Mega-bank M&A goes from impossible to imaginable 28 Dec 2023 After 2008, CEOs saw investment-bank deals as risky while regulators saw them as dangerous. UBS will prove otherwise if it safely and profitably absorbs Credit Suisse. Imitators will not get the same sweet deal, but targets like SocGen and Barclays at least come cheap.
Vodafone may have to answer Iliad’s Italian call 18 Dec 2023 French tycoon Xavier Niel’s new bid for his UK rival’s business in Italy values it at a chunky 10.5 bln euros. That’s near what he offered last year despite falling earnings at Vodafone’s local arm. CEO Margherita Della Valle may struggle to find a more attractive exit strategy.
Altice’s best hope will be a Middle East lifeline 18 Dec 2023 Telecoms tycoon Patrick Drahi is dismantling his empire to cope with a $60 bln debt wall. Attracting new investors may be tricky given low growth and a corruption scandal. Luckily Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are flush with cash and keen to grab Western assets.
Stellantis will cruise with GM and Ford 18 Dec 2023 The maker of Jeeps and Opels run by Carlos Tavares is one of Europe’s lowest-valued carmakers. Yet it generates much of its income in the US, and boasts industry-leading profit margins. Keeping a single New York listing could see its valuation match Detroit rivals.
EU accession carrot keeps Ukraine aid hopes alive 15 Dec 2023 Brussels has agreed to start membership talks with Kyiv, but Hungary blocked 50 bln euros earmarked for the war-torn country. The prospect of joining the 27-nation bloc matters more to Ukraine than the short-term financial setback, which can be overcome in the coming months.
Vivendi takes slow road to unleashing value 14 Dec 2023 The 10 bln euro French media group may list pay-TV arm Canal Plus and advertising group Havas. That might help controlling shareholder Vincent Bolloré cut Vivendi’s conglomerate discount. A quicker ploy would address the fact that the rump is still a disparate jumble of assets.
EU payments tie-up would build wider M&A defence 11 Dec 2023 Worldline’s market value has shrunk by 60% to $5 bln in a year, making it vulnerable to a takeover by US rivals. Teaming up with Italian peer Nexi is a worthy alternative. While sorting out the ownership structure looks tricky, the reward is greater regional clout and savings.
Capital clarity would speed up Alstom’s journey 7 Dec 2023 The French train maker must cut debt by 2 bln euros to repair its balance sheet. Selling assets worth at best 1 bln euros won’t be enough to restore investor credibility while cash flow stability remains in doubt. Delaying a capital call risks hampering the group’s revival.
Romanian telco upstart will be M&A party pooper 30 Nov 2023 Originally a mobile provider for Bucharest expats, Digi Communications is expanding across Europe. It is taking market share thanks to a low-cost model and as regulators force merging rivals to shed assets. A wave of consolidation in Spain and elsewhere may yield some surprises.
Media buyout would crown Bolloré’s empire-building 23 Nov 2023 The tycoon’s purchase of Hachette owner Lagardère is a smarter bet than his Italian foray. It offers good returns and will keep buyer Vivendi flush with cash. Using the funds to take the 9 bln euro media group private would square Vincent Bolloré’s M&A circle.
Branding’s corporate titans face moment of truth 22 Nov 2023 Sales volumes at consumer goods giants are falling for the first time this century. Branded goods sell well when quality is tangibly higher and price premiums slim. With neither now the case, the valuation of $296 bln Nestlé, and rivals, may shrink in line with its KitKats.
Renault electric acceleration can swerve IPO 15 Nov 2023 The French carmaker is eyeing 25 bln euros of revenue in 2031 for its battery ride unit Ampere. Capturing the full value of that through an IPO may be tricky in the short term given a sluggish EV market. A listing would be a distraction, and Renault doesn’t really need the money.
Sanofi sickness calls for activist tonic 2 Nov 2023 The pharma group lost nearly $27 bln of market value as it announced more investment in drugs. To keep investors happy, CEO Paul Hudson can sell its consumer business, step up dealmaking and buy back shares. Its long-suffering shareholder L’Oréal has reason to back bold action.
Europe’s oil majors are stuck as M&A party-poopers 26 Oct 2023 Exxon Mobil and Chevron’s respective decisions to double down on oil have put European peers Shell, BP and Total on the spot. Yet their lower valuations complicate share deals. The most obvious big targets for lower-carbon M&A are invitingly cheap, but look hard to get at.
Worldline crash is pivotal moment for payments 25 Oct 2023 The $7 bln French group’s shares fell 60% after it said sales would be hit by a call to ditch riskier merchants. Investors expect payment providers to be on top of flaky transactions. The fact that a leading player has had to rethink will scare them, and alert regulators.
Europe’s investment-bank push is far from a shove 25 Oct 2023 Deutsche Bank has bought a $500 mln UK boutique, BNP is bulking up in markets and Santander has hired 50 Credit Suisse bankers. Yet no one is trying to go back to 2010, when the region had 48% of the debt-trading business. That’s good for US rivals, and the Europeans’ investors.
Kering’s woes are tip of melting luxury iceberg 25 Oct 2023 Sales at Gucci’s $54 bln owner plunged 9% last quarter. Inflation suppressed less affluent shoppers’ appetite for its products and geopolitical risks are clouding its most coveted market - China. While a complex turnaround ups Kering’s challenge, bling rivals are also vulnerable.
Stars align for hard-nosed private equity M&A 17 Oct 2023 French investor Wendel is buying London-based rival IK Partners for $404 mln. Consolidation between buyout barons is rare but will become more common as firms sweat to raise funds. The cheap price on this deal shows it’s a good time to be a buyer.
Coty’s listing treatment is just cosmetic 26 Sep 2023 The $10 bln US-traded beauty firm is going against the tide with a dual listing in Paris. That may give it more visibility with European investors and the funds will cut its debt. But it won’t reduce the risk of its luxury clients boosting their own cosmetic and perfume arms.
SocGen chief gives investors risky cold shower 18 Sep 2023 The 19 bln euro French bank’s new CEO Slawomir Krupa wants his bank to run with lower costs by 2026. Société Générale’s below-par valuation might then recover. But lowly growth forecasts in the meantime make this an unappetising blend of thin gruel today, with only future hope.