Russia

Viewsroom: The $230 bln scam rocking Nordic banks

25 October 2018

Danish lender Danske has already lost its chief executive on news that one of its Estonian branches was used to launder Russian money. Now Nordea and others are facing questions. Plus: investors drive car stocks into a ditch - and Daimler's and Ford's dividends look vulnerable.

Russia and Saudi’s oil stitch-up will unravel

4 October 2018

Moscow and Riyadh’s deal to boost crude output is the best chance of cooling red-hot prices. Yet the duo’s power is more limited than it appears. U.S. sanctions on Iran will dent the Islamic Republic’s supply faster than they can pump. Prices could still spike in the short term.

Russia will keep on mixing toys and politics

21 August 2018

Strong first-half sales at children’s store Detsky Mir will help Sistema, which needs to sell its stake after a costly $1.5 billion settlement with Rosneft. A less politically risky owner might help the rapidly growing toy group’s low valuation. Yet that’s in no way guaranteed.

Cox: When commemorating crises, think 20 not 10

15 August 2018

As the decennial anniversary of Lehman’s systemic collapse approaches, it’s worth recalling the one that preceded it. Russia’s 1998 default led to LTCM’s demise. Shockingly, that fiasco’s lessons went mostly unheeded until 2008. The key takeaway: there are always blind spots.

Putin has strong defences against U.S. debt siege

15 August 2018

The rouble has slumped on fears that Russia’s sovereign bonds will be next in the crosshairs of U.S. sanctions. That would cause a stink, but the bill may not pass into legislation. If it does, oil prices and Moscow’s low debt mean President Vladimir Putin can weather a crisis.

World Cup Soccernomics

29 May 2018

Who will lift soccer’s ultimate trophy in Russia this summer? Breakingviews ranked the 32 contenders according to player values, population, home support, and participation in the sport. Put them all together, and Germany is best placed to successfully defend its crown.

OPEC supply easing is more reset than U-turn

25 May 2018

Saudi Arabia and Russia may lift oil output by 1 million barrels per day. Though that could knock prices, production of the black stuff will be more in line with the cartel’s previously agreed curbs. It’s a more far-sighted plan than allowing the value of crude to keep rising.

Emirates NBD’s Turkish deal riskier than it looks

22 May 2018

The Dubai-based lender is paying Russia’s Sberbank $3.2 bln for Denizbank, Turkey’s fifth-largest bank by assets. NBD is buying a high-return asset near book value, and gets to diversify its top line. Yet Turkey’s rising risks reduce the extent to which this is a bargain.

UK’s tough-guy act on Russia can only go so far

21 May 2018

Britain’s delay over the renewal of Roman Abramovich’s visa comes against the backdrop of a wider clampdown on Russian oligarchs. Its sanctions on Moscow, however, contain holes. Closing them requires EU support and a readiness for the City to lose out in the crossfire.

Qatar’s Rosneft stake is pricey insurance policy

5 May 2018

The Gulf state will take back 14 pct of the Russian state oil group after a $9 bln sale to China’s CEFC collapsed. That helps Qatar-backed Glencore keep a supply agreement with Rosneft. Firmer links with Moscow also give Saudi Arabia another reason to ease up on Doha.

Deripaska’s sanctions sale may have silver lining

27 April 2018

The Russian oligarch plans to reduce his stake in power and aluminium group En+ below 50 pct, after heat from U.S. sanctions. That risks locking in losses on shares that have halved since April 5. Still, if restrictions are eased, his remaining holding should recover.

U.S. sanctions rethink is only partly reassuring

24 April 2018

A Treasury decision to delay the effects of sanctions on Rusal and allow it to disentangle itself from Oleg Deripaska has boosted the shares of the Russian group. But it leaves U.S. policy harder to gauge. That doesn’t augur well for next month’s crunch decision on Iran.

Russia’s banks could once more be its airbag

16 April 2018

The Kremlin has already authorised short-term liquidity to metals group Rusal. If the U.S. sanctions net gets cast wider, Moscow could use its control of the big Russian banks to prop up stricken companies. After all, that’s what it did when things last got dicey in 2014.

Review: America’s founding was all about the money

13 April 2018

“New World, Inc.” explores the role of British merchant adventurers in laying the groundwork for the colonial settlements in Virginia and Plymouth. The book is a prequel of sorts to the Pilgrim creation myth that suggests Mammon, not religious freedom, drove America's creation.

Opacity makes U.S. sanctions on Russia more potent

11 April 2018

Rusal aluminium will be barred from London’s Metal Exchange, and the Russian group and parent En+ will be deleted from some stock indices. In theory, non-Americans should be able to deal with both. But fear of how rules will be enforced is compounding the pain of tough sanctions.

Hadas: Even Trump can’t make graft great again

11 April 2018

Resistance to corruption is evident in cases against ex-leaders of South Korea, Brazil and South Africa. Old royal privileges make no sense in modern economies. U.S. officials and the corporate elite have strayed, but rising middle classes will keep straightening out the crooked.

Glencore’s Rusal cloud has a silver lining

9 April 2018

The commodity trader is nursing a hit to its 9 percent stake in the Russian miner, whose shares have halved due to U.S. sanctions. But the loss is bearable and disruption to the aluminium market and growing protectionism may end up helping CEO Ivan Glasenberg’s trading business.

Russian stocks deliver sanctions face-palm moment

6 April 2018

The U.S. sanctioned Rusal and EN+, as well as related oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska. The danger that groups close to the Kremlin might get burned was pretty clear in EN+’s recent IPO prospectus. Governance and politics are as critical to such companies’ value as their operations.

Telegram sends warning to Wall St and Sand Hill Rd

3 April 2018

Russian entrepreneur Pavel Durov’s messaging service raised $1.7 bln from private sales of its crypto-currency this year, besting all but three IPOs. Booming coin offerings face more oversight and many ring hollow. But Durov’s tech chops should give bankers and VC firms pause.

UK’s best Russian riposte is hiding in plain sight

14 March 2018

Prime Minister Theresa May is expelling diplomats after Moscow ignored her ultimatum to explain its role in a nerve-agent attack in England. That is a fairly ineffective punishment. Better to use existing UK anti-corruption laws to target high-profile Russians with Kremlin links.