Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy 15 Apr 2024 The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia and China. But the Gaza war - and now a conflict between Iran and Israel - is distracting them. It has also undermined support from poorer nations and boosted Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.
Ukraine loan is matter of politics and accounting 25 Mar 2024 Lending the country $300 bln backed by its claim for war damages against Russia has several benefits compared to rival ideas for unlocking support. Kyiv’s allies would still need to find the cash, though. Here is how they could navigate the political and financial obstacles.
Europe will struggle to unite if Ukraine loses 11 Mar 2024 Jean Monnet, one of the European Union’s founders, predicted it ‘will be forged in crises’. Russian success in Ukraine could be the wake-up call the bloc needs to forge closer security ties. But it could also fragment under the strain. All the more reason to ramp up support now.
Kyiv’s defence requires European supply-side shock 5 Mar 2024 Europe is not producing the 2 mln artillery shells Ukraine needs, and missile plants are idle. Meanwhile, its stockpiles are shrinking, threatening the region’s ability to defend itself. To crank up production lines, manufacturers will need a steady flow of government orders.
How to solve Europe’s defence riddle 5 Mar 2024 At 360 bln euros, the bloc’s military expenses are three times Russia’s. Yet fragmented defence systems are a problem, Bruegel senior fellow Guntram Wolff tells The Exchange podcast. To improve scale and boost aid for Ukraine, Europe should consider more joint debt.
Europe defence push requires clearing M&A barriers 27 Feb 2024 The region is hiking military spending to aid Ukraine and become less dependent on the US. Yet governments are squandering investment on incompatible weapons and systems. Creating more regional champions, like aerospace giant Airbus and missile maker MBDA, is a top priority.
How a syndicated loan can funnel cash to Ukraine 26 Feb 2024 Western allies could extend credit backed by Kyiv’s claim for war damages against Russia, and then use $300 bln of frozen assets to pay off the loan if Moscow refuses to pay reparations. The widely recognised principle of ‘set-off’ can help overcome legal and practical hurdles.
Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
Reparation bonds could unlock $300 bln for Ukraine 15 Jan 2024 The US and EU are struggling to keep writing mega cheques to Kyiv and reluctant to hand over frozen Russian central bank assets. One alternative is for Ukraine to sell bonds backed by future claims for reparations. It could then use the cash to defend itself against Moscow.
Global polycrisis could yet have not-so-bad ending 8 Jan 2024 From war in Gaza and Ukraine to superpower rivalry, climate change and slow growth, there is a lot of danger in the world. The possible return of Donald Trump as US President is another risk. But there are more optimistic scenarios - and some silver linings in pessimistic ones.
Western support for Ukraine will wobble – but hold 22 Dec 2023 Foreign donors have given $66 bln in fiscal aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. A prolonged conflict will test the US and Europe’s solidarity with Kyiv. But allies will keep backing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy once they consider what will happen if they don’t.
US defense minnows will storm the barricades 20 Dec 2023 Even as conflict in Ukraine leads American arms makers to boost production, the political mood is turning against giants like Lockheed Martin. With half the $415 bln handed to American defense contractors not receiving a competitive bid, newcomers will make battlefield gains.
The West could live with a frozen Ukraine conflict 13 Nov 2023 For Kyiv and its allies a stalemate is not as good as a victory. Ukraine would need help shoring up its defences, and there’s a cost to maintaining sanctions against Russia. But triumph is unlikely and a deadlock would still mostly achieve the main goal: denying Moscow victory.
Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg 25 Oct 2023 Soaring military spending is Moscow’s main growth engine, leading to tight labour markets and 6% inflation. The government is strengthening its grip on a country gradually closing to the world and financially beholden to China. If peace returns, a collapse is a real risk.
How Ukraine’s banks can survive another war 19 Sep 2023 The country’s former central bank Governor Valeria Gontareva explains on The Exchange podcast how the radical steps implemented in 2014 helped Ukrainian lenders withstand the Russian invasion and kept the financial system afloat, and why Ukraine needs to keep reforming.
Shady export leaks suggest Russian sanctions work 29 Aug 2023 A suspicious bump in European exports to countries like Kazakhstan may be helping Moscow evade Western bans. The G7 price cap on Putin’s oil is also porous. But these cracks are marginal and help demonstrate the embargoes’ effectiveness – and why they can be tightened.
Black Sea wheat war is sideshow for grain deal 9 Aug 2023 Russia is bombing Ukraine’s Danube ports while Kyiv hits its enemy’s ships in the Black Sea. Bumper harvests can cushion the shock on global wheat prices. But it would be in the two warring countries’ interest to strike a new food transport pact to allow their lucrative exports.
Ukraine can rebuild without a Russian asset grab 30 Jun 2023 Using Moscow’s frozen assets to fund Kyiv’s $400 bln-plus recovery risks violating the rule of law. Suing Russian entities for the damages brought by the war is more promising. It allows Ukraine to build up claims that would be part of future peace talks.
Putin’s problems are only minor boost for Ukraine 29 Jun 2023 The Russian president restored a semblance of calm in Moscow after an aborted mutiny. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this means for the country’s invasion of its neighbour. It’s helpful, but not necessarily transformative, for Kyiv’s resistance.
Markets are far from pricing in peace 26 Jun 2023 Germany’s Rheinmetall and other defence shares fell after an aborted Russian mutiny. Domestic instability may shorten the Ukraine war, curtailing lucrative contracts. Yet chaos in Moscow, Western tensions with China and rising cyberthreats will keep the world amply unsafe.