2024 Carmakers Stellantis and BYD are betting on sodium-based batteries. The cells’ bulk and need for more frequent charging mean they may struggle to drive lithium tech off the road. But affordability and the prospect of loosening China’s grip on the industry will spur adoption.
Italy is fighting a rearguard battle on Stellantis 2 Feb 2024 Rome may invest in the $73 bln carmaker. Matching France’s 6% stake would cost 4 bln euros, hurting the government’s privatisation effort, and may spook Italian business. Saving jobs at the former Fiat is a natural concern, but Italy is no longer the group’s centre of gravity.
Deutsche Bank and BNP try on each other’s clothes 1 Feb 2024 The $27 bln lender is less highly valued than its $72 bln French peer and its recent past is more troubled. But Deutsche just upped its outlook, while BNP’s got worse. Neither are investor stars, but the German bank’s ambitions for its investment bank look easier to realise.
Iliad rebuff raises the bar for Vodafone in Italy 31 Jan 2024 The UK telco rejected its French rival’s 10 bln euro offer to merge operations in the tough southern European market, a fresh snub to Xavier Niel. CEO Margherita Della Valle needs to quickly plan another deal. Tie-ups with Telecom Italia, Swisscom or Wind all have complications.
Shipping giants can withstand Red Sea crisis 30 Jan 2024 Houthi attacks near the Suez Canal are slowing global trade. In this Exchange podcast, Zvi Schreiber, CEO of shipping platform Freightos, discusses how the sector was caught by surprise, but excess container ships and more air cargo capacity are helping limit the immediate pain.
Renault’s green IPO hitch is blessing in disguise 30 Jan 2024 The $11 bln French carmaker decided not to list electric-vehicle division Ampere, citing market headwinds. CEO de Meo had hoped to value it at up to 10 bln euros, but a public float never looked like a must-have. The move will allow him to focus on the unit’s ambitious targets.
Financial fallout is hardwired into new nuclear 26 Jan 2024 France’s EDF wants help with the costs of its Hinkley Point C plant, which now exceed 30 bln pounds. Britain can say no, but needs the power. Globally nuclear capacity is supposed to treble by 2050, but future investor, state and customer spats on overruns look inevitable.
LVMH could use a bit more transparency 25 Jan 2024 The $375 bln luxury group had a decent 2023, but shares are flagging after a decade-long surge. Boss Bernard Arnault hasn’t had to fret about being in investors’ good books. One way to cheer them now is to make it possible to see how well key brands like Louis Vuitton are doing.
Political push would unlock EU defence M&A spree 10 Jan 2024 Despite decades of gradual consolidation, Europe’s military industry is fragmented. The sound balance sheets of players like Thales or Leonardo make them fit to team up. A key merger hurdle would be removed if war at the borders pushes governments to align their defence policies.
Atos plea to creditor banks could backfire 3 Jan 2024 The 780 mln euro French IT group wants lenders to roll over its large debt pile. Plans to raise cash by selling Atos’s cybersecurity arm to Airbus suggest they should. But the company’s threats to seek legal protection if they don’t may give banks pause for thought.
Mega-bank M&A goes from impossible to imaginable 28 Dec 2023 After 2008, CEOs saw investment-bank deals as risky while regulators saw them as dangerous. UBS will prove otherwise if it safely and profitably absorbs Credit Suisse. Imitators will not get the same sweet deal, but targets like SocGen and Barclays at least come cheap.
Vodafone may have to answer Iliad’s Italian call 18 Dec 2023 French tycoon Xavier Niel’s new bid for his UK rival’s business in Italy values it at a chunky 10.5 bln euros. That’s near what he offered last year despite falling earnings at Vodafone’s local arm. CEO Margherita Della Valle may struggle to find a more attractive exit strategy.
Altice’s best hope will be a Middle East lifeline 18 Dec 2023 Telecoms tycoon Patrick Drahi is dismantling his empire to cope with a $60 bln debt wall. Attracting new investors may be tricky given low growth and a corruption scandal. Luckily Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are flush with cash and keen to grab Western assets.
Stellantis will cruise with GM and Ford 18 Dec 2023 The maker of Jeeps and Opels run by Carlos Tavares is one of Europe’s lowest-valued carmakers. Yet it generates much of its income in the US, and boasts industry-leading profit margins. Keeping a single New York listing could see its valuation match Detroit rivals.
EU accession carrot keeps Ukraine aid hopes alive 15 Dec 2023 Brussels has agreed to start membership talks with Kyiv, but Hungary blocked 50 bln euros earmarked for the war-torn country. The prospect of joining the 27-nation bloc matters more to Ukraine than the short-term financial setback, which can be overcome in the coming months.