Russia gets the Huawei treatment, on steroids 24 Feb 2022 The U.S. government plans to cut the country off from American microchips, telecoms gear and other items. It’s a grander version of the trade curbs that hobbled China’s telecom giant Huawei, and could sting the Russian economy more than financial sanctions.
American LNG burns even brighter 24 Feb 2022 Nearly 40% of European gas comes from Russia, and LNG facilities elsewhere are already largely booked. Still, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will boost booming liquefied gas exports. Replacing even part would mean long-term surety for firms like Cheniere itching to grow.
Viewsroom: Russia and Ukraine, Credit Suisse woes 24 Feb 2022 As President Vladimir Putin launches the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two and the West prepares its response, Dasha Afanasieva and Gina Chon discuss what comes next. And Liam Proud explains how an embarrassing data leak is the Swiss bank’s latest headache.
Ukraine war gives impetus to climate backsliders 24 Feb 2022 Politicians are supposed to be fast-tracking decarbonisation. Russia’s invasion may speed the long-term shift to renewable energy. But it could also empower fossil fuel fans to ease energy security fears via new supply. Investors, lured by high crude prices, may go along with it.
Bond market sends flawed signals on U.S. economy 24 Feb 2022 A dash to safe havens means Treasuries are in big demand. But the yield curve is sending the same messages it was before Russia invaded Ukraine: that Fed rate hikes may trigger recession and that policy rates won’t rise much above 2%. Both presumptions could be wrong.
West has some cover to ramp up Russian sanctions 24 Feb 2022 Sberbank and VTB halved after troops invaded Ukraine, suggesting Moscow’s banks and oligarchs may end up pariahs, like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A Russian tit-for-tat might hit European gas supplies. The one comfort is that end of winter makes it less of an immediate problem.
Putin prods planet into riskier post-pandemic funk 24 Feb 2022 The Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine exposes the limit of sanctions in deterring conflict. The soaring oil price will punch still-fragile economies as they recover from Covid-19, testing Western unity. Global markets for energy and technology face further fragmentation.
China has already won, and lost, in Ukraine 24 Feb 2022 Russia's assault embarrasses Beijing, which has perhaps inadvertently backed a foreign invasion despite its mantra of sovereign non-interference. But the war will distract the West and boost China’s leverage over a key energy supplier.
Oil’s 1970s parallels overlook key difference 23 Feb 2022 Crude prices are nudging $100 a barrel, the highest in more than seven years. Geopolitical tensions, tight supply, and high inflation invite comparisons with 1973, when oil costs quadrupled. This time, however, OPEC is more likely to ease a crisis than exacerbate it.
Hot war may get hotter through cyber battles 22 Feb 2022 Harsh Russian sanctions for invading Ukraine could cause collateral damage. As payback, Moscow may hack American energy firms and banks. U.S. agencies are shoring up cyber capabilities. But hackers only need to be lucky once, and retaliation leaves companies in the crossfire.
Risk of war implies lasting Russia discount 22 Feb 2022 Groups like Sberbank plunged after President Vladimir Putin sent tanks into two Ukrainian regions, although lame European sanctions helped them recover. Even if the Kremlin leader halts his military advance, the threat of tougher penalties will linger over Russian assets.
Oligarch sanctions with teeth may yet lack bite 17 Feb 2022 Britain has widened the ways rich Russians can effectively be banned from its shores via sanctions. While less bad than the worst U.S. strictures, they would make life much harder for Russia’s top companies and their overlords. But only if the UK actually uses its new powers.
Russian investors display war chat scepticism 14 Feb 2022 Global stocks dropped and government bonds rose after the U.S. said Moscow could invade Ukraine at any time. Though the rouble and shares in lender Sberbank declined, Russian assets aren’t pricing in the toughest economic sanctions. If war is imminent, there’s more pain to come.
Italian CEOs’ Putin call exposes European discord 26 Jan 2022 Rome is pushing the firms to scrap their virtual chat with the Russian leader. With their varying degrees of investment, trade and energy dependence, Europeans have more to lose from sanctions against Moscow than the United States. That lets Putin pit them all against each other.
Ukraine sabre-rattling hits Russian bank investors 20 Jan 2022 If President Vladimir Putin invades, the United States has vowed to punish the country’s lenders. Sberbank and VTB don’t need foreign funding and can count on state support. Yet tumbling stocks this year show that shareholders can still get crushed by diplomatic failure.
Russian expansion is a hard sell for UniCredit 13 Jan 2022 The Italian lender may buy Otkritie, which has a $7 bln book value. After a 2017 rescue, Russia’s seventh biggest bank is fast-growing, profitable and has a strong board. But competing with state peers will be tricky, especially if its parent shuns riskier corporate clients.
Europe tightens energy noose round its own neck 17 Dec 2021 Germany will not certify Nord Stream 2 until the second half of next year. The Baltic pipeline is a hugely flawed solution to Europe’s energy security shortcomings. But the main losers from delaying its launch are likely to be its own consumers, rather than Russia or Gazprom.
Prosus runs out of friends at Russia’s Facebook 8 Dec 2021 After a shareholder shimmy, VK is ending up in the arms of the state gas giant and a Putin ally. Delisting it to combine the $4 bln group with the duo’s media empire would unlock savings. It would also be a slap in the face to minorities like the $180 bln Dutch tech investor.
Belarus’ gas muscle-flexing is self-sabotage 16 Nov 2021 President Lukashenko may regret his threats to disrupt flows of Russian gas to Europe. The pipeline crossing his territory is already of waning importance. By potentially hastening the opening of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 line to Germany, he’s bringing forward its retirement.
Russian IPO is carsharing model’s crash test dummy 1 Nov 2021 Delimobil, which is listing in New York, maintains a fleet of 18,000 cars for short trips. It’s fast-growing and EBITDA positive, helped by municipalities offering cheap parking. Its model can accelerate in richer countries, but only if taxes make owning a car too expensive.