The spectre of Donald Trump hangs over Davos 12 Jan 2024 The former US president is not among the 2,800 business and political leaders converging on the Swiss resort. But his possible return to power will pervade debates about Ukraine, China, and climate change. In 2016, Davos laughed off the idea of a Trump presidency. Not this time.
Political push would unlock EU defence M&A spree 10 Jan 2024 Despite decades of gradual consolidation, Europe’s military industry is fragmented. The sound balance sheets of players like Thales or Leonardo make them fit to team up. A key merger hurdle would be removed if war at the borders pushes governments to align their defence policies.
EU hitches anti-Orbán plot to Draghi trial balloon 9 Jan 2024 European Council chief Charles Michel’s decision to leave early means Hungary’s Viktor Orbán could take charge of leaders’ meetings and represent them in high-profile summits. Doing whatever it takes to fill the void, even tapping Italy’s former PM for a short time, makes sense.
Rich nations can learn from Ireland’s health shift 9 Jan 2024 Dublin wants to build a universal healthcare system. Phasing out a US-like insurance model is bold and could require 20 bln euros from the state. Countries thinking of similar overhauls to deal with waiting lists and ageing citizens will need money and political consensus.
Taiwan elections can weaken an unstable status quo 4 Jan 2024 The Democratic Progressives are vying for a third term but another re-election of the independence leaning party will frustrate China. While market indicators are buoyant, more of the same in the island's local politics can make Sino-US ties worse.
Green backlash will spread to European Parliament 3 Jan 2024 Pro-environment parties risk losing clout in June’s pan-EU vote. That will reinforce a strengthening bond between conservatives and far-right forces wary of the industrial and social cost of the clean transition. The EU’s ambitious Green Deal will get a paler hue.
China policy risk returns as stock market grinch 22 Dec 2023 Shares in Tencent and NetEase plunged after surprise new curbs from Beijing on video-game spending and rewards. It smacks of President Xi Jinping’s crackdowns on private tutoring, tech and other sectors – and gives overseas investors another reason to be wary jumping back in.
China’s automakers will defy the great uncoupling 22 Dec 2023 There are industries, like microchips, where American trade warriors can cleave friendly supply chains from China. Cars aren’t one of them. Despite $80 bln of announced investments, lagging tech holds US champions back. In 2024, that will prove the limits of protectionism.
EU debt rules offer unity at price of relevance 21 Dec 2023 European Union finance chiefs reached a deal on a new fiscal pact, breaking a post-pandemic stalemate. Germany won austere deficit and debt targets, yet pain will be diluted by French-fought delays and concessions. The net result is an overly complex system that may not work.
Big companies will raid government for future CEOs 20 Dec 2023 There’s a long history of businesspeople going into politics. Now sanctions and subsidies are showing boardrooms the value of diplomatic skills. Lazard CEO Peter Orszag and Legal & General Chairman John Kingman worked in government. Others will follow through the revolving door.
Suez crisis may finally jolt Egypt out of stasis 20 Dec 2023 Cairo was wobbling even before militant attacks threatened its $9 bln of annual revenue from the Suez Canal. With inflation at 36%, re-elected President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s foreign aid needs are spiking. He will need to stop dawdling on reforms required by donors like the IMF.
Spain’s Saudi telecoms shield is pricey and futile 20 Dec 2023 Madrid is buying 10% of Telefonica to protect it from the kingdom’s stake-building. But Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez already has tools to block the Gulf investor taking a board seat or a bigger share. Splurging taxpayer money unnecessarily looks risky for a new government.
New Red Sea blockage may be both longer and milder 19 Dec 2023 Militant attacks have forced groups from Maersk to BP to avoid the conduit for over 10% of world trade. Re-routing round Africa will hike fuel costs and could last six months. Yet weaker global demand relative to a six-day 2021 stoppage may limit the wider economic fallout.
Saudi’s best foreign investment will be in Gaza 19 Dec 2023 The kingdom is known for flashy punts on Western sports and blue chips. But its real need is foreign cash to help diversify away from oil. If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were to use Saudi money to help Palestinians rebuild post-war, US goodwill may prompt an FDI spike.
Russia’s economy will suffer from brawl at the top 18 Dec 2023 The CEO of state-held oil major Rosneft slammed the central bank’s high interest rates. President Vladimir Putin has long thrived on tensions between hardliners and the few remaining technocrats. But with Moscow in permanent crisis mode, the high-level conflict spells trouble.
Polls may imperil emerging Asia’s policy stability 18 Dec 2023 India and Indonesia have had a decade of relative predictability under leaders Narendra Modi and Joko Widodo. Elections in 2024 could upend that and undermine the lofty valuations of local stock markets. Global investors, and 1.7 bln people, should temper expectations.
EU accession carrot keeps Ukraine aid hopes alive 15 Dec 2023 Brussels has agreed to start membership talks with Kyiv, but Hungary blocked 50 bln euros earmarked for the war-torn country. The prospect of joining the 27-nation bloc matters more to Ukraine than the short-term financial setback, which can be overcome in the coming months.
Powell was pragmatic; Lagarde will have to be 14 Dec 2023 The European Central Bank, like the US Federal Reserve, left its rates unchanged. But unlike Fed Chair Jay Powell, ECB boss Christine Lagarde didn’t imply that lower inflation meant looser monetary policy. A slowing economy and abating price pressures will push her there in 2024.
EU’s Russian asset grab would backfire 14 Dec 2023 Brussels is asking EU governments to funnel to Ukraine the returns on some 180 bln euros of frozen Russian assets. That would only marginally help Kyiv, even if Western support seems to be wavering. And it would open a legal and political can of worms.
China’s lead in Southeast Asia appears fragile 14 Dec 2023 Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam this week shows he is reinforcing alliances in the region as fast as he’s letting others slide. Yet while China's $722 bln trade relationship with the bloc dominates, distrust of the country is rising too. That’s a bad signal for future business.