Debt conundrum gives Italy weak hand in EU talks 18 May 2023 The pandemic and the war have taken the country’s indebtedness off investors’ radar. Yet high interest rates, slower growth and a budget deficit mean Rome will struggle to cut its fiscal burden. That makes it harder for PM Giorgia Meloni to ask for lenient European rules.
Debt-ceiling talks are more theater than substance 16 May 2023 The few areas being discussed on Tuesday – food stamps and drilling permits - are hot political buttons. But they would shrink the deficit by only 2%. Lawmakers either have a long way to go to solve the debt problem, or they are favoring pet projects at the expense of insolvency.
Paying by plastic gets problematically popular 15 May 2023 Credit card debt hit $1 trln among US borrowers and is growing at the fastest rate in two decades. The number of new accounts keeps rising, too, as Chase, Capital One and other fee-hungry banks race to sign up customers. The trend stores up trouble, and not just for cardholders.
EU debt’s credibility problem is worsening 9 May 2023 Borrowing costs of the bloc’s jointly issued bonds have risen above those of similarly rated sovereigns. The EU’s inability to deliver on promised joint revenues is exacerbating the impact of higher rates. That in turn reinforces investor fears that Brussels debt isn’t permanent.
Inflation’s real benefits beat theoretical costs 5 May 2023 A barrage of shocks have battered the world’s developed economies, leaving central bankers struggling to adapt. Allowing prices to rise not only eases the economic adjustment but shrinks big debt piles, argues Felix Martin. That’s helpful to everyone – except bond investors.
Buyout barons make bloody return in Europe 3 May 2023 Silver Lake and Bain are facing off to buy German company Software AG amid a revival in takeovers. Cheap stock prices mean deals can work despite debt constraints. But a limited pool of targets will make it hard to deploy $2 trln of dry powder, and stay disciplined.
Private equity is the new fuel for India’s tycoons 3 May 2023 Big conglomerates Reliance, Tata and Bharti are putting more skin in the game by looking to outside shareholders including tech giants and sovereign funds to finance new ventures. It heralds a shift from debt to equity, and towards better governance at the expense of lenders.
Capital Calls: BP, Japanese M&A 2 May 2023 Concise views on global finance: The oil giant will buy back $1.8 bln of shares over the next three months, which is less than investors hoped for; Astellas Pharma is making the most of cheap debt for its $5.9 bln pounce on U.S. eye-treatment specialist Iveric Bio.
A flawed but useful economic model for a bleak age 14 Apr 2023 Ideas become fashionable when they meet the needs of the era. John Cochrane’s fiscal theory, which states that governments ultimately determine the level of inflation, fits the bill. Despite its shortcomings, the model may be helpful, says Edward Chancellor.
Swedish real estate is canary in the coal mine 13 Apr 2023 The Nordic nation is at the sharp end of Europe’s real estate slowdown. Residential prices fell 15% last year, with offices and shops set to follow as debt costs surge. Its property firms with borrowings equivalent to 40% of GDP have little cushion if foreign bondholders panic.
Trouble lurks in Reliance’s happy crowd of lenders 6 Apr 2023 Some 55 banks are extending a $3 bln loan to the Indian retail-to-energy conglomerate. Mukesh Ambani’s highly-rated behemoth is a catch. Yet the pile-on points to a dearth of big corporate credit mandates. As much of India Inc deleverages apace, lenders can brace for more slack.
New EU debt rules have way to avoid past mistakes 4 Apr 2023 The European Union’s old stability pact was a poorly fitting straitjacket, yet recrafting it is politically fraught. The bloc now aims to replace strict diktats with medium-term goals. A successful framework can revive growth. But it will only work if countries follow it.
Bank health barometer could use own health warning 28 Mar 2023 Stock market investors interpreted last week’s jump in Deutsche Bank’s credit default swaps as a sign of distress. Yet thin trading in parts of the $12 trln market for speculating on creditworthiness can exaggerate moves. Add social media and it can feed self-fulfilling spirals.
Capital Calls: Microsoft/Activision, Subscriptions 24 Mar 2023 Concise views on global finance: The software giant convinced UK regulators to drop one of two major concerns about its $69 bln deal. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission has picked an easier — and less controversial — fight than its antitrust crackdown.
Swiss CoCo litigation may have a broader payoff 23 Mar 2023 Holders of Credit Suisse’s $17 bln contingent convertible bonds think authorities were wrong to wipe them out. A legal challenge will take years. Still, Bern might decide to placate angry investors. And a fight will discourage countries considering following the Swiss example.
Credit Suisse rescue sends shockwaves far and wide 23 Mar 2023 The ailing Swiss lender was saved by UBS with a $3 bln takeover. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate why the deal pushes up bank funding costs, how the new mega-lender affects Switzerland’s financial system, and why bank deposits are becoming less reliable.
Africa debt stalemate will reverberate across West 27 Feb 2023 More than half the countries in sub-Saharan Africa may default on loans worth over $300 bln. Those which sought IMF relief are awaiting the resolution of a standoff between Western lenders and China. The crisis will leave debtors and creditors worse off and fuel migration.
IAG takeoff weighed down by debt dilemma 24 Feb 2023 With net debt above its market value, the $9 bln British Airways owner could use a rights issue. But it’s also back in the black after a painful pandemic, and deals may yield cost savings. Boss Luis Gallego has to work out which path is likely to annoy long-term investors least.
Rolling EU debt would boost investment and markets 21 Feb 2023 European Union bonds to fund 900 bln euros in pandemic aid have cheered investors. The bloc needs ongoing debt sales to buoy traders’ confidence, invest cross-border and challenge the U.S. dollar. Separating borrowing plans from spending rows could make the politics possible.
China’s local debt bomb fuse starts offshore 21 Feb 2023 Regional financing vehicles owing $9 trln have tapped offshore bond markets after officials curbed domestic financing. Now that channel is narrowing too, which could topple some into default. Many are rated investment grade, making it a major headache for Beijing.