Gulf aid dulls Western leverage over Egypt 19 Aug 2013 Financial support from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is shielding Egypt from an immediate balance of payments crisis and has allowed the military regime to focus on repression first. It also seriously limits the influence the EU and U.S. can have over the government’s action.
Markets are poor judge of Egyptian violence 15 Aug 2013 A bloody crackdown on protesters has intensified the political crisis in the Middle East’s most populous country. Oil prices and Egyptian CDS are up. The ramifications may be far wider than the initial reaction suggests. For now, the market response can be only backward-looking.
Gulf aid helps Egypt avoid financial collapse 10 Jul 2013 The regime change has bought Cairo new financial backers. A Saudi-UAE pledge of $8 bln gives the country’s interim rulers a chance to implement their controversial transitional roadmap. The hope is that they make better use of bilateral support than their predecessors.
Ethiopia’s Nile plan emblem of global water woes 9 Jul 2013 A dam to export hydroelectric power looks at odds with IMF hopes for more competition. Egypt’s bellicose threats are wrongheaded, too. Obscured by the rhetoric are longer-term concerns about how nations can sensibly grow their economies when water’s a scarce or shared resource.
Egyptian bourse euphoria is premature at best 5 Jul 2013 The prospect of calmer streets has sent shares up more than 12 pct in the last week. The rally can only last if the new regime acts swiftly to address the country’s twin deficits. Aid from the Gulf could help, but only serious reforms will really win back foreign investors.
Military throws Egypt into dangerous phase 4 Jul 2013 The ousting of President Mursi after one year in power cements divisions and confirms the army as kingmaker. A swift return to civilian rule is critical. But the path is fraught with economic and social risk. The outcome may be less democratic – in Egypt and elsewhere.
Mursi faces choice between compromise and chaos 1 Jul 2013 One year into his term, Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi is facing turmoil in the streets. The Muslim Brotherhood’s failures are many - chief of which is its inability to work with other political forces. It may not be too late. The alternative is real chaos.
Qatar support for Egypt’s rulers could backfire 17 Apr 2013 The emirate says its financial aid to Egypt is neutral but its billions allow the Muslim Brotherhood government to delay unpopular reforms while the economy deteriorates. At best, Qatar is shoring up its political interests. At worst, it must prepare for an unpleasant backlash.
Stalled Qatar deal leaves EFG Hermes in limbo 10 Apr 2013 The Mideast’s top investment bank agreed to spin off some of its assets into a joint venture with Qatar’s QInvest. Yet with both sides privately betting the deal has been sunk by politics, EFG Hermes must now focus on closing the hefty discount to the sum of its parts on its own.
Altimo’s $3.7 bln bid undervalues Orascom Telecom 2 Apr 2013 The Russian firm is making an opportunistic bid for the Cairo-listed telco, in which it already has a large indirect stake through subsidiary Vimpelcom. If a dispute between Orascom and the Algerian government is resolved soon, the 10 pct premium will look measly.
Egypt needs urgent help to stop it sinking 12 Mar 2013 The Muslim Brotherhood has failed to protect the fragile economy, let alone boost it. The country is gripped by shortages, aid options are narrowing and no date is set for parliamentary elections. The longer Cairo delays an IMF deal, the greater the social and financial risks.
Brotherhood faceoff with Sawiris is bad for Egypt 11 Mar 2013 The country’s Islamist rulers have escalated a tax probe on billionaire Nassef Sawiris as he seeks to shift his construction group’s primary listing to Amsterdam. A fight between Egypt and its top entrepreneurial family is the last thing the country needs now.
QInvest-EFG Hermes deal tests new Egypt 4 Mar 2013 Ten months have passed and the Qatari firm is still waiting for regulatory approval for its deal to carve up the region’s top investment bank. Criminal allegations against EFG’s co-CEOs make this a political hot potato for Egypt. But both firms may be weaker if nothing is done.
Ethical economy: The knots of development 6 Feb 2013 What’s wrong with British housing? So many things, from planning to self-destructive financial expectations. The strands are entwined into a knot of interlocking self-interests. What keeps some countries poor? Too many of these knots, made tighter by corruption and ignorance.
Egypt chaos points to longer, riskier transition 28 Jan 2013 The deadly clashes in cities along the Suez Canal indicate that the country’s transition will be longer and more painful than expected. The seriousness of political and social divisions has been underestimated. The ruling Brotherhood must build consensus to find stability.
Arab Spring makes region $225 bln poorer 15 Jan 2013 Ousting dictators doesn’t come cheap. In 2010, the IMF forecast total 2011-2015 GDP in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia at $2.2 trn. That figure is now 10 pct lower. The hope is that less wealth will be more evenly spread. The fear is that new governments will be less growth-friendly.
Timing key for Qatar’s $2.5 bln lifeline to Egypt 9 Jan 2013 The aid package underscores the Gulf state’s support for the ruling Muslim Brotherhood. But it’s unclear when the funds were received. If the money came during the previous month, and has been spent, Egypt is in deep trouble. If it just arrived, sighs of relief are in order.
Egypt’s Brotherhood meets financial reality 7 Jan 2013 The fall of the pound creates inflationary pressure and capital controls underscore the shrinking of foreign reserves. Egypt’s ruling Brotherhood must finalise an unpopular deal with the IMF or risk a currency meltdown. Neither option is appealing ahead of elections.
Mursi’s pharaonic blunder throws Egypt into chaos 26 Nov 2012 The vigorous protests against the Egyptian president’s power grab show he has underestimated civil society’s craving for democratic institutions. He still has time to stand down, but his move increases the political division and instability in the still-fragile country.
Egypt’s "dream revolution" still looks distant 21 Nov 2012 Disappointment has replaced hope two years after the Tahrir Square rebellion that ousted Hosni Mubarak. The IMF deal is a boost but the economy lacks direction and support for the Muslim Brotherhood is waning. Investors hoping to profit from Egypt’s potential face a long wait.