Trade-war détente leaves booby traps for investors 2 Dec 2018 New tariffs are on hold while China vowed to buy more U.S. goods and may reconsider the Qualcomm-NXP deal. Despite the upbeat tone, President Trump and his hawkish advisers may push too hard. A small 90-day window to hash out an agreement also means things could easily blow up.
Bush paid history’s economic dividends forward 1 Dec 2018 During the 41st U.S. president's one term, Soviet communism fell and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was foiled. The "kinder, gentler" Bush was the last of a Washington breed that sought compromise. He put country over party. His successors reaped, and then squandered, the benefits.
Island gambit hints at Beijing’s new lower gear 23 Nov 2018 U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has intimated China intends to drown Pacific nations in a sea of debt. The actual approach, however, has been reluctantly pragmatic, as in a move to delay repayments from Tonga. The result may be a more sustainable version of the Belt and Road plan.
G20 showdown hangs on big numbers, big egos 21 Nov 2018 Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s upcoming meeting is weighing on markets. Despite discord among his aides, the U.S. president has the autonomy to strike a deal if China offers the right incentives. His interest in trade balances and historical strongmen creates an opportunity.
Mexico’s revolutionaries risk spoiling the party 12 Nov 2018 President-elect López Obrador doesn’t take office until next month, but he and his fellow leftists have already upset markets with moves to nix an airport project and rein in bank fees. Such fumbles could help guide Brazil’s far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro as he nears power too.
Trade war ushers in the compartmentalized economy 8 Nov 2018 Beijing and Washington’s conscious uncoupling could unravel decades-old commercial ties. That doesn’t mean the rest of the world has to choose sides. Companies like electronics maker Philips are mulling how to take advantage of both markets. Business can continue, at a cost.
The Exchange: Pascal Lamy 6 Nov 2018 Few people have dedicated their careers to expanding international trade and globalism like Lamy, the former head of the WTO and EU commissioner. But rising rhetoric and increased tariffs between the U.S. and China have him worried, as he tells Rob Cox and Liam Proud in Paris.
U.S.-China mistrust heightens armed-conflict risk 5 Nov 2018 A near-collision between American and Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea is a dangerous sign. Both militaries are stepping up readiness. With trade tensions high and the usual back channels dysfunctional, a clash – or worse – is a concern investors should not dismiss.
Tough U.S. Iran sanctions talk meets oil economics 2 Nov 2018 Eight countries can temporarily keep importing Iranian oil without defying sanctions. Top U.S. diplomat Mike Pompeo says the aim is still to go to zero. With a domestic election and Saudi in a mess, it’s a way to keep acting tough while limiting the risk of oil price spikes.
Cox: Saudenfreude over Khashoggi absent from Doha 25 Oct 2018 As Mohammed bin Salman’s blockade of Qatar nears the year and a half mark, it would be easy for the tiny-but-rich Gulf state to gloat over the kingdom’s woes. But chaos across the border is a big worry. A quiet high road is paying off for Qatar. Even MbS seems to agree.
Saudi oil could help grease Turkish discretion 24 Oct 2018 Leaked details of a Saudi journalist’s death have dominated Turkish media but President Erdogan hasn’t yet directly implicated the kindgom’s crown prince. Ankara may be hoping to use its leverage to help its economy. The lira has recovered, but cheap oil would still help.
Trump’s Saudi arms deal isn’t a jobs offensive 23 Oct 2018 The U.S. president is urging Congress not to sanction Saudi Arabia by blocking arms sales, saying that could jeopardize 1 million jobs. The deal would probably boost profit margins for Lockheed and others but not do much for employment. Claims to the contrary are largely spin.
The Exchange: Stephen Harper 19 Oct 2018 Canada’s former prime minister, in office through the financial meltdown a decade ago, is an advocate for conservative politics with a small “c.” He talked to Breakingviews about the revamped NAFTA, Donald Trump’s standoff with China and the pros and cons of the loonie.
Viewsroom: Saudi fiasco sets Wall Street ablaze 18 Oct 2018 Bankers and officials have ditched a huge Saudi shindig after Turkey accused the kingdom of killing a prominent journalist – but big deal fees and oil reserves make the kingdom hard to shun. Breakingviews columnists discuss the financial ramifications of the diplomatic crisis.
U.S.-EU derivatives kumbaya could get canned 18 Oct 2018 The U.S. swaps regulator wants to increase global cooperation. But trade tensions, Iran sanctions and a long and painful history of overreach by the U.S. itself are reasons for Europe to say no. Even though both sides could benefit, attempts at playing nice could come to grief.
Oil makes Saudi Arabia slippery sanctions target 16 Oct 2018 U.S. lawmakers are invoking a law used to impose Russian sanctions to demand answers about a missing journalist. There’s momentum for a similar penalty for the kingdom. But Saudi retaliation could hike oil prices - the opposite of what President Trump has been agitating for.
Wall Street shows Trump the way on Saudi Arabia 15 Oct 2018 BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone have joined other CEOs in skipping Riyadh’s “Davos in the Desert”. Private sector boycotts usually follow state sanctions. The U.S. government’s inaction reflects its reliance on Saudi Arabia, and fear of high oil prices.
Cox: Global finance has a Saudi Arabia problem 14 Oct 2018 Wall Street bosses and their European and Japanese peers are reconsidering next week’s “Davos in the Desert.” Like China, there’s money at stake. Unlike Russia there’s no guidance from above. A coordinated pullout following Jamie Dimon’s withdrawal is their least-bad option.
Car parts could be China’s trade sledgehammer 10 Oct 2018 Beijing is running out of U.S. imports to tax but it has other ways to make things ugly. American carmakers depend on an uninterrupted flow of imported parts, and China is the No. 2 supplier. Any attempt to disrupt component shipments could throttle the likes of Ford and GM.
Anti-OPEC bill may squeeze U.S. oil industry 10 Oct 2018 The disappearance of a Saudi journalist is helping to breathe life into a bipartisan effort to subject the cartel to U.S. antitrust law. But it may prove more useful as a threat than reality. America’s energy producers benefit from OPEC’s price-fixing, too.