China has a template to remake its Belt and Road 25 Jul 2019 The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has financed over $8 bln of projects while promoting high standards and responsible lending. It’s a sharp contrast to the amorphous, opaque Belt and Road. Officials looking to retool that initiative should learn from their own successes.
Taiwan spat moves Corporate America to frontline 16 Jul 2019 A $2.2 bln arms deal has led to hints of Beijing retaliating against Honeywell and others. Companies have long been caught in geopolitical crossfire, but U.S. assaults on Chinese tech firms suggest both sides could deploy such weapons more often. Boards should prepare for battle.
New trade-war ceasefire has familiar feel 29 Jun 2019 Donald Trump will restart talks with Xi Jinping and hold off imposing new tariffs on about $300 bln of Chinese exports. Huawei also got a nod at the G20 meeting. A deal may seem closer, but investors would be wise to hedge their bets. The last détente wound up falling apart.
Trump will be first to blink in China stare-down 24 Jun 2019 The U.S. president and counterpart Xi Jinping will try to restart trade talks at this week’s G20 summit. Trump may be hoping Beijing will back down, but he needs a deal more – and Xi is feeling combative. That could lead to an agreement with only a superficial U.S. victory.
Gloating over Hong Kong distracts Taipei 19 Jun 2019 President Tsai Ing-wen made an unlikely political comeback largely thanks to unrest in the financial centre that rallied anti-Beijing sentiment. But the island’s citizens are unlikely to glean any economic benefit from Hong Kong’s pain. Tsai’s reform to-do list remains too long.
Hurricane Trump may give Beijing some cover 14 Jun 2019 A torrent of rising U.S. tariffs threatens to wash out some of China’s growth. There’s far more behind the slowdown, but just as CEOs cite bad weather to obscure underlying issues, officials could use the trade war to release more stimulus or just blame Trump for missed targets.
Mexico truce is sad episode in trade reality show 10 Jun 2019 U.S. President Trump scrapped planned import taxes after Mexico pledged more action on migrant crossings – something it had already offered to do. It reinforces the illusion that levies are a potent way to tackle non-trade issues, and sets the scene for more unproductive drama.
Canada is caught in America’s trade-war crossfire 5 Jun 2019 President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico puts at risk the new version of the three-way NAFTA trade deal. Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO at America’s request upset China. And its uranium exports may now face levies, too. Ottawa can’t catch a break.
Huawei takes trade war into uncharted territory 21 May 2019 Washington's attack on one of China’s biggest companies will hurt suppliers. But the onslaught marks a more worrying turning point. Such a relentless assault on a corporate giant is virtually unprecedented; that makes everything unpredictable, including the rules of engagement.
The Exchange: Marco Polo 2.0 23 Apr 2019 Italy irked the United States by backing Beijing’s grand infrastructure plan. The country needs to improve ties with the People’s Republic to sell more wine and other exports, says Rome’s top China expert. Overcoming trade barriers will, however, require an EU team effort.
Saudi Arabia will feel Trump’s Iran slap too 22 Apr 2019 The U.S. president will fully enforce sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. Riyadh must pump more to prevent crude prices spiking further, which it has the scope to do. But doing Trump’s bidding will rankle OPEC peers. And the administration has a track record of changing its mind.
Trump-Kim breakdown is blessing in disguise 28 Feb 2019 The U.S. president said talks ended abruptly without a nuclear deal because North Korea wanted sanctions lifted for too little in return. Seoul markets understandably shuddered. A pause, however, provides time to think through the effects of an economically stronger Pyongyang.
China’s trade problems go well beyond Trump 21 Feb 2019 Beijing hopes harsh terms in any tariff pact could be undone if the U.S. president loses re-election. But Democratic White House hopefuls like Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders are also tough on China. No matter who wins in 2020, bashing the People’s Republic is here to stay.
Viewsroom: Why did PG&E file for bankruptcy? 31 Jan 2019 The California utility may face up to $30 bln in wildfire costs. But shareholders see value and lenders were willing to stump up cash. The board’s desire to cut other expenses may have driven the decision. Plus: How U.S. charges against Huawei may affect the telco industry.
Viewsroom: Global elite-lite takes Davos downer 24 Jan 2019 Pessimism reigns supreme at the annual gathering in the Swiss Alps thanks to trade wars, the U.S. government shutdown and rising populism. Several major leaders stayed away entirely. The event remains a networker’s dream, but self-awareness and problem-solving are sorely lacking.
Small nations will lose most from U.S. WTO fight 27 Dec 2018 The global trade body’s appeals panel may become paralyzed because of U.S. obstinacy. America, China and the EU can wring commerce concessions without filing complaints. Minnows like Panama and Moldova lack other recourse and will suffer if trade turns into a free-for-all.
A Trump versus Xi wrestling match might just help 26 Dec 2018 Maybe not a real one. But Tencent could tag-team with WWE to build Chinese versions of Triple H and The Undertaker, and vent a bit of trade tension. The $370 bln tech giant would make a burly partner; Tencent would score a PR coup, plus Trump access via co-founder Linda McMahon.
Shinzo Abe will strike accord with Donald Trump 19 Dec 2018 With some 5 mln autoworkers to protect from tariff pain, Japan’s prime minister will have little choice but to sign a bilateral U.S. trade deal. Expect the new NAFTA’s anti-China clause to feature. Seeking warmer relations with Tokyo, Beijing is apt to look the other way.
Canada faces off against vampire squid to south 17 Dec 2018 U.S. tax cuts and protectionism are going to suck the life out of the Canadian economy. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has two options: join the fiscal race to the bottom, or address the reasons Canada was already falling behind its neighbor. Looming elections add to the urgency.
Trade-war détente leaves booby traps for investors 2 Dec 2018 New tariffs are on hold while China vowed to buy more U.S. goods and may reconsider the Qualcomm-NXP deal. Despite the upbeat tone, President Trump and his hawkish advisers may push too hard. A small 90-day window to hash out an agreement also means things could easily blow up.