IMF’s Egypt bailout chooses hope over experience 11 Mar 2024 Cairo has received an $8 bln IMF loan after a $35 bln cash injection from the United Arab Emirates. If President Sisi does not justify the Fund’s optimism about reforms, a painful restructuring of the $165 bln external debt lies ahead.
UAE makes $35 bln bet on Egyptian virtuous circle 26 Feb 2024 The Gulf state is amping up support for Cairo by investing in a huge coastal tourist scheme. Prompt cash may make the recipient’s IMF loan deal more likely, and the UAE gets most of the project’s upside. But the plan reflects the scale of regional concern about an imploded Egypt.
Europe risks falling into Levant’s powder keg 20 Feb 2024 War in Gaza is worsening already dire economic conditions in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Western aid is unlikely to solve their deep problems. Despite efforts to outsource its migration issues, the European Union may find some displaced by a protracted conflict reach its borders.
Suez crisis may finally jolt Egypt out of stasis 20 Dec 2023 Cairo was wobbling even before militant attacks threatened its $9 bln of annual revenue from the Suez Canal. With inflation at 36%, re-elected President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s foreign aid needs are spiking. He will need to stop dawdling on reforms required by donors like the IMF.
Egypt’s food tightrope has petrodollar safety net 24 Jul 2023 The collapse of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal is a big problem for the world’s top importer of wheat. Egypt’s battered economy will struggle as food prices spike. A $400 mln lifeline from the UAE, flush with oil cash, is one of leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s few crumbs of comfort.
COP27 deal is a blessing in a very good disguise 21 Nov 2022 The premier forum for fighting climate change ended in Egypt with a largely inadequate agreement to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. But it did feature a small show of goodwill by rich countries. That might incentivise the big emitters of tomorrow to up their game.
Don’t dump on U.S. coal plan. Make it better! 11 Nov 2022 Sceptics fear an American plan to use voluntary carbon markets to accelerate the energy transition in poor countries, unveiled at COP27, could amount to greenwashing. But done properly, it could help developing markets close down coal plants, a major source of pollution.
How Joe Biden can help save the planet at COP27 7 Nov 2022 “Just transition partnerships” with states like India are essential to fight climate change and advance Western interests. America needs to join up its trade, geopolitical and climate policies, says Hugo Dixon, as the U.S. president heads to the U.N. climate conference in Egypt.
Egypt’s hunger pangs are like 2011, but worse 19 May 2022 A decade ago the soaring cost of bread helped unseat Cairo’s long-term ruler, Hosni Mubarak. In 2022 food prices are rising faster, and Egypt’s population and debt are bigger. The more prices rise, the trickier the tradeoff between enraging financial and domestic constituencies.
Africa is imperfect solution to Europe’s gas woes 28 Apr 2022 The continent’s vast reserves and growing liquefied gas supplies can cut some of the bloc’s energy dependence on Russia. Yet lack of infrastructure, domestic needs and rigid contracts limit Africa’s ability to boost exports quickly. Political instability is a further headache.
Sudan coup throws rock into choppy Nile waters 28 Oct 2021 The army has seized power in Khartoum, pushing it back into diplomatic isolation. Sudan and Egypt had existing gripes with Ethiopia over the damming of the mighty river. Removing Khartoum’s veneer of civilian rule risks future spats over Nile water use spiralling into conflict.
Suez blockage comes a year too late 25 Mar 2021 The Ever Given continues to block the Egyptian canal. Barring progress, shipping firms may soon have to re-route vessels around Africa, adding seven days and extra fuel costs. A year ago, with crude prices tumbling, many did that anyway. With oil dearer, it’s a painful choice.
Saudi gets a partial brand detox with Qatar thaw 6 Jan 2021 Ending Riyadh’s three-year embargo with Doha gives both states a minor economic boost. It also removes one of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s Saudi-related headaches. But its main benefit could be to reduce the extent to which foreign investors see the kingdom as kryptonite.
Mubarak’s downfall taught Egypt’s Sisi key lessons 25 Feb 2020 During his three decades in charge, the former strongman, who has died aged 91, valued political stability above all else. Bolder currency reform might have defused some Arab Spring anger. Current leader Sisi took note, but has also so far been better at keeping the army on side.
London IPO abattoir’s next victim could be African 9 Oct 2019 Trade bank Afrexim wants to raise $200 mln in the UK, despite recent troubled attempts by Kazakh and UAE groups. A new continental free trade deal bolsters its case. But demand for an entity controlled by regional governments could elicit a similarly lukewarm response.
Africa growth outlook puts democrats on back foot 3 Jul 2019 Ballooning populations mean per capita wealth is falling in key democracies Nigeria and South Africa. That’s a recipe for trouble. Alongside a stronger performance by autocratic Egypt, it also makes worrying reading for those who believe a democratic Africa is a more stable one.
East Africa will buck global great rift trend 20 Dec 2018 Twenty-five years after genocide, Rwanda’s economy is motoring sufficiently to need new markets. The potential inclusion of Ethiopia would make East Africa a single market of 250 million people. If it prospers, it would provide a useful counterpoint to global balkanisation.
Khashoggi affair presents economic risk for Egypt 30 Oct 2018 Repercussions of the Saudi journalist’s murder could dent Egypt’s return to growth and stability. Cairo depends on the remittances of workers in the kingdom and the flow of Gulf tourists to build foreign exchange reserves, without which the central bank can’t easily lower rates.
Cox: Saudenfreude over Khashoggi absent from Doha 25 Oct 2018 As Mohammed bin Salman’s blockade of Qatar nears the year and a half mark, it would be easy for the tiny-but-rich Gulf state to gloat over the kingdom’s woes. But chaos across the border is a big worry. A quiet high road is paying off for Qatar. Even MbS seems to agree.
Cowed LafargeHolcim sets sights appropriately low 2 Mar 2018 The new boss of the world’s largest cement maker has scrapped a share buyback and set the group’s EBITDA growth target at 5 pct. Jan Jenisch can probably do better. Still, given LafargeHolcim’s various headaches since its merger the conservatism is understandable.