Disputes give WTO chance to prove it has cojones 23 Aug 2012 Complaints lodged with the trade body have doubled this year, including a big case against Argentina. That’s to be expected as economic woes encourage protectionism. But with Russia joining, the WTO now includes the top 30 exporters. That may lend it some much-needed influence.
Exxon aims for smarter Russia bet as rivals fold 23 Aug 2012 ConocoPhillips’ exit from a JV means its 20-year Russian adventure is all but over. BP has had to retreat from some of its forays too. While making money, neither built the kind of business they hoped for. Armed with a few lessons and its world-beating clout, Exxon may do better.
Gu Kailai verdict may play better than Pussy Riot 20 Aug 2012 In some ways, China’s hasty murder conviction of a politician’s wife resembles Russia’s farcical prison sentence for a punk protest. But the Russian case inflames fear of excessive state control, which is bad for markets. In China, investors may be happy that order has prevailed.
Pussy Riot jailing recalls Russia’s icy past 17 Aug 2012 A Russian court has found the punk band’s three members guilty of hooliganism after staging an impromptu anti-Kremlin concert in a church. It’s yet another sign of Vladimir Putin’s regime’s hardening to dissent and liberalisation. This should matter to investors.
Partners’ noise can’t mask value for BP in Russia 1 Aug 2012 BP’s partners are playing hardball over their Russian joint venture. But a nixed dividend and legal noise are mostly distractions. TNK-BP’s core business shouldn’t be affected, and its valuation has become clearer. With Rosneft circling, BP should have a strong position.
BP finally gains leverage in Russian divorce 24 Jul 2012 The UK major’s estranged oligarch partners in TNK-BP have thwarted its ambitions in Russia. But BP now says Rosneft could buy its 50 pct stake. That would upset the other owners, who would lose influence. After months of stumbles, BP at last has a chance to regain the initiative.
Russian oil needs more than Putin’s tax tweak 18 Jul 2012 The oil reserves of Russia are twice those of the U.S. Yet output is only rising half as fast. A penalising tax code that discourages drilling for harder-to-reach oil is to blame. Making exceptions for the likes of Exxon is no substitute for bold reform.
Global warming adds to food inflation risk 13 Jul 2012 Corn prices spike after the hottest U.S. six months ever. Russian wheat is also afflicted. Does global warming threaten a food price shock? For now, the risk is mitigated by a big commodity price retreat from 2011’s speculative bubble. But in the long term, the threat is serious.
Arctic “Great Game” needs careful management 4 Jun 2012 The U.S., Russia and Canada are among the governments limbering up. Boundary rights in the Arctic are fuzzy, and potential benefits huge. Future conflicts over energy and other resources could turn nasty. An international effort to set firm rules is needed before it’s too late.
BP’s Russian exit would lead to existential limbo 1 Jun 2012 The UK oil major could turn grief into $20-$30 bln of cash if a deal materialises from the approaches for its half of the TNK-BP joint venture. But BP would then need to find new growth assets. And that could mean other difficult partners in challenging jurisdictions.
BP’s latest Russian spat spells more aggro 28 May 2012 The UK oil major is at odds with its oligarch partners in TNK-BP after one of them quit as the joint venture’s CEO. Mikhail Fridman’s exit could be a passing storm. But as BP’s force in Russia declines, such drama is more likely to presage a messy endgame to the partnership.
No comfort for investors in Putin’s new team 24 May 2012 Russia’s president and his predecessor/prime minister Dmitry Medvedev have formed a cabinet with a few more supposed liberals and fewer apparent hard-liners. But investors shouldn’t see it as a harbinger of major reforms. Putin will keep ruling with the same cadre of cronies.
New bank plan risks dilution of emerging influence 30 Mar 2012 The BRICS are mulling the creation of an institution with aims similar to the World Bank. But an Emerging World Bank may diffuse the effort, capital, and talent dedicated to global economic development. BRICS may also struggle to secure their rightful influence over the original.
Review: Putting a face on the Kremlin’s autocrat 23 Mar 2012 In a book that is both thoroughly reported and unashamedly militant, Masha Gessen throws unforgiving light on the mysteries, omissions and lies at the core of the Vladimir Putin story.
U.S.-Russian trade relations need serious reset 21 Mar 2012 The Jackson-Vanik amendment linking U.S. trade rules with the former USSR to emigration policies is obsolete and must be repealed. Some want it replaced with a new law pressuring Moscow on human rights. But bundling the two issues together is naive and counter-productive.
RUSAL oligarch row isn’t about governance 13 Mar 2012 Viktor Vekselberg, the chairman of RUSAL, is quitting and the aluminium giant’s controlling shareholder Oleg Deripaska says he would have been fired anyway. The row is the result of an industrial and financial dispute long in the making, with political undertones.
Reform no sure bet as winner Putin loses his grip 5 Mar 2012 Investors are wrong to hope that Vladimir Putin will use his new presidential mandate to bring reform and stability. Russia’s strongman isn’t likely to pursue policies which could speed up his political demise. But if he doesn’t reform, the end of his rule will not be peaceful.
Paranoid Putin could still sink Russian hopes 1 Mar 2012 Once elected president, Putin can choose to implement a reformist agenda. That would be the best choice for Russia. But if he lets his paranoid self take over, he will be tempted to prolong his rule at all costs. Then the nation would be headed for trouble.
Putin 2.0 could be reformist – if reason prevails 29 Feb 2012 The Russian economy’s need for foreign capital should leave Vladimir Putin with no other option than reform, once he is elected to a third presidential term on March 4. He should – finally – get serious about the rule of law. He may do so. That’s the reasonable scenario.
Something has got to give on Iraqi oil 9 Feb 2012 Total is expected to join Exxon Mobil in risking investments in southern Iraq by signing deals with the semi-autonomous Kurds in defiance of Baghdad. Statoil wants out of Iraq altogether. The oil giants are right to test Iraq’s resolve.