Global stability partly hangs on Saudi reinvention 25 May 2022 The kingdom’s efforts to shape its image go so far as branding a café at Davos bearing the crown prince’s name. Worldwide demand for oil and gas amid the Ukraine war gives Saudi extra power and a chance to realign itself politically. There’s much more work to do.
U.S. sanctions give Russia default it doesn’t need 25 May 2022 The Treasury won’t let Moscow pay U.S. bondholders, tipping it into default. The move further isolates Vladimir Putin but will have minimal impact. It’s a surreal twist given Russia can still pay its debts, while battlefield foe Ukraine urgently needs relief but isn’t getting it.
Biden tries a new tool for handling China: realism 24 May 2022 At first glance a pact with India, Japan and Vietnam looks short on substance and skips sensitive issues. The U.S. also looks likely to drop many tariffs against China. But where his predecessors’ bids to woo or contain Beijing failed, Biden’s are at least likely to prove durable.
Smaller, warmer Davos confronts a siloed world 23 May 2022 The Swiss confab of global leaders returns this week after a gap of over two years. Pandemic, war, and the unusual spring timing explain some notable absences. As markets tumble and economies turn inward, founder Klaus Schwab’s knack for brokering relationships faces a test.
Ukraine’s spare energy can help itself and Europe 20 May 2022 The war-torn nation generates more electricity than it needs, and from carbon-neutral nuclear plants, too. But its links to the EU power grid are sketchy. Helping Ukraine bolster exports to the EU would support Kyiv’s economy while easing the bloc’s energy headache.
German fiscal obsession is ill-timed and untenable 19 May 2022 Finance Minister Christian Lindner is keen to reinstate a debt limit that was waived during the pandemic. The Ukraine war means the economy is facing new problems. And massive investments are needed in the green transition. This is no time for fiscal fetishes.
Egypt’s hunger pangs are like 2011, but worse 19 May 2022 A decade ago the soaring cost of bread helped unseat Cairo’s long-term ruler, Hosni Mubarak. In 2022 food prices are rising faster, and Egypt’s population and debt are bigger. The more prices rise, the trickier the tradeoff between enraging financial and domestic constituencies.
EU funds can ease, not end common energy pain 18 May 2022 Brussels has earmarked 300 bln euros to cut fossil fuel ties with Russia. Rising rates make cheap, repurposed Covid-rescue loans more attractive to many EU states, increasing the chance they’ll be used. But higher fuel purchases will still have to come from national budgets.
Using Russian assets in Ukraine would be a mistake 17 May 2022 Seizing $200 bln of central bank reserves frozen by the EU and U.S. could provide financial relief and moral comfort to the war-torn country. But it would also trigger legal fights and give Russia even less reason to back down. Confiscation is no substitute for a realistic plan.
Polish mortgage holiday is bad idea with allure 17 May 2022 Warsaw wants to protect citizens from surging inflation and interest rates by offering breaks on home loan repayments. That would cost the country’s banks up to $3.6 bln. Forcing lenders to bear the effects of Russia’s war is crude and distortive, but may also win votes.
Western companies have 50 bad ways to leave Russia 16 May 2022 Multinationals can sell out like McDonald’s, shut down like Zara owner Inditex or shrink operations like Nestlé. Hopes of finding a Chinese or Indian buyer may prompt some to drag their heels. But the threat of forced nationalisation gives others an incentive to hurry.
India heatwave throws food security for loop 12 May 2022 Crops are wilting after weeks of climate change-induced scorching temperatures. On top of domestic pain, it casts doubt on India’s new role exporting grain to replace supplies lost to Russia’s war in Ukraine. That’ll create more dilemmas for political leaders near and far.
Renault’s Russia exit plans mix logic and delusion 10 May 2022 The French carmaker could sell its Russian assets for a symbolic euro with a plan to buy them back at a later date. Its hope for a “return to normal” after the war in Ukraine sounds optimistic, if not delusional. But for now, Renault sheds a burden and avoids the Kremlin’s ire.
Capital Calls: AB InBev 5 May 2022 Concise views on global finance: Anheuser-Busch InBev’s revenue grew 11% in the first quarter compared to last year, but rising prices are a particular headache for the debt-laden brewer.
EU’s oil embargo is slave to volatile crude price 4 May 2022 The bloc wants to stop buying Russian exports within six months. That looks too slow to properly choke off funding for President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Yet going any faster could make crude prices spike, exacerbating Europe’s battle against inflation.
Bitcoin’s African outpost raises several red flags 2 May 2022 War-torn Central African Republic is following El Salvador in adopting the crypto unit as legal tender. The surprise of the region’s central bank and Bangui’s use of sanctioned Russian mercenaries are warning signs. Bitcoin’s quest for mainstream acceptance just got harder.
Africa is imperfect solution to Europe’s gas woes 28 Apr 2022 The continent’s vast reserves and growing liquefied gas supplies can cut some of the bloc’s energy dependence on Russia. Yet lack of infrastructure, domestic needs and rigid contracts limit Africa’s ability to boost exports quickly. Political instability is a further headache.
Putin’s gas shock is acid test of EU unity 27 Apr 2022 In severing Polish and Bulgarian supply, the Russian leader shattered a fragile equilibrium that had seen European energy buyers fund his war. He hopes other EU states will carry on, dividing the bloc. Instead, Europe should backstop the costly process of ditching Moscow’s fuel.
Russia risk is ghost of banks’ sanctions future 22 Apr 2022 In the hunt for oligarchs and blacklisted firms, U.S. authorities are treating lenders as allies rather than adversaries. Prospective prosecutors may take a different view. Banks with past legal troubles might prefer to shun Russian business. Still, there are lots of grey areas.
Rwanda’s economic refit gets net-positive free ads 22 Apr 2022 Britain and Denmark want to outsource asylum processing to the East African nation infamous for its 1994 genocide. Regardless of their motives, it chimes with leader Paul Kagame’s plan to build an offshore services hub. Handling refugees looks mercenary but supports his goal.