China Vanke looks too favoured to fail 6 Mar 2024 Investors are dumping the $14 bln developer’s bonds and stock on reports it wants to extend its debt. The firm says it can repay $630 mln due next week. And crucially, it has the effective backing of the Shenzhen government. Letting Vanke go under would send markets into a panic.
Excessive UK tax giveaways risk longer-term harm 5 Mar 2024 Finance minister Jeremy Hunt may spend some 15 bln pounds in pre-election fiscal gifts in Wednesday’s budget. He could be tempted to do more – and make life difficult for the next government – by further cutting public services. But that would put the country in a bind.
China’s economic managers have half a plan 5 Mar 2024 Beijing has kept last year's targets of 5% GDP growth and 3% inflation for 2024. Yet the economy has deteriorated, making them much harder to hit without stimulus. Plans to issue $139 bln of special bonds this year look promising, but details will be key to boosting confidence.
Japan faces a reckoning with its zombie companies 5 Mar 2024 Big firms are ready for the onset of higher wages and the end of negative rates. Smaller rivals, which employ 60% of workers, risk being crushed. One in six already struggles to cover interest payments. If too many fail, they can derail confidence and the economic recovery.
China’s financial clout will be hard to reverse 4 Mar 2024 Exports from the People’s Republic upended the world economy. Its $4.3 trln hoard of foreign assets is doing the same for global finance. As with trade, winding back the clock will not work. Multilateral problems require multilateral solutions.
Make in India can dial up Chinese characteristics 1 Mar 2024 India's $300 bln electronics dream is stuck on low-end work like assembling iPhones. To climb the manufacturing ladder, it can improve market access for its neighbour's firms in exchange for expertise. That will require officials to lower tariffs and open up to Chinese investment.
Hong Kong needs a purpose to steer its finances 29 Feb 2024 The Asian centre will log another budget deficit, and its fiscal reserve has nearly halved to $94 bln since 2018. Meanwhile structural issues, including a reliance on land sales, remain unresolved. The city is eroding its healthy buffers. It lacks a plan to make that worthwhile.
Why central banks risk making more mistakes 27 Feb 2024 Western rate-setters were late in fighting inflation. In this Exchange podcast, TS Lombard economists Dario Perkins and Davide Oneglia argue that, as price growth abates, the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank may be too slow in easing monetary policy.
How a syndicated loan can funnel cash to Ukraine 26 Feb 2024 Western allies could extend credit backed by Kyiv’s claim for war damages against Russia, and then use $300 bln of frozen assets to pay off the loan if Moscow refuses to pay reparations. The widely recognised principle of ‘set-off’ can help overcome legal and practical hurdles.
Macau’s casino comeback underwhelms 23 Feb 2024 Chinese tourists are shunning pricey overseas trips for destinations closer to home. That helped MGM, Wynn and peers lure an impressive 170,000 daily punters over the Spring Festival. Yet, those stocks have lagged Trip.com and other travel bets. Blame debt and a cloudier outlook.
Central banks’ waiting game plays with fire 21 Feb 2024 Western policymakers fret that if they cut rates too soon inflation may rebound. But keeping monetary policy tight has costs. Staying put as price growth abates means rate-setters squeeze consumers and companies, raising the odds of blowups in areas like commercial real estate.
Capital Calls: S&P/Visible Alpha 20 Feb 2024 Concise views on global finance: The financial analytics firm’s $500 mln bid for alternative data provider underscores the importance of bringing proprietary data to funds that trade on momentum. But as Lyft’s rally after a typo showed, automation has its limits.
China offers more New Year red flags than packets 19 Feb 2024 A record number of Chinese travelled for the holiday, trips were up 19% from 2019, but they spent less per journey. Overseas travel remains subdued. Consumer tastes are changing but the low confidence fuelling deflation is evident. On that front, there is limited festival cheer.
Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
UK growth alarm is best focused on the long term 15 Feb 2024 The shrinkage in Britain’s economy at the end of 2023 belies an improving climate. With falling inflation, low unemployment and a stirring housing market, rates may soon fall. Yet pre-election fiscal giveaways may impede a fix to the real issue: ongoing poor productivity growth.
Japan loses a big title, and perhaps its way 15 Feb 2024 A surprise technical recession means the country is no longer the world’s third-largest economy. Even more unnerving is a slew of weak data that make it harder for the central bank to end an era of ultra-low interest rates. Companies’ wage negotiations will be a deciding factor.
Indonesia votes for status quo, ups the ante 15 Feb 2024 Prabowo Subianto is the next president, polls show. He won after pledging to continue the policies of outgoing Joko Widodo. But the $1.4 trln economy, Southeast Asia's biggest, faces a slowing China and crashing nickel prices. He needs to pick a credible finance minister fast.
Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers 14 Feb 2024 Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.
Adani is a gift that will keep on giving 14 Feb 2024 Its flagship company is a top coal trader and is incubating new businesses from green power to airports. That will soon produce a wave of IPOs. Asia's richest man will keep testing and shaping India's $4 trln stock market for years to come.
US markets grapple with mysterious contradictions 13 Feb 2024 The S&P 500 Index hit new heights, led by tech stocks. At the same time, derivatives traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash rates. The latter will not happen without a recession. One of the camps is destined to be wrong. Equity investors should root for slower rate cuts.