UK profit pain to spread beyond airlines, housing 27 Jun 2016 Warnings by British Airways’ owner IAG, easyJet and Foxtons show the referendum shock is already hitting some sectors hard. Yet travel and housing are both leading indicators for the wider economy. Investors can brace for worse, and safe havens are in short supply.
Italy best to avoid sneaky bank bailout 27 Jun 2016 The chaos from Britain’s vote to leave the EU could be a prime opportunity for Italy to dodge European rules on recapitalising lenders. Yet such a move might undermine the idea that creditors not taxpayers should stomach losses, and weaken the region’s half-baked banking union.
Dixon: Follow Merkel on Brexit – and keep cool 27 Jun 2016 While other EU leaders are pressing Britain for a quickie divorce, the German chancellor is advocating a more measured approach. This is right. There’s no need to rush as the EU can protect itself from the immediate fallout. There’s even a chance the UK could change its mind.
Japan could use British fallout as spur for action 27 Jun 2016 Market ructions are once again undermining Japan’s economic revival. That could help drive bolder reform, more state spending and looser monetary policy. Officials could even resort to selling yen. Amid so much uncertainty, though, it would be wise to keep some powder dry.
Bank shares take a bit of a random Brexit walk 24 Jun 2016 Globally, they’re down about 8 pct. Local pain explains Lloyds and Bank of Ireland. Sovereign debt exposure is a problem for Intesa Sanpaolo and others. Santander has a Spanish election to worry about. The likes of BofA and SocGen, though, seem swept up in a sea of confusion.
Lesson from Brexit: unthinkable isn’t unpriceable 24 Jun 2016 Britain’s referendum decision is an unwelcome blow to an already fragile world economy, but the real change is that it forces companies and investors to reconsider other once-remote risks. A Donald Trump presidency or the break-up of the euro zone may deserve more consideration.
Cameron exit sends UK towards investability vacuum 24 Jun 2016 Prime Minister David Cameron says he will resign. He and his finance minister, George Osborne, stood for competent economic management and stability. Britain lacks obvious replacements who have experience as well as mass appeal. The economy and UK assets will pay the price.
How Europe can contain damage from Brexit 24 Jun 2016 There are two ways for the EU to avoid copycat referendums. One is to doggedly insist that free movement and free trade are inseparable. The other is to flex that ideal. Doing so could neutralise populism and avoid a breakup of the euro zone.
Breakup of the UK is question of when, not if 24 Jun 2016 England saw 53 pct of voters opt to leave the EU, but in Scotland and Northern Ireland, a majority wanted to stay in. A second referendum on Scots leaving the UK now looks logical, while a united Ireland poll has been mooted. Economic issues will stop these occurring soon.
Britain has written a cheque it cannot cash 24 Jun 2016 The public wants to exit Europe. Political upheaval is likely. Beyond that, Britain’s future ties with the EU depend on whether it enters negotiations feeling economically strong or weak. But the victors will struggle to deliver on promises, and the country is deeply divided.
Market meltdown to test discredited central banks 24 Jun 2016 Asset price turmoil unleashed by Britain’s vote to leave the EU is a foretaste of things to come. Policymakers have their work cut out to pour oil over such troubled waters. Rate-setters have singularly failed to revive inflation despite their best efforts.
Cox: How about a referendum on ending referendums? 23 Jun 2016 Rather than take hard decisions, politicians are putting issues like Brexit, constitutional reform and even peace treaties directly to the people. How democracy works best is an ancient debate, but plebiscites undermine the representative variety. They’re also bad for business.
Tesco finds chink in cheap rivals’ armour 23 Jun 2016 The UK grocer delivered a second consecutive quarter of like-for-like sales growth. Its new strategy? Sell low-priced produce but brand it as if it were expensive. Simple as it sounds, shoppers are duly buying more goods. Tesco is finally getting to grips with its competition.
Britain’s EU vote: a guide for the perplexed 23 Jun 2016 The UK is voting on whether to leave the European Union. In many ways, Britain is already a euro-anomaly. No matter which way the public votes, the referendum will leave scars, and usher in big changes that go beyond the EU’s borders – whatever shape those may take.
“Bremain” Italy trade only for the fleet of foot 22 Jun 2016 Forget the pound, Italian debt could be a beneficiary if Britons vote to stay in their EU referendum. Fears over a European breakup should abate, and less money will flow into safe heavens like German debt. The snag is that Italy itself is a cauldron of political risk.
LSE-Deutsche Boerse hangs over Brexit precipice 22 Jun 2016 UK equities could crash if Britons vote to leave the European Union. Among other things, this could upend the carefully composed share split in the British and German exchanges’ merger. For Frankfurters carping at where the new company would be based, it could be the final straw.
Brexit: Making Sense of Britain’s EU Vote 21 Jun 2016 Breakingviews has covered the British referendum on EU membership from the start. Here’s a collection of our best articles - which should appeal to all but those Leave campaigners that dislike the opinion of “experts”.
Brexit is trigger for market liquidity migraine 20 Jun 2016 If asset managers are anxious before Britain’s EU vote, traders who handle their orders are just as troubled. Sterling’s 1992 ERM exit made them huge profits. In 2016, too-high volatility and growing illiquidity mean market-makers could struggle even to ensure normal service.
UK turmoil shows up markets as amoral and impotent 17 Jun 2016 Sterling and stocks rebounded due to speculation that the killing of a pro-EU British lawmaker might affect the outcome of a June 23 referendum. Traders trade on any scrap of information, even tragedy. In this case, they are more at the mercy of events than shaping them.
Pro-Brexit bankers risk repeating past errors 17 Jun 2016 The City may well suffer if Britain quits the EU, yet some financiers plan to vote Leave. Hopes the economy will flourish, as after sterling’s 1992 ERM exit, look optimistic. Betting that London can gain from a euro implosion, meanwhile, may just repeat wrong calls made pre-1999.