Finance wrestles with post-millennial tension 22 Jan 2016 Youngsters dominate the workforce, and the conversation at Davos. Fearful of losing talent, investment banks are giving millennials fewer hours, faster promotion and more leisure. What looks like a new trend is just a reversion to the mean – with some confused thinking thrown in.
China’s just-so growth no balm for slowdown fears 19 Jan 2016 The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.9 pct last year, in line with government targets. The official picture of a gradual slowdown is at odds with market jitters. Yet the numbers do little to ease investors’ key concerns: yuan devaluation and the risk of a messy debt crisis.
Newest tech fad: countries chasing startups 15 Jan 2016 Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants India to be a magnet for new companies. Hong Kong and Singapore have similar hopes. Politicians have long struggled to emulate Silicon Valley. The spreading government ambition is another measure of runaway enthusiasm for technology.
Weaker yuan would be no panacea for China Inc 14 Jan 2016 A sharp devaluation would yield some winners and losers: machinery-makers would gain and airlines would suffer. But overall this would do little for the real economy. Exports are a declining driver of Chinese growth.
Behavioral economics wins $1.5 bln U.S. lottery 13 Jan 2016 The biggest-ever jackpot for a single ticket-holder hangs in the balance. State officials helped engineer the Powerball frenzy by tapping into the sorts of theories advanced by Nobelist Daniel Kahneman and others. It takes more than a dollar and a dream to woo punters these days.
China’s troubles catch Japan off-guard 12 Jan 2016 Japan is highly sensitive to its larger neighbour’s economic health. Market turmoil is also strengthening the yen, threatening profit and prices. This could hardly come at a worse time: policymakers already battling deflation and stagnation have few levers left to pull.
U.S. jobs bring gorging market bears up short 8 Jan 2016 Strong employment gains in December support the Fed’s planned gradual rate hikes. The global New Year stock slide stalled, too. Chinese markets stabilized, and investors relished the 292,000 American jobs added last month. The outlook may be murky, but it’s not all bad.
European populism poised for troubling second wave 31 Dec 2015 Southern Europe’s high debts and unemployment made it ripe for populism, but movements like Podemos have been held in check partly by economic recovery. They may now gather steam in other European countries, feeding on growing anti-immigration and eurosceptic sentiment.
Giants of central banking will be cut down to size 30 Dec 2015 The limited power of the Draghis and Yellens of the world is evident. They can’t conjure up inflation and the market impact of unorthodox monetary policies has waned. Rate-setters did their bit to support the global economy. It’s time fiscal and wage policies did more work.
China index: Economy suffers winter blues 29 Dec 2015 Our index climbed a little higher in November, but underlying data gave little cause for cheer. Exports and rail freight volumes tumbled, investment in residential property suffered the steepest fall since Breakingviews records began in 2008, and pollution hit a 13-month high.
Clinton White House run clouded by home economics 28 Dec 2015 The Democrat who could become America’s first female commander-in-chief in November is ahead in early polls and at the bookies. Growth is up and unemployment down under Obama, too. It might not be enough, though: traditionally, voters only reward bigger economic dividends.
Top trades of 2016: Clinton, Mayer, Isis and Uber 18 Dec 2015 A survey of Breakingviews readers suggests that a year from now, the U.S. will have its first female president and Yahoo’s CEO may be free to give her a hand. Uber’s valuation will stall, as worries about Islamic State accelerate. In other news, Twitter hasn’t made us any happier.
U.S. OK for IMF reforms could come just in time 17 Dec 2015 Congress has wedged ratification of five-year-old changes into a deal to keep Washington running. The measures would give China and other emerging economies more say. With Venezuela one country that looks close to default, the IMF may soon need all the unity it can muster.
Global corporate profit is under serious threat 17 Dec 2015 U.S. companies are earning close to the most in five decades as measured against national income. It’s a worldwide trend, with bottom lines far larger as a share of GDP than in 1980. Competition, disruption and tax policy – along with weaker growth – are set to change all that.
Global economy depends on more than India in 2016 17 Dec 2015 The subcontinent’s expanding GDP is one of next year’s few economic bright spots. But the sluggish United States and decelerating China will still account for nearly half of global growth. Any negative shocks from the two sputtering engines will reverberate widely.
Japan index: Onwards and upwards 16 Dec 2015 Business confidence is holding up and revised data shows Japan dodged a technical recession. Our index also suggests the economic picture may be improving. In October the gauge reached its highest point since 2000: prices, stocks, lending, wages and consumption all crept up.
Zuma is making South Africa’s bad situation worse 10 Dec 2015 Local markets are diving after the president sacked his finance chief. Domestic woes include acute electricity shortages, drought and strikes. Investors are apt to lump the country in with the likes of recessionary Brazil. Firing the money man will only confirm their prejudices.
Jobs in Japan outweigh recession-that-wasn’t 8 Dec 2015 Revised data show Japan avoided six straight months of economic shrinkage after all. Bravo. But GDP figures are always volatile and technical recessions count for little in low-growth countries. For Japanese policymakers, the priority is ensuring a healthy labour market and boosting inflation.
Review: Another "Minsky moment" may be on the way 27 Nov 2015 Hyman Minsky didn’t just predict the global financial crisis 10 years in advance, a new book on him argues. The maverick economist also explained how the cure – bailouts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks - would drive the financial system to the brink yet again.
UK’s Osborne is less austere than he makes out 25 Nov 2015 Finance minister George Osborne isn’t quite the budget zealot his Nov. 25 spending cuts suggest. The UK has run bigger deficits relative to GDP than France during his tenure. He has also executed tax and spending U-turns when required. It helps that gilt investors buy the hype.