EU funds can ease, not end common energy pain 18 May 2022 Brussels has earmarked 300 bln euros to cut fossil fuel ties with Russia. Rising rates make cheap, repurposed Covid-rescue loans more attractive to many EU states, increasing the chance they’ll be used. But higher fuel purchases will still have to come from national budgets.
Using Russian assets in Ukraine would be a mistake 17 May 2022 Seizing $200 bln of central bank reserves frozen by the EU and U.S. could provide financial relief and moral comfort to the war-torn country. But it would also trigger legal fights and give Russia even less reason to back down. Confiscation is no substitute for a realistic plan.
Western companies have 50 bad ways to leave Russia 16 May 2022 Multinationals can sell out like McDonald’s, shut down like Zara owner Inditex or shrink operations like Nestlé. Hopes of finding a Chinese or Indian buyer may prompt some to drag their heels. But the threat of forced nationalisation gives others an incentive to hurry.
Renault’s Russia exit plans mix logic and delusion 10 May 2022 The French carmaker could sell its Russian assets for a symbolic euro with a plan to buy them back at a later date. Its hope for a “return to normal” after the war in Ukraine sounds optimistic, if not delusional. But for now, Renault sheds a burden and avoids the Kremlin’s ire.
Europe may swap one energy dependency for another 9 May 2022 The bloc is ramping up investment in renewable sources to help kick its addiction to Russian oil and gas. Yet China currently controls at least 75% of the solar panel supply chain. To gain its energy freedom, Europe will also need to invest in manufacturing at home.
EU’s oil embargo is slave to volatile crude price 4 May 2022 The bloc wants to stop buying Russian exports within six months. That looks too slow to properly choke off funding for President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Yet going any faster could make crude prices spike, exacerbating Europe’s battle against inflation.
Russian nickel king laughs all the way to the bank 3 May 2022 Vladimir Potanin has snapped up his third financial asset since the war began. The Norilsk Nickel CEO has so far evaded U.S. sanctions despite links to President Putin. Dozens of Russian billionaires are in similar boats, poised to make out like bandits from the Western exodus.
Russia plays the fool in its own default theatre 3 May 2022 Moscow looks set to meet foreign currency bond payments, after saying a month ago it could only pay in roubles. High oil and gas prices mean it has ample revenue to meet its obligations. But the debt grandstanding may not yet be over, notably if the EU imposes an energy embargo.
Africa is imperfect solution to Europe’s gas woes 28 Apr 2022 The continent’s vast reserves and growing liquefied gas supplies can cut some of the bloc’s energy dependence on Russia. Yet lack of infrastructure, domestic needs and rigid contracts limit Africa’s ability to boost exports quickly. Political instability is a further headache.
Putin’s gas shock is acid test of EU unity 27 Apr 2022 In severing Polish and Bulgarian supply, the Russian leader shattered a fragile equilibrium that had seen European energy buyers fund his war. He hopes other EU states will carry on, dividing the bloc. Instead, Europe should backstop the costly process of ditching Moscow’s fuel.
Russia risk is ghost of banks’ sanctions future 22 Apr 2022 In the hunt for oligarchs and blacklisted firms, U.S. authorities are treating lenders as allies rather than adversaries. Prospective prosecutors may take a different view. Banks with past legal troubles might prefer to shun Russian business. Still, there are lots of grey areas.
Sanctions sound alert for art – and its regulators 20 Apr 2022 Private sales and the use of shell companies make for anonymity. Russians are not top of the art-world heap, but recently imposed financial constraints and the rise of digital assets could change that. U.S. oversight has not kept up. Dealers and watchdogs alike need to wise up.
IMF’s search for Ukraine help should start at home 19 Apr 2022 The Washington-based institution expects Russia’s invasion to cut global growth to 3.6% this year, while keeping inflation higher for longer. It also wants international cooperation to bolster Kyiv’s war-torn economy. In that regard, the fund’s own assistance is falling short.
India’s Russian oil binge carries hidden costs 14 Apr 2022 New Delhi is filling its boots with Moscow’s cheap crude, just as Europe and traders like Vitol start to turn away. The aggressive ramp-up carries longer-term risks. As a keen buyer, India will find it hard to get waivers from sanctions if the West targets Russia’s energy trade.
Stranded jets are least of plane lessors’ problems 14 Apr 2022 Big fleet-owners like AerCap may have to write off $10 bln of planes trapped due to Russian sanctions. Ultimately, though, insurers should cover their losses. A bigger brake on the aircraft-leasing industry’s rapid ascent is the rising cost of debt from jittery lenders.
Russian misinformation will target its economy too 12 Apr 2022 Sanctions may lop as much as 15% off output this year. But Kremlin propaganda and a media crackdown will keep negative GDP and other numbers hidden. That gives extra weight to unorthodox economic indicators like household budgets, freight traffic and online food sales.
SocGen avoids the worst in costly Russian exit 11 Apr 2022 The French bank is selling Rosbank back to the oligarch it bought the unit from 16 years ago. Despite a 3 bln euro writeoff, the hit to its capital ratio is less than half the worst-case scenario it outlined last month. It’s a fitting end to a long and unhappy Russian story.
Tiny Lithuania gives Germany a big gas lesson 11 Apr 2022 The Baltic state stopped buying Russian gas on April 1. The shutdown caps a decade of planning to break Moscow’s grip via liquefied shipments. Its greater needs and lack of import terminals worsen Germany’s pickle. But Vilnius’ roadmap can drastically reduce its travel time.
Putin’s finances can survive a European energy ban 8 Apr 2022 The Russian president may cut off gas to Europe, or even face a hydrocarbon export freeze himself. That could mean up to $50 bln less annual revenue, yet Moscow’s reserves and high oil prices will cushion the blow. An embargo would hurt Russia, but not bring Putin to his knees.
Telegram’s Russia performance is a one-man show 7 Apr 2022 Pavel Durov’s messaging app has resisted President Vladimir Putin’s edicts and survived them. The app’s popularity has surged, setting it up to double its $30 bln valuation. Yet for skeptics of transparency at Twitter or WhatsApp, Telegram arguably presents even starker risks.