Livedoor may be canary in tech coalmine 18 Jan 2006 The hyperbolic rise of Tokyo s favourite internet stock has spooky parallels with those of Softbank and Hikari Tsushin in the late 1990s. The unwinding of Softbank and Hikari signalled the end of the last tech bubble. What do Livedoor s problems say about internet 2.0?
Google’s latest deal confirms VC strategy 18 Jan 2006 Though dMarc seems an old economy company, the deal is more like a VC investment. Google might pay anywhere from $100m to over $1.2bn. Google is sensibly using incentives as part of its acquisition strategy. But on the other hand, it seems to be punting with its cash.
Google shows absurdity of price targets 17 Jan 2006 Analysts garner publicity with aggressive targets for speculative stocks. By stirring up excitement, these can become selffulfilling. Piper Jaffray put a $600 target on Google. Disgraced analyst Henry Blodget suggests $100. A case can also be made for a $25 target.
VNU won’t get much more than E8bn bid 16 Jan 2006 Private equity's nilpremium offer for the Dutch media group may look stingy. But VNU shares already price in some hopeful numbercrunching. If investors manage to squeeze another euro or two from private equity, they should opt for the clean exit.
French and Germans search for Eurogoogle 16 Jan 2006 Remember the Minitel? Or Groupe Bull? Past French attempts to combat US hegemony in high technology have been embarassing failures. The latest plan to come out of Paris and Berlin a statesponsored Google competitor called Quaero is unlikely to find any more success.
Sirius bets $600m-and-counting on US shock-jock 13 Jan 2006 US presenter Howard Stern has turned a puerile radio program into big subscriber numbers for the satellite radio company. That has made Stern, who was paid partly in stock, very rich. But Sirius's $8bn valuation makes no sense. If Stern is smart, he'll sell.
BT looks unlikely suitor for ITV 5 Jan 2006 A deal has attractions. It would ease ITV s fears about a lack of digital distribution and would turn BT into a real rival to NTL and BSkyB. But ITV looks expensive. In pursuing a deal BT might reawaken fears it is once again courting value destruction.
Private equity chases Daily Mail disposal 22 Dec 2005 Buyout firms are thought to be willing to offer up to £1.5bn for the Northcliffe stable of UK regional newspapers. That looks a fairly high price, given that regional newspapers aren't immune to the challenges facing the industry.
Premiere deals a blow to the IPO market 21 Dec 2005 The German TV group's shares have fallen 40% and are nearly half their March float price, after it lost exclusivity on football rights. The float got away largely on retail investor support. This shock may increase wariness of companies brought to market by private equity.
VNU rebel makes life tough for private equity bidders 16 Dec 2005 Private equity is circling the E7.5bn Dutch media group, drawn by its strong market position, turnaround potential and discredited bosses. But a rebel shareholder is doing its own shadow private equity exercise, so buyout houses don t snap VNU up on the cheap.
Thomson turnaround on track 13 Dec 2005 The French technology group came under fire when it admitted revenue growth had slowed. But the company is still heading in the right direction. And it has a lot of room to return cash to shareholders.
ProSieben owner pulls strings for E2.5bn deal 12 Dec 2005 Saban has warned off regulators seeking concessions from buyer Axel Springer: if they block the deal, ProSieben may be sold to foreigners. As if to give substance to this threat, France s TF1 has expressed interest. A coincidence? Maybe, but remember Saban sits on TF1's board.
Lazard takes flak for Icahn role 5 Dec 2005 Pioneering bankers have always been criticised by their peers. Think back to SG Warburg s introduction of the hostile takeover. Or recall Drexel s use of junk bonds to finance takeovers. With activism and hedge funds on the rise, Lazard may be carving a new niche.
Endemol confesses nerves in Big Brother diary room 13 Nov 2005 The Dutch reality TV company that is poised to float is being marketed with a very wide price range. That is partly a reflection of tough IPO markets. But it s also a sign of Telefonica s eagerness to sell the firm.
Time Warner shouldn’t fear letting go of AOL 11 Nov 2005 The group should not shy away from doing a portal deal that shifts control to an investment partner such as Yahoo! A rejuvenated strategy and management team, more than cash or stock, is what AOL needs above all.
Liberty Media brings back discredited tracking stocks 10 Nov 2005 The inscrutably complex US media group run by John Malone wants to simplify itself and create a succession plan. Neither its use of a tracking stock for its online investments nor its choice of exOracle CFO Greg Maffei will reassure investors.
Broadcasters run scared over falling ad revenues 10 Nov 2005 Major TV networks already face shrinking ad revenues. The growth in advertskipping digital video recorders will make things worse. But their efforts to find other revenue streams look haphazard so far.
VNU struggles to dump IMS 7 Nov 2005 The Dutch publisher says 48% of its shareholders won t support the deal under any circumstances . Yet it then goes on to say it may recast the merger. Why? Simple it needs IMS s agreement to break the deal.
Amazon and Google prepare for book battle 7 Nov 2005 The Amazon and Google digital book programs have been presented as occupying two sides of a philosophical debate. This is not so. In fact, they're fundamentally in harmony. Both are out to make money for themselves and content producers.
Blogs join the media mainstream 4 Nov 2005 Weblogs used to be written off as amateur ramblings. Now internet giants like Google, Yahoo and AOL are starting to pay attention to them. But that doesn t mean blogs will eclipse traditional media. There is room for both.