Russian WTO benefits could prove elusive 3 Nov 2011 A deal with Georgia means Russia should soon be invited to join the global trade body, ending an 18-year odyssey. This will be an important reform symbol. But without liberalisation measures at home, the much-touted benefits of membership may be elusive.
Brazil won’t solve all of TNK-BP’s problems 2 Nov 2011 The Anglo-Russian venture’s $1 billion deal to explore for oil in the Amazon is its most significant international foray. TNK-BP needs to diversify away from Russia, where its mature fields are declining. But such expansion is only a partial solution to its strategic dilemma.
Russian delay adds to Polyus UK listing concerns 28 Oct 2011 A regulatory delay to the gold miner’s London listing may have political motives. The timing is suggestive, coming after public outbursts by owner Mikhail Prokhorov. The setback underlines risks that make it unwise for London to waive its rules for Russian companies.
SAB’s $1.9 bln Turkish tie-up has double benefit 19 Oct 2011 The UK-listed brewer is swapping its Russian unit for a 24 percent stake in Turkey’s Efes. Though Russia is challenging for brewers, the combined business will have a broader base. And SAB is now in pole position if the families behind Turkey’s dominant beer-maker ever sell up.
UK listing hands credit to Russia’s steely Evraz 17 Oct 2011 Another Russian minerals company is heading for the UK’s FTSE 100. Commodity worries and the involvement of Roman Abramovich means investors will approach with caution. But the company’s size, diversity and exposure to infrastructure spending tempers doubts about Evraz.
Berezovsky-Abramovich duel not just about the past 13 Oct 2011 The London court battle between the oligarchs is lifting the lid on Russia’s business methods in the anarchic 1990s. But it is also a telling tale about the country’s business climate today. Property rights will be shaky as long as Russia’s legal system fails to protect them.
Russia and China close but not yet allies 12 Oct 2011 Putin’s visit to Beijing highlights the deepening co-operation between the two giants. But they remain worlds apart on big issues, and trade between them is small. Apparent agreement on issues like U.S. policy and Syria shouldn’t worry the world just yet.
Russian infrastructure dreams sink in Sochi slush 4 Oct 2011 The spiralling cost of the 2014 Winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort illustrates the chaos endemic to Russia’s much-hyped sporting and infrastructure projects. Far from being a boon to the economy and investors, these opaque free-for-alls are a recipe for financial disaster.
It’s FTSE or bust for Russian miners in London 30 Sep 2011 Polymetal has become the latest to seek a full premium listing in London. The precious metals miner is upping its free float to get into the FTSE 100, expanding the universe of investors and boosting liquidity. It’s a reminder that the attractions of just listing GDRs are fading.
Cyprus might wind up with two foreign bailouts 30 Sep 2011 The island state could soon get cheap loans from Russia, whose citizens hold large Cypriot bank deposits. That would help Cyprus’ anaemic economy recover from an explosion in July at its main power plant. But if Greece defaults, its banks may need a euro zone bailout too.
Gazprom raids escalate EU-Russia energy war 28 Sep 2011 An anti-trust investigation into the Russian gas giant’s European subsidiaries should be seen in the context of a wider diplomatic conflict. Moscow is obstructing the EU’s plans to import Caspian gas. It looks like the EU has found a way to retaliate. The row could worsen.
Under Putin’s "stability", Russian uncertainty 28 Sep 2011 Russia’s politics will not become more stable just because Vladimir Putin is running for president again. The abrupt sacking of Finance Minister Kudrin is yet another lesson in Russia’s unpredictability. This reflects deeper factors that won’t simply vanish after the election.
Putin’s third term undermined by Kudrin’s exit 26 Sep 2011 Russia’s finance minister has dismayed investors by saying he doesn’t want to serve in the next cabinet. Pique at not getting the premier’s job may be to blame. But Kudrin’s decision also reflects policy tensions. Without him, it will be tougher to keep Russia’s finances steady.
Putin’s presidential bid step backward for Russia 24 Sep 2011 The prime minister’s decision to run for president again, in place of his more reformist protégé Dmitry Medvedev, dashes hopes for reinvigorating the country’s economy, society and politics. Russia can look forward to a long period of creeping stagnation and seething discontent.
Russia’s rosy numbers can’t hide fiscal profligacy 22 Sep 2011 On the surface the modest deficits of the just-approved Russian three-year budget look reasonable. But these rosy projections are based on over-optimistic oil price assumptions. Russia faces a dangerous fiscal crunch if the crude market were to fall as many expect.
Ruling is blow for Yukos compensation bid 20 Sep 2011 The European Court of Human Rights has offered only weak support for the claim that the Russian government expropriated the Yukos oil company, and ruled in favour of Russia on crucial points. The legal battle isn’t over, but Russia will breathe a sigh of relief.
Prokhorov pays the price for irking Kremlin 15 Sep 2011 Three months after launching his political career, Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov has been forced out as the leader of a pro-business party. Even the tame oligarch was too independent for the Kremlin, belying hopes that President Medvedev can or will hasten political reform.
Ukraine-Russia gas spat likely to cost Gazprom 8 Sep 2011 Autumn is coming and Russia and Ukraine are again squabbling over gas. Neither has an interest in a rerun of the 2006 and 2008 supply disruptions. The likely outcome is that Russia lowers prices in return for political concessions. State-backed Gazprom would be the real loser.
BP needs to make unhappy TNK-BP marriage work 1 Sep 2011 There’s no easy way out of BP’s self-created mess in Russia. The oil group may be tempted to stop working with its difficult oligarch partners at TNK-BP. But a divorce would be difficult and costly. BP may be better off making the best of this troubled, yet lucrative, marriage.
Exxon’s Russian coup rubs salt in BP’s wounds 31 Aug 2011 The U.S. oil group’s Arctic exploration agreement with Rosneft mimics BP’s aborted deal but without the $16 bln share swap. Instead, there’s Russian access to U.S. drilling projects. Assuming no hidden snags, Exxon could become the big winner from BP’s botched Russian strategy.