Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
UK growth alarm is best focused on the long term 15 Feb 2024 The shrinkage in Britain’s economy at the end of 2023 belies an improving climate. With falling inflation, low unemployment and a stirring housing market, rates may soon fall. Yet pre-election fiscal giveaways may impede a fix to the real issue: ongoing poor productivity growth.
Japan loses a big title, and perhaps its way 15 Feb 2024 A surprise technical recession means the country is no longer the world’s third-largest economy. Even more unnerving is a slew of weak data that make it harder for the central bank to end an era of ultra-low interest rates. Companies’ wage negotiations will be a deciding factor.
Indonesia votes for status quo, ups the ante 15 Feb 2024 Prabowo Subianto is the next president, polls show. He won after pledging to continue the policies of outgoing Joko Widodo. But the $1.4 trln economy, Southeast Asia's biggest, faces a slowing China and crashing nickel prices. He needs to pick a credible finance minister fast.
Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers 14 Feb 2024 Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.
Adani is a gift that will keep on giving 14 Feb 2024 Its flagship company is a top coal trader and is incubating new businesses from green power to airports. That will soon produce a wave of IPOs. Asia's richest man will keep testing and shaping India's $4 trln stock market for years to come.
US markets grapple with mysterious contradictions 13 Feb 2024 The S&P 500 Index hit new heights, led by tech stocks. At the same time, derivatives traders expect the Federal Reserve to slash rates. The latter will not happen without a recession. One of the camps is destined to be wrong. Equity investors should root for slower rate cuts.
Europe’s wilting bourses get fresh cause to unite 12 Feb 2024 The likely de-listings of Italy’s Saras and Tod’s add to a wider exodus from euro zone stock exchanges. Part of the problem is a lack of new European companies to replace them. But Europe could also help itself if its equity market rules and trading were less fragmented.
Ignoring migration’s roots will cost the West dear 12 Feb 2024 Politicians in the US and Europe are devoting much energy to stopping illegal migrants. But this will achieve little unless they also tackle the drivers of migration: poverty, conflict, and climate change. Otherwise, politics in the rich world will become increasingly toxic.
EU ‘Italian Job’ starts with winning over citizens 6 Feb 2024 Former premiers Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta are studying how to boost the bloc’s competitiveness. Europe’s single market needs to adapt to global shifts in trade, energy, and industrial policy. But any overhaul will depend on persuading voters that the EU benefits them, too.
IMF’s China gloom gets lost in translation 5 Feb 2024 Beijing strikes an optimistic tone in its rebuttal to the fund's detailed assessment of the $18 trln economy, in particular on property and government debt. Countries rarely agree entirely with the IMF but China's position suggests President Xi Jinping is far from ready to blink.
Economic slack gives Bailey cover to cut rates 31 Jan 2024 The market wants the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs soon. Governor Andrew Bailey is set to keep them steady on Thursday because inflation remains high. Yet sub-par economic performance in the next few years could pave the way for easier monetary policy from May.
Close the Volcker playbook and open Greenspan’s 30 Jan 2024 Fed Chair Jay Powell wisely embraced Paul Volcker’s inflation-fighting approach from the early 1980s and quickly raised borrowing costs. With price pressures abating, it’s time to change tactics. Leaning into Alan Greenspan’s tactical 1995 interest rate cuts makes more sense now.
Revamp of the world order will have to wait 29 Jan 2024 Developing countries last week called for a rethink of global governance. While it’s possible to imagine an order more conducive to peace, justice and prosperity, the chances of creating it are slim. Better to shore up the existing multilateral system and wait for better times.
ECB is battling an imaginary wage spiral 24 Jan 2024 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to hold rates this week because she fears rising salaries will boost inflation. Yet euro zone workers are getting raises of just 3.8%, down from a year ago. Frankfurt may not want to cheer bigger pay, but it can ignore it.
Four-day week is clever fix to economic malaise 24 Jan 2024 Companies including EssilorLuxottica and Panasonic are experimenting with shorter working weeks. Pilot schemes have led to revenue increases, declines in burnout rates and lower churn. It’s an anti-inflationary way to keep staff happy and give them free time to consume more.
Fixed income investors have reasons to be fearful 23 Jan 2024 Uncertainty over the direction of inflation and monetary policy is buffeting markets. In this Exchange podcast Jim Grant, founder of ‘Grant’s Interest Rate Observer’, discusses his gloomy outlook for US bonds and sounds a warning about the risks of shadow banking.
Fractured world is changing investment geography 23 Jan 2024 Washington and Beijing’s quasi-Cold War, and rising protectionism, are already hurting foreign direct investment. Though some states are gaining from China’s falling FDI, overall cross-border flows are down. If Trump becomes US president, they will take another hit.
Strong yuan, not stock market, tops Xi’s wish list 23 Jan 2024 The State Council pledges it will promote a stable capital market. Yet Beijing is showing more urgency in supporting the yuan, weakened by foreign selling. A strong currency is central to President Xi Jinping’s goal to make China a financial power. A strong stock market can wait.
It will take more than Draghi to boost EU growth 22 Jan 2024 Europe can’t decide if it will be more competitive with open markets or heavily protected national champions, and it wants Mario Draghi to pick. Italy’s former PM is more likely to reflect than resolve tensions among members. But the bloc can’t up its game behind closed doors.