How the EU can help save Italy from itself 31 May 2018 A new radical government will cast doubt over euro membership and inflame migration tensions. Other EU countries could help ease voter discontent by tweaking the bloc’s fiscal rules, and taking more migrants. That won’t be easy, but it beats Italy leaving the single currency.
Only Italy can save itself from self-inflicted woe 29 May 2018 Investors are spooked by the prospect of a eurosceptic government pushing up debt, prompting an exit from the single currency. Contrary to 2011, Italy is the cause of the crisis, rather than a victim. A change of direction depends on voters, not the European Central Bank.
Turkey’s FX rot demands radical measures 23 May 2018 A massive one-off rate rise is the least it will take to halt the lira’s accelerating slide to new record lows against the dollar. Even then, investors might still fear President Tayyip Erdogan’s monetary policy meddling. Capital controls would then grow more likely.
Mark Carney may flummox markets again 10 May 2018 The Bank of England chief’s latest comments made investors doubt he will tighten monetary policy this year. Such scepticism is overdone. The economy doesn’t have to grow very fast to generate inflation and the jobless rate is very low. Rate expectations could shift once more.
Argentine central bank’s grip holds – for now 7 May 2018 Sharp rate hikes to 40 pct last week halted a slide in the peso. A tough stance against inflation and Mauricio Macri’s relative fiscal discipline are needed for long-term economic health. But tightening the screws puts the president’s domestic popularity and policies at risk.
Nigeria’s FX reserve fetish is bad for growth 30 Apr 2018 President Muhammadu Buhari is vaunting a rapid rise in foreign exchange reserves. A decent war chest is worth having in case the naira needs defending. But accumulating a vast pile of dollars will deprive the economy of the hard currency it needs to keep growing and create jobs.
Mark Carney can delay UK rate rise with impunity 27 Apr 2018 A sharp slowdown in UK growth is enough reason for the Bank of England boss to defer monetary tightening. He has further grounds to hesitate since euro zone activity has slackened, with French growth more than halving in the first quarter. Discretion is the better part of valour.
Jakarta is in a bind over interest rates 27 Apr 2018 Indonesian stocks are sliding alongside the rupiah, as higher U.S. yields prompt investors to sell out. But growth is tepid in Southeast Asia’s largest economy and an election looms. So the central bank is unlikely to follow through on talk of a hike, unless conditions worsen.
Mario Draghi struggles to ditch post-crisis policy 26 Apr 2018 Euro-zone growth is slowing before the European Central Bank boss can end asset purchases or join the Fed’s Jerome Powell in raising rates. One-off factors may be to blame now but a downturn is inevitable. Unusual policy will be the norm rather than the aberration in Europe.
Hadas: Debt overload is an easy problem to solve 25 Apr 2018 Three financial revolutions would be enough to bring down debt. Tax corporate debts, don’t subsidise them. Let the public share unearned gains on land. And replace government debt with newly printed money. These ideas may sound too radical – until the next mega-crisis arrives.
Swiss central bank gets FX wish three years late 20 Apr 2018 The franc has weakened to 1.20 against the euro for the first time since the Swiss National Bank ditched its cap on the currency in January 2015. Several factors could explain why. Policymakers are unlikely to care much about the reasons given the moves may help revive inflation.
Hong Kong’s dollar peg looks durable 13 Apr 2018 The monetary authority stepped in to prop up the local currency, the first such intervention under a system that dates to 2005. Long term, the territory will probably ditch its tie to the U.S. dollar and track the yuan instead. But the peg faces no serious threat for now.
Trillion-dollar U.S. deficits are funding headwind 10 Apr 2018 Recent tax cuts will push the annual federal budget shortfall into 13 figures and debt to nearly 100 pct of GDP by 2028, Congress’s number-crunchers reckon. The forecast, on the eve of a big auction of Treasury securities, gives investors one more reason to demand higher yields.
Quest for central bank transparency has limits 5 Apr 2018 UK rate-setters are debating the merits of more openness, by for example issuing official interest rate forecasts, the Financial Times reports. More information may not mean more insight. After all, good policymakers change their minds when the economic environment does.
Wells Fargo is wrong objection to NY Fed candidate 27 Mar 2018 John Williams, who heads the U.S. central bank’s San Francisco operation, may be close to the top Liberty Street job. Wells sinned on his watch, as Senator Elizabeth Warren has noted, but other watchdogs deserve blame. For anyone looking, there are better arguments against him.
Stars align for Mark Carney to raise rates again 22 Mar 2018 UK inflation is high enough for the Bank of England boss to further tighten policy in a couple of months but not so high as to hurt consumer demand, especially as wages are picking up. And Brexit poses less of an immediate danger. Politics and economics are both on Carney’s side.
New Fed chief leaves more questions than answers 21 Mar 2018 Jay Powell sold a rate hike and hawkish economic outlook with dovish language at his first policy meeting. The central bank is divided over how low unemployment can go and whether tax cuts will spark inflation. The chair’s confident showing may buy time to resolve the tensions.
U.S. rate hike risks global fallout 21 Mar 2018 Gulf states, Hong Kong and others that peg their currency to the dollar worry that copying Fed moves will dent growth. But with five more hikes expected by the end of 2019, not doing so risks the ire of financial markets. It's a tricky dance that even China may be dragged into.
Review: The flimsy finances behind China’s miracle 9 Mar 2018 The People’s Republic has long defied the economic doom-mongers. In “China’s Great Wall of Debt”, Dinny McMahon exposes the fragility and contradictions of the country’s growth model. It’s a detailed and original reality check on the latest bout of China hype.
Viewsroom: Trump slaps tariff fear on markets 8 Mar 2018 Imposing levies on steel and aluminum has lost the president his economic adviser, ex-Goldman No. 2 Gary Cohn. That has shocked investors out of complacency. Also: Italy’s elections leave fringe parties in charge. And big deals may be back on the agenda for the mining industry.