Capital Calls: Danske’s money-laundering slap 14 Dec 2022 Concise views on global finance: The Danish bank’s $2 bln penalty for processing potentially illicit payments pales in comparison with BNP Paribas’ $9 bln hit in 2014, even though the suspicious money flows may have been larger.
Capital Calls: Nuclear fusion, U.S. inflation 13 Dec 2022 Concise views on global finance: The scientific breakthrough in potentially limitless power is exciting, but to make it commercially viable will be equally challenging; Consumer prices rose 0.1% in November, and there could be more good news to come once shelter data catches up.
Friendshoring makes sense if done in the right way 5 Dec 2022 The United States and its allies want to build up suppliers of goods such as solar panels in friendly countries so they’re not vulnerable to Chinese disruptions or blackmail. To avoid self-harm they should define friends broadly and not attack China economically, says Hugo Dixon.
The bubble in predicting the end of the world 1 Dec 2022 The globe faces multiple threats to peace and prosperity. Several new books address the challenges of enormous debt, geopolitical rivalries and climate change, predicting disastrous consequences. The best thing investors can do is keep a level head, writes Edward Chancellor.
EU gas cap is indirect signal to cut power demand 23 Nov 2022 The bloc’s proposed brake on natural gas prices at 275 euros per megawatt hour is a fig leaf. The ceiling is so high and with such stringent conditions that it may never be activated. Its main use may be to remind EU states their best option is to use energy more efficiently.
Energy crises speed up the green transition 22 Nov 2022 In 2022, war and power shortages have led to more fossil fuel use. But they also act as a catalyst for the rollout of renewable energy. In this edition of The Exchange podcast, ex-Snam boss Marco Alverà tells George Hay how Europe’s leaders can capitalise on this dynamic.
Europe’s pain will be ultimately worth it 31 Oct 2022 The European Union faces a tough period as the energy crisis bites and debt troubles return. But the bloc could have the world’s cheapest and cleanest energy by the mid-2030s and it will probably emerge stronger geopolitically, says Hugo Dixon.
Europe’s energy crisis nears winter of discontent 18 Oct 2022 Germany, Italy and others have scrambled to replace Russian gas and pipeline attacks have become a concern. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ Jack Sharples tells The Exchange podcast Europe must learn to live with less power. Next year may be even more challenging.
Financial hubs’ neutrality is all at sea 11 Oct 2022 Switzerland and Singapore are taking the West’s side in the Ukraine war. Now fear is rising that Hong Kong will become a Russian stomping ground after an oligarch’s yacht docked there. That’s overdone, but the impartiality of rich centres is increasingly likely to create waves.
German energy bailout belatedly outclasses Europe 30 Sep 2022 Berlin will borrow 200 bln euros to help consumers cope with rocketing energy prices. It’s not the first state to go for a shock and awe approach, but Germany’s ample fiscal space gives it way more scope to go big. Unlike the UK, it can also do so without spooking investors.
Guest view: Russia sanctions lack decisive punch 27 Sep 2022 Restrictions imposed by the United States and its allies following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have done economic damage, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. But Cuba and Iran show American sanctions are not decisive in changing geopolitical outcomes.
Ukraine has more pluses than minuses for climate 26 Sep 2022 The Russian invasion has prompted other countries to boost gas production and burn more coal. Climate diplomacy is on ice. But this crisis will also prompt a dash for cheaper and more secure renewable energy. That helps the fight to slow global warming, says Hugo Dixon.
Italy’s right-wing winners inherit poison chalice 26 Sep 2022 Nationalist Giorgia Meloni, EU-sceptic Matteo Salvini and convicted former PM Silvio Berlusconi scored an election victory. Despite campaign unity, they disagree on sanctions and spending. The rivalries risk undermining the high-debt nation’s ability to tackle its energy crisis.
Uniper’s new bailout mixes scars and consolations 21 Sep 2022 Germany’s 8 bln euro capital injection heavily dilutes the stricken energy group’s investors and hands main shareholder Fortum a big loss. The Finnish group does gain from exiting the mess, and Berlin might one day profit from the rescue. But neither side will be celebrating.
Oil price cap will harm, not help, Asia 15 Sep 2022 The U.S. says countries ignoring a G7-led price cap against Russia can leverage it to negotiate discounts. But even if the policy works and lowers short-term prices, India and China’s massive long-term oil needs make it risky to mess with price signals that spur fresh supply.
Europe can shrug off Putin’s Chinese gas Plan B 14 Sep 2022 With exports to its key European market shrinking fast, Moscow hopes to hike gas exports to the People’s Republic. But last year these were just 7% of EU sales, and logistics and sanctions complicate the shift. It need not deter Europe’s talk of a Russian gas price cap.
Europe energy fallout will cascade down the years 12 Sep 2022 The gas crisis is a long-term problem which will make the region poorer and less competitive while saddling it with higher public debt. Dealing with this as well as high inflation will cause further political ructions which will cascade down the years, says Hugo Dixon.
Putin’s gas ploy worsens Russia’s economic plight 9 Sep 2022 The EU paid 89 bln euros for Russian oil and gas in the last six months. That helps President Vladimir Putin afford the closure of a key pipeline. But the move will speed Europe’s search for other energy sources. If the EU holds firm on sanctions, Russia’s recession will deepen.
The consequences of Europe’s energy crisis 8 Sep 2022 As Russian President Vladimir Putin cuts off gas through a key pipeline, Breakingviews columnists discuss the response from UK and European governments, how the shutdown could have some longer-term benefits, and when Russia will feel the squeeze of lost revenue.
EU has ways to learn to live with less gas 6 Sep 2022 The closure of a key Russian pipeline leaves Europe facing a 20% shortfall in fuel supply. Measures to cut demand like lower temperatures in homes and incentives for companies to use less energy may soften the blow. More gas-dependent nations like Italy must now work harder.