Colombia wises up to perils of direct democracy 16 Nov 2016 President Santos and FARC rebels tweaked a peace deal that was narrowly nixed in a Brexit-style plebiscite. The new pact looks likely to go to Congress for approval rather than another referendum, a prudent move given voters' inscrutability. The economy needs an end to war.
Saudi can’t have cheap oil and a war in Yemen 12 Oct 2016 The kingdom's fight against Houthi militants in Yemen is a burden on finances strained by cheap crude. Persisting with its expensive military adventure may require Riyadh to let oil prices rise further. Otherwise real-world battles may spill over into the economic kind.
Colombia’s “no” to peace will backfire on economy 2 Oct 2016 Voters on Sunday narrowly rejected a deal with FARC rebels that aimed to end five decades of civil war. The result shreds the credibility of the president and pollsters. The desire to be tougher on the rebels proved stronger – just – than the appeal of a needed peace dividend.
Damning Iraq report shows there’s hope for Britain 6 Jul 2016 A state inquiry has slated British lawmakers for the 2003 Iraq war. This, and a post-referendum political vacuum, may spur investors to wonder why they fund the UK’s big current account deficit. The answer - for now - is institutional resilience and a capacity for self-criticism.
Putin is slipping into Crimean economic sinkhole 14 Jun 2016 Russia’s struggle to build a bridge link to Crimea is a microcosm of President Vladimir Putin’s problem: his annexation carries high costs but is yielding meagre benefits. Public discontent risks flaring before September’s parliamentary elections and may spur a new crackdown.