India entry into geopolitical storm will be costly 19 Sep 2023 New Delhi dismissed as ‘absurd’ Canada’s allegation of its involvement in a Sikh leader’s murder. Either way, the fallout will ripple through cabinets and boardrooms in the West. For global companies and money managers, it’s a reminder that de-risking from China is complicated.
China’s next chip battle is for the bottom line 19 Sep 2023 Huawei’s new smartphone proves the country can make cutting-edge hardware despite US restrictions. But it’s unclear if semiconductor provider SMIC can scale supply. Huawei’s flashy phones have hogged the limelight: SMIC’s shrinking margins deserve the same scrutiny.
Less ethical US foreign policy requires new logic 18 Sep 2023 When Joe Biden took office he promised to put human rights at the heart of international affairs. The president is now cosying up to regimes like Vietnam to contain China and build new supply chains. That makes sense, but Biden should explain his approach better, says Hugo Dixon.
Tariffs unfit to solve EU’s Chinese EV puzzle 13 Sep 2023 Ursula von der Leyen’s new anti-dumping investigation could result in punitive duties on China-made electric vehicles. But penalties are a bad fix for the EU’s green push. The bloc still needs the People’s Republic to help it phase out car pollution – and to buy Europe’s exports.
Erdogan’s orthodoxy creates new economic problems 13 Sep 2023 Turkey’s president finally ditched his love of low interest rates and pledged to curb inflation, currently at 59%. But Tayyip Erdogan still needs growth and will boost spending to get that. Soaring budget deficits and a weak currency will keep the economy under pressure.
Time to target fossil fuel demand, not supply 11 Sep 2023 Climate activists want countries and companies to stop producing oil, gas and coal. It would be more effective to focus on cutting demand for fossil fuels – by campaigning for carbon taxes, green subsidies and faster licences for renewable energy, says Hugo Dixon.
Capital Calls: UK wind 8 Sep 2023 Concise views on global finance: The country’s latest offshore wind auction predictably receives no bids, complicating its decarbonisation targets.
Capital Calls: Saudi oil gambit 6 Sep 2023 Concise views on global finance: The world's top crude exporter is extending its 1 million barrels a day production cuts until the end of 2023 to boost prices.
African coups will ramp up scramble for minerals 31 Aug 2023 Gabon’s government was overthrown by a military revolt, following similar unrest in Niger. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how instability in producers of key resources like manganese and uranium will lead global powers to hunt for more stable sources.
African coups will exacerbate grab for resources 30 Aug 2023 Military revolts in Niger and Gabon are destabilising two resource-rich nations. That’s bad news while the continent struggles with rising interest rates, no market funding and poor governance. Uncertainty will intensify global powers’ rivalry for control of oil and minerals.
Shady export leaks suggest Russian sanctions work 29 Aug 2023 A suspicious bump in European exports to countries like Kazakhstan may be helping Moscow evade Western bans. The G7 price cap on Putin’s oil is also porous. But these cracks are marginal and help demonstrate the embargoes’ effectiveness – and why they can be tightened.
Capital Calls: Pharma’s ills 28 Aug 2023 Concise views on global finance: The Biden Administration will announce 10 drugs that face Medicare price negotiations on Tuesday. The hits to individual firms will be manageable, but new announcements every year means over a $250 billion blow to the industry.
India is warming up to a cooling China 28 Aug 2023 Narendra Modi’s meeting with Xi Jinping in South Africa signals some thawing of financial ties hamstrung since 2020 by border tensions. Investments from the People’s Republic into its neighbour shrivelled thanks to a screening policy. That now looks ripe for fine-tuning.
Capital Calls: Better.com SPAC 25 Aug 2023 Concise views on global finance: From presidential hopefuls to a new blank-check acquisition, this week was a reminder that the speculative SPAC movement will be hard to kill.
Prigozhin exit leaves Putin’s weakness alive 24 Aug 2023 The apparent death of the former convict-turned-chief mercenary comes two months after his mutiny against the Kremlin. Prigozhin’s actions had raised doubts about the stability of the Putin regime and its capacity to get out of the Ukrainian morass. His exit leaves those intact.
China’s sliding currency is vote of no confidence 24 Aug 2023 The People’s Republic is scrambling to stop the yuan’s weakening against the US dollar. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss capital flight pressures and tepid investor interest in the world’s second largest economy, and what that means for the wider world.
Germany’s plight is good news for bond investors 24 Aug 2023 Yields on Berlin’s 10-year obligations have spiked this month, mirroring US ones. That looks overdone: Europe’s largest economy is slowing, inflation is falling and the central bank is unlikely to hike rates much more. Such Teutonic frailty should firm up debt valuations.
Thailand’s new CEO PM will find it hard to please 23 Aug 2023 Populists and the military voted in Srettha Thavisin, a tycoon. Markets are cheering the end of an impasse. But the $500 bln economy has scant room for handouts and crony capitalism that grew under the prior mogul-turned-leader Thaksin who is back from exile. Relief may be brief.
DeSantis chose wrong Disney battle, right war 22 Aug 2023 Homing in on the $157 billion entertainment company was politically foolish. But the Florida governor is right that Disney's sweetheart deal doesn't make sense. Other similar arrangements are finite and fairer, and still end up bad for states' finances.
Climate change eats into reinsurers shrinking pie 18 Aug 2023 Wildfires and other catastrophes caused $120 bln of damage in the first half of 2023, far above the 10-year average. Bigger losses allow groups like Swiss Re and Munich Re to raise prices. That may ultimately make cover harder to afford, forcing governments to step in instead.