Russia

En+ chair gets relatively meagre sanctions bonus

2 May 2019

The Russian energy group has given Chairman Greg Barker $4 mln for successfully lobbying against U.S. sanctions, Bloomberg says. En+’s market value is up $1.5 bln since it avoided the strictures. Paying 0.3 pct to detoxify its business is a reasonable exchange.

Oligarchs take U.S. sanctions risk in their stride

8 April 2019

The Russian owners of Evraz recently cut their stake below 50 pct, which offsets potential heat over their Kremlin links. That doesn’t mean fellow metal groups like Severstal need to follow suit. Still, Oleg Deripaska’s recent travails imply little cause for complacency.

Magnit’s Lenta counterpunch has yet to connect

5 April 2019

The Russian retailer has lobbed in a rival bid for its domestic rival. Magnit’s approach is fuzzy and barely more generous than oligarch Alexey Mordashov’s swoop for a 42 pct stake in Lenta. But it might prompt minority investors to think twice about which offer they back.

TPG leaves Russian retail with a whimper

2 April 2019

A decade after first investing, the buyout group is to sell its stake in retailer Lenta to tycoon Alexey Mordashov at an implied valuation of $1.7 bln. A 12 pct return is decent enough, but still below what TPG might have hoped for.

Oligarch’s Spanish bid is lesser of two evils

19 March 2019

A takeover by Mikhail Fridman’s LetterOne could leave investors in DIA with heavy losses. But supporting the management means backing a $680 mln rights issue – almost twice the supermarket’s market value. After accounting problems and profit warnings, the former looks preferable.

Arrests give investors new reason to avoid Russia

26 February 2019

Sanctions imposed on some well-connected oligarchs have already spooked foreign money managers. The detention of Baring Vostok executives including founder Michael Calvey highlights domestic dangers. Less capital will be willing to navigate the risks.

Cox: Impeachment hedge runs through Saudi Arabia

21 February 2019

As the U.S. special counsel’s work wraps up, investors are pondering how a move by Congress to oust President Donald Trump would affect financial markets. One of the more intriguing ideas is a hedge against the knock-on effect of impeachment on the Saudi-dominated oil market.

Thruppence: Who wins by sponsoring UK book prize?

29 January 2019

Man Group has ended its support for the UK’s prestigious Booker award. The hedge fund decided there were worthier recipients of its 1.6 mln pound annual cheque. Luckily for aspiring authors, Breakingviews columnists have a handy shortlist of those who could step into the breach.

Deripaska markdown will persist at En+ and Rusal

28 January 2019

The Russian metals groups have been freed from U.S. sanctions. Though their shares have perked up, they still trade below pre-sanctions level. Given the risk of new penalties should previous majority owner Oleg Deripaska exercise control, the valuation gap will linger.

Oleg Deripaska’s En+ deal is more sour than sweet

23 January 2019

The settlement that distanced the Russian oligarch from his power company has favourable aspects, the New York Times says. Certain provisions could even limit the financial hit from U.S. sanctions still in place against him. The overall outcome is, however, still pretty painful.

U.S. Oleg Deripaska deal tougher than it looks

20 December 2018

Washington’s decision to lift sanctions on En+ and allow the Russian oligarch to keep a 45 pct stake sounds lenient. Yet it looks difficult for Deripaska to sell his stake for cash or exercise decisive influence. After a messy beginning, the U.S. raid seems a qualified success.

Trump can get what he wants from Saudi in 2019

14 December 2018

As the year closes, oil prices have fallen to well below highs that riled the U.S. president. The risk is OPEC supply cuts and sanctions on Iran will send them back up. Yet scope to influence the kingdom on output – as well as its behaviour in the region - gives him a hedge.

Bush paid history’s economic dividends forward

1 December 2018

During the 41st U.S. president's one term, Soviet communism fell and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was foiled. The "kinder, gentler" Bush was the last of a Washington breed that sought compromise. He put country over party. His successors reaped, and then squandered, the benefits.

Viewsroom: The $230 bln scam rocking Nordic banks

25 October 2018

Danish lender Danske has already lost its chief executive on news that one of its Estonian branches was used to launder Russian money. Now Nordea and others are facing questions. Plus: investors drive car stocks into a ditch - and Daimler's and Ford's dividends look vulnerable.

Russia and Saudi’s oil stitch-up will unravel

4 October 2018

Moscow and Riyadh’s deal to boost crude output is the best chance of cooling red-hot prices. Yet the duo’s power is more limited than it appears. U.S. sanctions on Iran will dent the Islamic Republic’s supply faster than they can pump. Prices could still spike in the short term.

Russia will keep on mixing toys and politics

21 August 2018

Strong first-half sales at children’s store Detsky Mir will help Sistema, which needs to sell its stake after a costly $1.5 billion settlement with Rosneft. A less politically risky owner might help the rapidly growing toy group’s low valuation. Yet that’s in no way guaranteed.

Cox: When commemorating crises, think 20 not 10

15 August 2018

As the decennial anniversary of Lehman’s systemic collapse approaches, it’s worth recalling the one that preceded it. Russia’s 1998 default led to LTCM’s demise. Shockingly, that fiasco’s lessons went mostly unheeded until 2008. The key takeaway: there are always blind spots.

Putin has strong defences against U.S. debt siege

15 August 2018

The rouble has slumped on fears that Russia’s sovereign bonds will be next in the crosshairs of U.S. sanctions. That would cause a stink, but the bill may not pass into legislation. If it does, oil prices and Moscow’s low debt mean President Vladimir Putin can weather a crisis.

World Cup Soccernomics

29 May 2018

Who will lift soccer’s ultimate trophy in Russia this summer? Breakingviews ranked the 32 contenders according to player values, population, home support, and participation in the sport. Put them all together, and Germany is best placed to successfully defend its crown.

OPEC supply easing is more reset than U-turn

25 May 2018

Saudi Arabia and Russia may lift oil output by 1 million barrels per day. Though that could knock prices, production of the black stuff will be more in line with the cartel’s previously agreed curbs. It’s a more far-sighted plan than allowing the value of crude to keep rising.