Predictions 2017

Cox: Buy Amazon, short the euro zone, readers say

24 Jan 2017

Those are two ideas to emerge from people who attended Breakingviews predictions events in London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore. Our audiences also anticipated a U.S. recession in 2019 and expected the family car to outlast supermarkets, television, the euro and NAFTA.

Brazil, Mexico to ramp up pro-market oil makeovers

4 Jan 2017

State-controlled energy behemoths Petrobras and Pemex, which owe more than $220 bln between them and face falling crude output, need help doing their jobs. Mexico's auctions of exploration rights show a business-friendly way forward. Brazil will try to catch up in 2017.

Climate change will unclog water’s pipes

4 Jan 2017

The $1 trln H2O sector is growing slower than hoped despite rising threats to cities and companies from drought, flooding and population growth. But efforts to cut greenhouse gases could boost demand in 2017. General Electric is quitting the business at the wrong time.

Breakingviews predicts a shaken-up world in 2017

3 Jan 2017

After the upheavals of 2016, governments, companies and investors face unfamiliar terrain. Once-unthinkable scenarios, good or bad, now seem possible. From the U.S. economy to European elections, from M&A to magic mushrooms, our financial insights offer a guide to the year ahead.

Gene therapy is ready to become hereditary

3 Jan 2017

The prospect of treating diseases like hemophilia and cancer by tinkering with DNA has a long history of both promise and frustration. Steady progress means 2017 should be the year the technology finally hits the U.S. market. The problem may be figuring out how to pay for cures.

Trump stimulus will only delay next U.S. recession

3 Jan 2017

The president-elect inherits an economy that's in fairly good shape. His planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending will give growth an added short-term boost. Though that may postpone an overdue downturn, Trump is still likely to face a crunch before the next election.

Thruppence: Ten buzzwords to expect in 2017

3 Jan 2017

The dawn of a new populist era will bring even more corporate jargon and political euphemisms to the global lexicon. Think "import substitution" after trade barriers go up, or "fiscal space" as doublespeak for blowing through budgets. Breakingviews columnists place some bets.

Millennial princes snatch at power in Gulf

3 Jan 2017

Ageing monarchs may hand greater powers to a younger, more progressive generation in 2017. Falling oil revenues and ballooning budget deficits are forcing sheikhdoms to make overdue economic and social reforms or risk financial meltdown. Millennial thinking could help.

Exec pay is crying out for a race to the bottom

3 Jan 2017

Battles against corporate excesses are worthy but come unstuck all too quickly. Bosses keep getting paid more than their predecessors. To save capitalism, some could tender their services more cheaply. The tradition of the $1 CEO serves as a template. Even better: work for free.

Breakingviews predicts a shaken-up world in 2017

3 Jan 2017

After the upheavals of 2016, governments, companies and investors face unfamiliar terrain. Once-unthinkable scenarios, good or bad, now seem possible. From the U.S. economy to European elections, from M&A to magic mushrooms, our financial insights offer a guide to the year ahead.

Dominican Republic economy faces tricky crosswinds

30 Dec 2016

The Caribbean nation of 10 mln has notched the strongest GDP growth in the Western Hemisphere for the third year running - over 6 pct for 2016. Low oil prices, pro-business reforms, U.S. growth and an influx of cash from Venezuela all helped. The perfect storm won't keep blowing.

Disney buying Netflix could be practical magic

30 Dec 2016

The $160 bln media firm is on the hunt for technology that will connect consumers directly with its movies and TV shows. It's also searching for a successor to boss Bob Iger. Buying the $50 bln Netflix, plus CEO Reed Hastings, would be a financial stretch but just might pay off.

Pharma’s middlemen will feel the squeeze in 2017

30 Dec 2016

The U.S. healthcare system's opacity and complexity have stoked drug prices, fueling the flow of dollars to insurers, wholesalers and pharmacy benefit managers. The growth of high-deductible insurance will bring much-needed transparency - and unaccustomed pressure on these firms.

Investment banks’ next trade will be EU education

30 Dec 2016

No European city has as many international school places as London. That’s a problem for firms thinking of asking staff to move their families out of the UK capital following the Brexit referendum. The solution will be for banks to get into the education business themselves.

Hadas: Russian Revolution won’t be the last

30 Dec 2016

Soviet communism initially looked like the future, but rapidly became a cruel failure. Its disappearance left big-government democratic capitalism as the sole surviving system. A century later, that hybrid model is now under global threat. It might not last another century.

India is gearing up to recapitalise its big banks

30 Dec 2016

The country's lenders already need $27 bln or more of capital. Now Premier Narendra Modi's scrapping of high-value banknotes could lead to a spike in bad loans at small businesses. That might rally support for a move and help Modi as he repositions himself as a champion of the poor.

Drones will take off for big business

30 Dec 2016

Today's market mainly targets hobbyists. That will change in 2017, as countries clear up legal uncertainty and big corporations turn to commercial drones for everything from crop-dusting to parcel delivery. Tech groups from Intel to Chinese unicorn DJI should benefit.

American inequality will widen under Trump in 2017

29 Dec 2016

A populist wave sent the real-estate developer to the White House. But his economic policies will help working-class folks the least. His tax cuts, repatriation of corporate cash and infrastructure push will line the pockets of the rich before trickling down to the less well-off.

GE’s succession path lit by dueling deals

29 Dec 2016

The $275 bln industrial giant has a long list of executives capable of taking over when Jeff Immelt retires. In addition to engines and turbines, GE manufactures CEOs. The progress of two major M&A transactions will give the board a clearer view in 2017 on who should get the job.

Psychedelic drugs enlighten $2.5 trillion problem

29 Dec 2016

That was the cost of mental illness in 2010, an expense set to double by 2030, says the World Economic Forum. Psilocybin, magic mushrooms' active ingredient, has alleviated suffering in clinical trials. Illicit stigma aside, high returns on investment could make it worth a trip.