Sinking Russian military crafts new arms winners 12 Apr 2023 Moscow’s share of global arms exports shrank by 27% over the last five years, to the benefit of the US and France. Deprived of Western technology, Russia’s defence industry has struggled to adapt. Its traditional customers also aren’t impressed by its poor performance in Ukraine.
China sanctions red line has shifted westward 21 Mar 2023 President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has rekindled concerns Beijing could get too cosy with Vladimir Putin. Arming Russia would likely trigger a joint Western diplomatic response even in the absence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing is walking a thinning tightrope.
Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit 20 Mar 2023 Moscow needs up to $90 bln to fund its budget deficit this year. As sanctions keep biting, financing the shortfall will slowly add to the economy’s woes. Russia’s need to use the yuan for trade and payments will also increase Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Beijing.
Ukraine’s long shadow on business and geopolitics 23 Feb 2023 It’s been 12 months since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how energy markets have changed for good, how defence companies are benefiting, and another potential conflict troubling CEOs and investors.
War puts defence firms on investors’ radar 21 Feb 2023 The Ukraine conflict is prompting once-wary capital to engage with defence and aerospace companies. In this Exchange podcast Lorenz Meier, CEO of drone software firm Auterion, accepts ethical issues remain. But defence tech startups should brace for new venture capital cash.
Ukraine yet to make defence a safe investor haven 20 Feb 2023 Kyiv’s pressing call for weapons to defeat Russia dominated a top security forum in Munich. With defence budgets rising, some investors and banks are tempted to engage more with military hardware firms. For most, however, lethal weapons will remain a no-go investment zone.
Even a weak Russia is a problem for Europe 20 Feb 2023 A year after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Europe seems destined for an arms race and further economic decoupling from its neighbour. But extra defence spending, lost business and rebuilding costs will be minor compared to a scenario where Moscow crushes Kyiv, says Hugo Dixon.
Syngenta jumbo IPO will sow seeds of doubt 14 Feb 2023 A Shanghai listing this year may value the pesticides and seeds maker at a chunky $66 bln. The group’s role in feeding a growing global population will please investors. But its reliance on toxic weedkillers that are losing favour in Europe poses a long-term threat.
Economic war with China would be MAD 14 Feb 2023 The prospect of mutually assured destruction averted nuclear conflict during the Cold War. Hopefully, fear of the economic equivalent will stop a showdown with China. But after the shooting down of a Chinese balloon, tensions are rising and errors are possible, says Hugo Dixon.
Capital Calls: Adidas kitchen sink 10 Feb 2023 Concise views on global finance: Shares in the sportswear maker fell 11% amid forecasts of a high-single-digit decline in sales in 2023.
Capital Calls: AI lessons, Robots, Streaming wars 8 Feb 2023 Concise views on global finance: Textbook rental company Chegg becomes an early victim of ChatGPT fears; a short supply of U.S. workers makes automation look even more appealing; Warner Bros Discovery flips the script on its deal logic and will keep HBO Max as a separate service.
Trying to bankrupt Russia could backfire 30 Jan 2023 Now that Western allies are supplying tanks to Ukraine, why not also ramp up sanctions on Russian oil and gas? Because doing so would carry big economic risks – and that could undermine Western willingness to continue its vital military support for Kyiv, says Hugo Dixon.
Davos, Inc. finds reasons to be less gloomy 20 Jan 2023 Business leaders gathering in the Swiss mountain resort have plenty to fret about. Still, with China reopening, Europe keeping the lights on and interest rate pressure easing, the overriding emotion is one of relief. Less clear is whether the mood extends beyond the alpine elite.
Global energy prices face a turbulent 2023 12 Jan 2023 The cost of natural gas has halved from a peak last year thanks to warmer weather and bulky European stores. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why it’s too early for companies and households to rule out further supply shocks and price volatility.
EU’s frozen Russian assets plan is best put on ice 12 Jan 2023 The European Commission wants to use nearly $200 bln of Russian assets to help finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. Germany seems to like the idea. But it is legally shaky, financially marginal, and politically fraught. For now Europe and its allies must shoulder the task.
Guest view: Debt fixes can help rebuild Ukraine 11 Jan 2023 Even as Russia’s invasion ravages the country, policymakers need to start planning for reconstruction, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. States and private creditors will chip in. U.S.-backed Brady bonds, which helped ease past crises, can provide further relief.
How geopolitical shocks will spread in 2023 10 Jan 2023 Traders and chief executives were caught out by shock events in 2022. In this Exchange podcast, Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, discusses the new risks emerging from China, Iran and Russia this year.
Cheaper gas is temporary salve for Europe Inc 9 Jan 2023 Warm winter days and enough reserves to offset Russian imports have halved the fuel’s cost. Yet Europe’s energy security also hinges on abundant liquefied natural gas purchases. As China’s fuel-guzzling economy reopens post-Covid, industrial giants like BASF may still suffer.
New threats will corrode infrastructure M&A 30 Dec 2022 Blasts that damaged Baltic pipelines in September alerted investors to the physical risks to energy networks from geopolitics. Add growing cyber concerns and the cost of insurance is set to rise. As the appeal of formerly quasi risk-free bets dims, states will surely step in.
Capital Calls: Danske’s money-laundering slap 14 Dec 2022 Concise views on global finance: The Danish bank’s $2 bln penalty for processing potentially illicit payments pales in comparison with BNP Paribas’ $9 bln hit in 2014, even though the suspicious money flows may have been larger.