Donors can digest Ukraine dam attack damage 21 Jun 2023 The destruction of the Kakhovka dam is a big blow to Kyiv and adds billions of dollars to its recovery bill. Yet international donors meeting this week in London can absorb the long-term shock. Especially if they take the assault as a sign of Russia’s rising military desperation.
US and China are decoupling, and it is permanent 19 Jun 2023 Forget de-risking or containment. In this Exchange podcast, Gavekal research director Chris Beddor explains the political framing of the slogans, unpicks changing trade and financial flows between the world’s two biggest economies and explains why China hasn’t retaliated more.
Pirelli boss turns de-risking into opportunity 19 Jun 2023 Rome has limited the power of the $5 bln tyremaker’s Chinese shareholder, without forcing it to sell. Pirelli and Italy get to de-risk China ties without burning too many bridges. But the real winner is CEO Marco Tronchetti Provera, who has again found a way to come out on top.
Green alliance crisis is more than just a US drama 19 Jun 2023 Most insurers have quit their industry’s UN-backed climate body. Sector specifics and fear of US lawsuits partly explain why, but so do European governments focusing on energy security rather than net-zero targets. The same dynamic may affect banks and fund managers.
Crypto is dead: long live crypto! 16 Jun 2023 Already reeling from fraud and falling prices, cryptocurrencies suffered a fatal blow with US charges against two leading exchanges. Yet Felix Martin argues that the demise of speculative digital tokens may help revive their original purpose as private global currencies.
Dutch chip export saga exposes EU shortcomings 13 Jun 2023 The Netherlands is limiting exports of high-end semiconductor gear to China, after a US push to curb Beijing’s AI and military prowess. While the EU will soon unveil a plan, it looks hard to strike the right power balance in the defense arena. Brussels needs a clearer role.
Berlusconi invented the entrepreneur as politician 12 Jun 2023 The tycoon-turned-Italian premier has died aged 86. He pioneered the use of wealth and media to achieve political power. Though his party is unlikely to survive his departure and his business empire is much weakened, his unorthodox methods spawned imitators across the West.
Capital Calls: UBS, Brookfield 9 Jun 2023 Concise views on global finance: The Swiss bank’s state loss guarantee is structured like an insurance policy against an unlikely event; the Canadian investment group teams up with UAE and Saudi investors to beat CVC’s consortium and win payments provider Network International.
Wildfires send American voters a smoke signal 8 Jun 2023 Haze from smoldering Canadian forests has blanketed U.S. cities, a reminder that air has no borders. Politicians struggle to be joined up on atmospheric issues. Companies have little incentive to. But toxic fog might spur a shift – albeit small – among the real decision-makers.
‘Reverse CFIUS’ threat will be deterrent enough 8 Jun 2023 Team Biden is nearly ready to unveil a plan to restrict some $15 bln of US investment in Chinese tech. The process probably will be even messier than one used to review inbound capital aimed at sensitive domestic sectors. Extra red tape alone, however, should serve its purpose.
Pirelli CEO pivots from globalisation to trade war 5 Jun 2023 Marco Tronchetti Provera teamed up with a Chinese buyer to take the tyremaker private in 2015. Now Sinochem’s 37% stake poses business and governance risks for the $5 bln company. An appeal to Italy’s nationalist government may help the veteran industrialist maintain control.
Greece’s reform labours are only half complete 5 Jun 2023 Investors like the euro zone’s former problem child, but a large current account deficit and corruption undermine its appeal. It’s not clear Kyriakos Mitsotakis will do what’s needed to boost savings and improve the rule of law if re-elected as prime minister, says Hugo Dixon.
Capital Calls: Turkey, Indivior 5 Jun 2023 Concise views on global finance: President Tayyip Erdogan’s new treasury minister will struggle to steer the $900 bln economy towards orthodox monetary policies; shares in the London-listed drugmaker jumped after it settled a lawsuit, making it more appealing to potential buyers.
President Dimon would be square peg in Oval hole 2 Jun 2023 JPMorgan’s longtime boss could get a head start on a 2024 White House run by capturing the powerful capitalist constituency. Beyond that, there are too many pitfalls. For one thing, he is an avowed free-enterpriser, a quality ill-suited for this particular executive office.
Biden’s America goes from oil guzzler to gusher 1 Jun 2023 The commodity’s main benchmark is including prices of oil from Texas, a reflection of a shift. Even as American demand stagnates, U.S.-based producers pump and export more. The president wants the country to be green. He can’t control the private industry that supports the world.
Treasury buyers live for the moment, unfortunately 1 Jun 2023 Markets tend to brush off near-disasters when it comes to pricing U.S. debt. Yields fell as Congress struck a deal to avoid default, even though the Treasury is prepping a borrowing spree and rates are staying stubbornly high. Investors’ fingers remain firmly stuck in their ears.
Global tax would spoil investors’ plastic party 1 Jun 2023 The world is drowning in waste, but demand for durable polymers is soaring. This may change if UN talks to end plastic pollution by 2040 succeed in introducing a levy. That will shrink a bonus market for Big Oil and cut packaging firms’ margins.
Overhauling US debt limit is an easy no-brainer 31 May 2023 Congress is again set to raise the cap on the country’s borrowing mere days before a default. President Joe Biden isn’t willing to abolish the ceiling, but every creditor has limits. A soft limit on the deficit, which balances the budget when crossed, would be a better safeguard.
Summer vote can dissipate Spain’s economic clouds 31 May 2023 Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is gambling on a snap general election after a rout in local polls. Frictions within his ruling coalition irked voters. Strong popular backing would give him the mandate to tackle the country’s fiscal woes, pension costs and high unemployment.
Elon Musk is Beijing’s ideal foreign investor 31 May 2023 Officials rolled out the red carpet for the billionaire’s first visit since 2020. His EV investments stimulated local brands, he’s made Twitter amenable to authoritarians, and he shows the People’s Republic is still investable. That buys Tesla lots of political cover in China.