Sweden

Economics Nobel lauds auction half-truths

12 Oct 2020

Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson won the prize for advancing bidding theory. Their fans see rigour and the backbone of Google’s pricing. But sceptics wonder if their formal models are any more effective than rules of thumb in radio spectrum sales or bring long-term social gains.

Nordic industrial M&A gets all passive-aggressive

29 Sep 2020

Finnish paper group Valmet has proposed a share-based merger with valve maker Neles but not yet informed its target of any terms. That’s a bit cheeky given the latter already has a decent $2 bln cash bid from Swedish engineer Alfa Laval. Valmet needs to show its hand or go away.

Klarna’s new $11 bln valuation looks a stretch

15 Sep 2020

The Swedish buy-now-pay-later startup’s new funding round means it has doubled its worth in a year. That looks reasonable relative to rival Afterpay’s market valuation. It looks less so once you use multiples that better reflect competition and regulatory risks.

Sweden’s $2 bln oat milk startup has watery moat

16 Jul 2020

Oatly, which makes the dairy substitute loved by hipsters and baristas, raised capital from Blackstone and celebrities including Oprah Winfrey. Sales reached $200 mln in 2019 and are expected to double again this year. But its lead could sour as bigger groups like Danone wade in.

Europe’s private-equity share premium is temporary

16 Jul 2020

Sweden’s EQT and Swiss Partners Group fetch price-earnings multiples way above KKR, Blackstone, Carlyle and Apollo. That’s justified by faster growth and a higher proportion of management fees, which are more predictable than carry. As the newer funds mature, that will erode.

Alfa Laval’s $2 bln Finnish deal assumes a lot

13 Jul 2020

The Swedish industrial group’s cash offer for valve maker Neles raises its exposure to carbon-heavy markets. In the absence of as-yet-unquantified synergies, the return on investment looks paltry at less than 4%. Alfa investors who hailed the purchase are taking a lot on trust.

Sweden chips away at fintech star’s foundations

13 Jul 2020

A new law by the Nordic state requires Klarna to reduce the prominence of so-called “buy now, pay later” options on e-commerce platforms. It could check a key growth area for the domestic financial group. That might be a problem if other governments decide to clip its wings too.

Scandi airline rescue is formation-flying lesson

30 Jun 2020

Sweden and Denmark are taking an equal share of the knotty $1.5 bln rescue of regional carrier SAS. If equity and debt holders agree, it’s an exception to the rule that national priorities impede cross-border bailouts. Air France-KLM’s fractious state owners should take note.

The Exchange: Pehr Gyllenhammar

23 Jun 2020

Long-time Volvo CEO Pehr Gyllenhammar was pushing radical environmental and social changes at the carmaker long before they became fashionable. One of Sweden’s most admired businessmen argues why CEOs should be paid less and how it felt to become a father again at 81.

Gilead solidifies pharma pandemic insurance premia

9 Jun 2020

The $100 bln company has an approved Covid-19 drug that the U.S. government is distributing. That helps replace maturing HIV and dwindling hep C meds, and made Gilead a takeover target. The ability to cure what ails the entire economy buffs the sector’s strong defensive nature.

Swedish virus outcomes will be hard to copy

12 May 2020

The only Western state not to enforce a lockdown has a higher death rate than Nordic peers but lower than Britain or Italy. Its economy will emerge less scarred. But that’s also because of generous welfare and the fiscal room it’s using to compensate companies for lost sales.

Corona Capital: Extended Stay, Victoria’s Secret

22 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Blackstone checks back into one of its favorite old haunts, hotel chain Extended Stay; while another private-equity shop, Sycamore, tries to dump its proposed investment in lingerie seller Victoria’s Secret.

Corona Capital: Pemex, Bond liquidity

20 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Pemex becomes world’s chunkiest fallen angel, and bond liquidity gets a needed boost.

EU banks get scary bad-debt warning from Sweden

8 Apr 2020

Swedbank’s first-quarter impairments jumped tenfold from a year earlier because of Covid-19. That’s despite a relaxed Swedish attitude to lockdowns and lenders’ accounting wiggle room. A similar spike across Europe would wipe out most profits for 2020, and bigger hits may come.

Geely picks odd timing for Volvo IPO reboot

10 Feb 2020

After abandoning a $30 bln flotation of the Swedish carmaker in 2018, its Chinese owner wants to combine it with its Hong Kong unit, and list in Sweden. A merger might create savings. Yet any benefit will be overshadowed by a tough domestic market and the coronavirus fallout.

Uncle Sam’s 5G telecom fantasy is M&A nightmare

7 Feb 2020

Attorney General William Barr thinks the U.S. could buy Nokia or Ericsson to counter China’s Huawei. But making private firms do the state’s bidding is not how America works. Wrapping suppliers in the flag would also destroy value. Selling shareholders would be the only winners.

Ericsson gives glimpse of pain from 5G squeeze

24 Jan 2020

An earnings hit from a U.S. mega-merger is only one headache for the $28 bln Swedish telecoms firm. Britain appears to be throwing a lifeline to Chinese rival Huawei. And mobile operators are pushing hard to break the pair’s grip over the $500 bln market for next-generation kit.

Soaring Swedish buyout shop looks overpriced

23 Jan 2020

The share price of $13 bln EQT has almost doubled since its September IPO. CEO Christian Sinding can point to good private-equity returns and a rapid rise in assets under management. That success may be harder to sustain given increasing competition for deals and capital.

Buy now, pay later faces Juul-style backlash

24 Dec 2019

Companies offering the credit innovation say it can drive online sales and help retailers deal with refunds. One player, Klarna, is valued at $5.5 bln. But making it a lot easier to shop for free could prompt a reaction like that which befell the vaping heavyweight.

Sweden will manage a singular rate rise

6 Dec 2019

The Nordic country’s rate setters want to lift the policy rate out of sub-zero territory in December. Sluggish growth, lower inflation and trade weakness mean they face a high burden of proof to justify such a move. Their explanation may not stretch to a second hike anytime soon.