Energy

Yahoo stock tumbles after disappointing quarter

19 Jul 2006

Yahoo's rising marketing costs pushed ebitda down 11% in the second quarter. But while these shaky results inevitably depressed Yahoo shares, it seemed premature for investors to punish Google shares too.

Morgan Stanley should take heed of BP’s troubles

18 Jul 2006

By buying midstream energy assets, the bank s traders may have a clearer window into how asset prices will change. But as BP s trading scandal illustrates this advantage can become a liability if the byproduct of knowledge is market manipulation.

Expensive oil may yet drag global growth

17 Jul 2006

The global economy took the fourfold increase in oil prices in its stride. But that was a time of easy money and petrodollar recycling. But now that interest rates are rising, further oil price rises could prove much trickier. The global economy took the recent increase in oil prices in its stride. But that was in a time of easy money and petrodollar recycling.

Rosneft prices at a chunky premium to Lukoil

14 Jul 2006

At the top of the range, the Russian oil firm is valued at a 20% premium to its privatelyowned peer, on a per barrel basis. Investors squeezed out by strategic and Russian buyers should ensure a healthy aftermarket too.

Oil majors change nationality

13 Jul 2006

Fifteen years ago, all the listed oil majors were Western. Now, with Rosneft s IPO, less than two thirds are. The fall of the West s oil dominance will accelerate. The question for investors is how to extract better governance in return for capital.

Rosneft investors: don’t expect miracles from Rudloff

12 Jul 2006

As the only nonRussian independent director at the oil group, the Swiss banker may push for governance norms. But will Rosneft listen? Rosneft hasn t been solicitous to investors during its IPO. There s no reason to believe it will change afterwards.

Greed triumphs over fear in Rosneft IPO

12 Jul 2006

The Russian oil group seems to have persuaded some institutional investors to pay top dollar for its shares. But that s more to do with not wanting to be left behind than anything else.

BP mulls buying Rosneft stake – exclusive

30 Jun 2006

At first glance it doesn t make sense. Why would the UK firm use its capital to buy a minority stake in an overpriced and controversial IPO? The answer is simple. It would be buying an insurance policy for its existing Russian assets.

BP trips up in the US – again

29 Jun 2006

The Texas refinery explosion, leaks from BP s Alaska pipeline and now charges that the oil giant manipulated the propane market. There is no simple reason for BP s long list of US problems. But the appointment of a new boss there shows BP is serious about fixing it.

Suez/GdF merger comes back from the dead

28 Jun 2006

The French cabinet s confirmation it will push ahead with the privatisation of GdF after the summer makes the deal much more likely. But two big obstacles remain: EU clearance and a renegotiation of the terms. Suez may yet be able to swing both in its favour.

Rosneft pushes investor appetite for risk to the limit

27 Jun 2006

Investors beware. The Russian oil company s prospectus has 25 pages of reasons not to buy the company. Some are more worrying than others. But at the heart is whether investors are willing to take a punt on the Russian state.

Rosneft plays hardball with $60bn IPO

26 Jun 2006

The Russian oil company isn t bending the knee to Western investors by offering its stock at a discount. In fact, it's asking for a premium. The reason? It has Asian strategic partners who it thinks will buy shares. That strengthens Rosneft s hand. But institutions should be wary.

Has Anadarko put itself in play?

23 Jun 2006

It s long been seen as a target for a Total or Shell. And the $23.3bn takeovers of KerrMcGee and Western highlight its low valuation. But they also artfully insulate Anadarko from a takeover. A buyer would have to bid for all three firms.

Energy giants place different bets on oil’s future

19 Jun 2006

The investment decisions of the oil majors vary with their judgement on the outcome of the energy boom. BP has taken a bearish view while ConocoPhillips believes high prices are here to stay.

Suez/GdF merger heading for the long grass

16 Jun 2006

With the French government in disarray, the chances of a deal going ahead this side of the 2007 French presidential election look remote. For Suez shareholders, that will come as a relief. They now have a chance to unlock the true value of the French utility.

Russia to test bear market with Rosneft IPO

15 Jun 2006

Moscow is right to push ahead. It has a political timetable to stick to, and the Bank of China float shows large IPOs can get away. But while the timetable is intact, there's still a lot of uncertainty about Rosneft s valuation.

Sarkozy pulls rug from under Suez/GdF deal

13 Jun 2006

The French interior minister has spoken out against the merger of Suez and Gaz de France, making it that much harder for it to go ahead. But his proposed alternative that the two groups should buy stakes in each other is crackers and will destroy massive shareholder value.

Enel’s Suez demands aren’t realistic

13 Jun 2006

The Italian utility is now looking for a political deal that will allow it to share Suez s Belgian subsidiary. But this makes no sense. Enel s Conti has weakened his position by appearing to back down on his threat to go hostile. His credibility is now on the line.

Is Browne right to expect lower oil prices?

12 Jun 2006

The BP chief doesn t think peak oil production is at hand. So he anticipates an oil price of $40 per barrel. Or even $25 in the long term. But is he right? Possibly, as far as supply and demand are concerned. But politics and inflation could get in the way. The BP chief sees a mediumterm oil price of $40 per barrel. And a possible fall to $25 in the long term. True, the current high price is stimulating supply and constraining demand. But politics will have the last word.

Verasun IPO fuelled by ethanol exuberance

12 Jun 2006

A crop of ethanol producers is fetching premium IPO valuations. But their growth is predicated on unsustainable ethanol prices. As Alan Greenspan noted this week, the economics of the business aren t there. Investors may be in for some nasty surprises.