Russia exodus tests fund managers’ liquidity limit 2 Mar 2022 Western funds worth over $4 bln have suspended redemptions after Moscow froze equity trading, while MSCI may kick the country out of its emerging market benchmarks. The crisis once again exposes the flimsiness of asset managers’ promise that customers can sell when they want.
Capital Calls: Ford’s private equity playbook 2 Mar 2022 Concise views on global finance: The Detroit automaker’s reorganization plan makes explicit the goal of squeezing its traditional car business for cash to fund its electric future.
Capital Calls: Albertsons, Target 1 Mar 2022 Concise views on global finance: Supermarket chain Albertsons considers repackaging itself – again. Meanwhile, rival U.S. retailer Target beats earnings expectations, but with a performance at odds with its cut-price valuation.
India Insight: Digital diplomacy builds bridges 21 Feb 2022 Open architecture underpinning the country’s booming fintech market is being adopted by Nepal and partly by Bhutan. Google also recommended it to the U.S. Fed. It’s a cheaper way to court allies than China’s Belt and Road projects. The soft power returns are valuable too.
Capital Calls: EVs run over ethanol and gas 15 Feb 2022 Concise views on global finance: Farmers and oil barons are set for more fights after a recent study showed the biofuel is likely at least 24% more carbon-intensive than gasoline. They are missing the bigger threat.
Guest view: Fed hikes spell emerging-market strain 4 Feb 2022 Poorer indebted economies face growing difficulties as the U.S. Federal Reserve signals its readiness to raise interest rates. William Rhodes, former president of Citibank, and economist Stuart Mackintosh lay out what creditors, borrowers and the IMF can do to avert a crisis.
Ambani brings big guns to India’s streaming wars 28 Jan 2022 The Reliance boss is close to a tie-up with James Murdoch and Uday Shankar that will turn his TV network into a formidable rival to Disney, Sony-Zee and Amazon. It’s likely to add more ammunition to the battle for content. That will please viewers but also lead to overspending.
India Insight: Narendra Modi’s sale of the century 24 Jan 2022 The prime minister is taking a calculated risk with a record IPO of $200 bln Life Insurance Corp. It will attract millions of first-time investors and boost the country’s spending power. How, and whether, that will affect the financial system’s shock absorber is a big question.
Sri Lanka debt pain will go from China to Wall St 11 Jan 2022 The poster child for Beijing’s “debt-trap diplomacy” is asking for easier repayment terms amid a worsening financial crisis. Defaulting on U.S. dollar bonds may be a better option. That would help Colombo kick a credit addiction as worrying as its growing dependence on China.
Reliance channels its name in 40-year bond 6 Jan 2022 It sold the longest tenure paper by an Indian firm as part of a $4 bln deal, on the back of a big successful expansion into consumer businesses. Bagging cheap funding now looks smart. But as China’s tech upheaval shows, four decades is plenty to test India’s reliance on Reliance.
What our columnists got right and wrong in 2021 31 Dec 2021 We look back at a year as unpredictable as its predecessor. We foresaw an M&A surge, even if some of the deals we called for, like Tesla buying Daimler, failed to materialize. But we nailed a few biggies, like Grab’s moment in the limelight, inflation’s return and mRNA’s success.
Nubank becomes LatAm’s biggest, and riskiest, bank 9 Dec 2021 An IPO worth above $40 bln tops even Itaú Unibanco. At roughly 10 times tangible book value it’s a pricey bet that a Warren Buffett-backed Brazilian fintech can disrupt the region’s market before established players react, without missteps, and with immunity from economic perils.
Super-app Grab rides high into New York debut 1 Dec 2021 The Southeast Asian giant held firm in a difficult year. It’s on track to hit targets set from its record $31 bln SPAC merger, supporting a rich 13 times sales valuation multiple. Margins in its ride-hailing business show the promise of its food-delivery-to-fintech ambitions.
Telenor dials up another promising Asian deal 23 Nov 2021 Following its jumbo Malaysian merger, the Norwegian telecom operator plans to combine its Thai unit with a rival owned by conglomerate CP. There’s a 25% premium on offer to sell, but $2 bln of intended synergies from the first transaction suggest sticking around is a better call.
Paytm IPO misery leaves Indian tech looking West 18 Nov 2021 The Alibaba and SoftBank-backed fintech company plunged a bruising 24% on its debut, in contrast to huge first-day pops for Nykaa and Zomato. The market is mispricing tech IPOs. It revives the debate about listing in a New York market more accustomed to money-losing firms.
EU banks march east towards muddy investment case 15 Nov 2021 BBVA may take full control of its Turkish unit for 2.2 bln euros and KBC is spending 1 bln euros on a Bulgarian rival. There’s logic to the deals. But boosting emerging-market risk and geographic sprawl carries a valuation penalty. Investors would rather have the cash themselves.
Emerging economies face stages of inflation grief 16 Sep 2021 Central banks’ reactions to rising prices come in three steps, BNP Paribas reckons: denial, acceptance, and action. Brazil and Chile are further along, having hiked rates quickly as pressures mounted. Investors will prefer them to countries stuck in the first stage, like Turkey.
Thailand previews difficult life without tourists 6 May 2021 The country looks ill-prepared for its fresh wave of viral contagion. With a slow vaccine rollout, foreign visitors won’t return anytime soon. It needs to wean itself off this economic crutch, but political unrest deters overseas investment. That’s a trying combination.
Rosier IMF forecasts are riddled with inequalities 6 Apr 2021 The international lender upgraded its global growth forecasts for this year and next. But there is a gulf between haves and have-nots, across countries and within them. Some of the sound advice it is doling out to mitigate the problem may be hard for governments to implement.
Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets 25 Mar 2021 President Tayyip Erdogan’s abrupt firing of a third central bank governor forced investors to contemplate whether this might precipitate a run on financial assets in other developing markets, including South Africa. Breakingviews columnists discuss the implications.