Capital Calls: Birkenstock 19 Jan 2024 Concise views on global finance: The German sandal maker gets a reality check from investors three months after its much-hyped IPO.
Global risk pile-up penetrates Davos bubble 18 Jan 2024 Nearly 3,000 movers and shakers have converged on the Swiss resort amid crises in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Davos-goers unable to ignore these perils are nervously anticipating another Trump presidency.
China’s war on corruption turns into high wire act 18 Jan 2024 Xi Jinping is declaring victory in his decade-long war on graft. He has made more progress than India and the US over the same period by some global standards. Yet the decision to double down on cleaning up the finance sector when the economy is weak could come at a heavy cost.
US Steel deal stokes fiery stakeholder standoff 17 Jan 2024 The $14 bln sale to Nippon Steel is riling workers and politicians. A rival Cleveland-Cliffs bid will attract trustbusters. Staying independent would anger shareholders and squeeze automakers. It epitomizes today’s fraught M&A, but the Japanese buyer is in the strongest position.
Time for EU to assist its solar panel industry 17 Jan 2024 Meyer Burger’s stock tanked 35% after it threatened to shut Europe’s biggest photovoltaic plant unless it gets German incentives. Stuck between US subsidies and cheap Chinese products, continental players are weak. Turning support for fossil fuels into green aid would help.
Economics is pushing US swing voters to pick Trump 16 Jan 2024 The real estate mogul won the Iowa caucus, the first Republican primary in the presidential race. The midwestern state is not a battleground, but hotly contested areas favor him over President Joe Biden. That may be because their residents feel poorer than four years ago.
Reparation bonds could unlock $300 bln for Ukraine 15 Jan 2024 The US and EU are struggling to keep writing mega cheques to Kyiv and reluctant to hand over frozen Russian central bank assets. One alternative is for Ukraine to sell bonds backed by future claims for reparations. It could then use the cash to defend itself against Moscow.
Taiwan navigates new waters with old map 15 Jan 2024 Lai Ching-te has won his independence-leaning party an unprecedented third term. That tees up a deterioration in the island’s relationship with China and will refocus global minds on the costs of a possible confrontation. It puts pressure on Lai to find new ways to minimise risks.
Fujitsu’s tricky UK dilemma: double or quits 12 Jan 2024 The $29 bln Japanese firm’s faulty accounting system led to the convictions of Post Office workers. With 7% of global sales in Britain, Fujitsu may need to offer compensation. But if its reputation means it can’t secure future state contracts, that might not be worth it.
The spectre of Donald Trump hangs over Davos 12 Jan 2024 The former US president is not among the 2,800 business and political leaders converging on the Swiss resort. But his possible return to power will pervade debates about Ukraine, China, and climate change. In 2016, Davos laughed off the idea of a Trump presidency. Not this time.
Political push would unlock EU defence M&A spree 10 Jan 2024 Despite decades of gradual consolidation, Europe’s military industry is fragmented. The sound balance sheets of players like Thales or Leonardo make them fit to team up. A key merger hurdle would be removed if war at the borders pushes governments to align their defence policies.
EU hitches anti-Orbán plot to Draghi trial balloon 9 Jan 2024 European Council chief Charles Michel’s decision to leave early means Hungary’s Viktor Orbán could take charge of leaders’ meetings and represent them in high-profile summits. Doing whatever it takes to fill the void, even tapping Italy’s former PM for a short time, makes sense.
Rich nations can learn from Ireland’s health shift 9 Jan 2024 Dublin wants to build a universal healthcare system. Phasing out a US-like insurance model is bold and could require 20 bln euros from the state. Countries thinking of similar overhauls to deal with waiting lists and ageing citizens will need money and political consensus.
Taiwan elections can weaken an unstable status quo 4 Jan 2024 The Democratic Progressives are vying for a third term but another re-election of the independence leaning party will frustrate China. While market indicators are buoyant, more of the same in the island's local politics can make Sino-US ties worse.
Green backlash will spread to European Parliament 3 Jan 2024 Pro-environment parties risk losing clout in June’s pan-EU vote. That will reinforce a strengthening bond between conservatives and far-right forces wary of the industrial and social cost of the clean transition. The EU’s ambitious Green Deal will get a paler hue.
China policy risk returns as stock market grinch 22 Dec 2023 Shares in Tencent and NetEase plunged after surprise new curbs from Beijing on video-game spending and rewards. It smacks of President Xi Jinping’s crackdowns on private tutoring, tech and other sectors – and gives overseas investors another reason to be wary jumping back in.
China’s automakers will defy the great uncoupling 22 Dec 2023 There are industries, like microchips, where American trade warriors can cleave friendly supply chains from China. Cars aren’t one of them. Despite $80 bln of announced investments, lagging tech holds US champions back. In 2024, that will prove the limits of protectionism.
EU debt rules offer unity at price of relevance 21 Dec 2023 European Union finance chiefs reached a deal on a new fiscal pact, breaking a post-pandemic stalemate. Germany won austere deficit and debt targets, yet pain will be diluted by French-fought delays and concessions. The net result is an overly complex system that may not work.
Big companies will raid government for future CEOs 20 Dec 2023 There’s a long history of businesspeople going into politics. Now sanctions and subsidies are showing boardrooms the value of diplomatic skills. Lazard CEO Peter Orszag and Legal & General Chairman John Kingman worked in government. Others will follow through the revolving door.
Suez crisis may finally jolt Egypt out of stasis 20 Dec 2023 Cairo was wobbling even before militant attacks threatened its $9 bln of annual revenue from the Suez Canal. With inflation at 36%, re-elected President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s foreign aid needs are spiking. He will need to stop dawdling on reforms required by donors like the IMF.