Superapps will starve the rest in Southeast Asia 2 Jan 2019 Cash is being lavished on giants, Grab and Go-Jek, which dabble in everything from ride-hailing to groceries. It’s a Chinese approach to snaring online consumers. As investors follow SoftBank and Tencent’s seal, the gap will widen between these “do it all” outfits and the rest.
Blockchain will finally make itself useful 31 Dec 2018 The distributed-ledger technology associated with bitcoin is due a breakthrough in 2019. Banks and companies are gradually applying versions of it to tasks like settlement. Demonstrating blockchain’s utility, though, will say little about the value of cryptocurrencies themselves.
A plucky local upstart will take on Macau’s moguls 31 Dec 2018 Regulators in the world’s largest gambling hub could allow new players onto the casino floor when licenses expire in 2020. With frayed U.S.-China relations dealing American giants Sands and Wynn a weak hand, homegrown names like Suncity and Golden Dragon will try their luck.
Tallying our 2018 predictions hits – and misses 31 Dec 2018 Looking back at last year’s forecasts, our crystal ball produced some hits: Presidents Trump and Xi unsettled global growth, bitcoin bombed, scandals rocked Japan, and #MeToo broke into the boardroom. But halting Saudi reforms and drooping Apple shares were among the bloopers.
China will outdo U.S. in scramble for Africa 28 Dec 2018 Beijing will cement its position as the leading power on the continent, countering a U.S. pushback. Besides flexing muscles from Djibouti, its first overseas base, China will squeeze U.S. firms out of commercial and mining deals as tensions take on a Cold-War tinge.
ByteDance will take over B in China’s BAT 28 Dec 2018 The fast-growing startup behind AI-powered news and video apps Toutiao and TikTok is valued at $75 bln, on par with Baidu. Marketing and tech synergies would benefit both if ad spending falls. A 2019 merger will help rebalance the power with acronym partners Alibaba and Tencent.
Expect a Macquarie 50th anniversary deal 28 Dec 2018 The Aussie financial conglomerate has routinely embarked on strategy-shifting acquisitions, including asset management and energy trading, since it began in 1969. Local banks are hurting now. Buying one will be new boss Shemara Wikramanayake’s half-century gift to shareholders.
The Exchange: How corporate competition died 27 Dec 2018 Jonathan Tepper’s book “The Myth of Capitalism” is full of scary facts: two companies control 90 pct of America beer, while five banks account for half the country’s banking assets. He joined Breakingviews to explain the inexorable rise of monopolies and what we can do about it.
Weed, China, guns and money lead most-read stories 27 Dec 2018 We promised 2018 would bring “Froth and Frustration,” and that’s just what readers got. Other topics that piqued your interest: Rising populism in Italy, Brazil and France; Broadcom’s doomed bid for Qualcomm and the sale of Refinitiv by Breakingviews’ parent. Plus, fake meat.
Small nations will lose most from U.S. WTO fight 27 Dec 2018 The global trade body’s appeals panel may become paralyzed because of U.S. obstinacy. America, China and the EU can wring commerce concessions without filing complaints. Minnows like Panama and Moldova lack other recourse and will suffer if trade turns into a free-for-all.
Asia’s tech titans face Nissan-style key-man risk 27 Dec 2018 Startup founders have flourished in the region, taking over where old-school tycoons left off. Yet after Carlos Ghosn and a storm at JD, shareholders see charismatic bosses as liabilities too. Such concerns may mean unwanted attention at SoftBank, Foxconn and others in 2019.
Tencent will become world e-sports champion 27 Dec 2018 The global $1 bln competitive video-game market will reach a new level in 2019. As audiences for “League of Legends” tournaments pull even with the NFL, ad revenue will post explosive growth. That will fund Tencent’s expansion of its overseas franchise.
Samsung faces ghost of technology future 27 Dec 2018 South Korea's $230 bln giant is hurting with a fall in memory chip prices and uncertainty about future growth. U.S. rival Intel missed the mobile boom. To avoid a similar fate, heir Jay Y. Lee needs to spend some of its cash hoard to catch up with nimbler rivals in AI and 5G.
A Trump versus Xi wrestling match might just help 26 Dec 2018 Maybe not a real one. But Tencent could tag-team with WWE to build Chinese versions of Triple H and The Undertaker, and vent a bit of trade tension. The $370 bln tech giant would make a burly partner; Tencent would score a PR coup, plus Trump access via co-founder Linda McMahon.
Japan is stealth threat to 2019 market stability 24 Dec 2018 Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s tiny tweaks to ultra-loose policy will agitate global asset prices more than the actions of his U.S. or euro zone peers. Higher domestic yields are set to lure Japanese money back from U.S. credit or European debt markets and the yen will be buoyant.
World will improve where it matters most in 2019 24 Dec 2018 By next December, more people will have electricity and clean water. Child deaths are likely to be rarer and education more common. In future years, the pace of gains could accelerate. The open question is whether progress will undermine prosperity by also bringing more conflict.
Jeff Bezos starts to resemble Sam Walton 21 Dec 2018 Amazon is selling shelf space, opening stores and launching catalogs. Old-school Walmart’s acquisitions of Jet.com and Flipkart are helping it challenge its rival’s online dominance. As the two retailers increasingly resemble each other, so too will their valuations.
Asia’s beauty giants will apply a Western gloss 21 Dec 2018 J&J, Unilever and others have splashed out on cutting-edge cosmetics in Japan and South Korea. They want innovation, plus clout in China. Yet locals like Shiseido and snail mask supremo Amorepacific have cash and room to grow outside the region. They can reverse the M&A trend.
Sony’s turnaround will be an activist casting call 21 Dec 2018 Boss Kenichiro Yoshida has boosted earnings at the $61 bln movies-to-video-games group. But he needs to shed a loss-making handset unit and spin off the chip business, among other things. The Japanese company's reluctance to act will see hedge funds make a cameo in Sony's remake.
Viewsroom: Dealing in high anxiety 20 Dec 2018 Equity valuations are in the stratosphere and geopolitical risk is running hot. Breakingviews columnists predict how that’ll affect markets in 2019, from trade-war fallout to Indian privatizations, a Deutsche Bank rally and mining M&A. They also assess last year’s prognostications.