California helps Paris send solar message 11 May 2018 The most populous U.S. state is making panels mandatory on most homes built after 2020. It will cut emissions only a little. But the clean-energy focus will push other states along. Fossil-fuel producers will have fewer excuses to ignore the renewable writing on the wall, too.
Malaysia can push for a healthy China rebalance 11 May 2018 Mahathir Mohamad has accused his predecessor of selling out to Beijing, and vows to review deals. The country's strategic position and historic ties with the People's Republic gives him leverage to reset the relationship. But Malaysia needs China too, so the haggle will stay polite.
Holding: A bribe is a bribe, abroad or at home 10 May 2018 AT&T and Novartis would risk criminal prosecution if they paid a foreign leader’s pal for political influence. Yet handing big bucks to Trump fixer Michael Cohen seems well within U.S. law. The double standard undermines America’s claim “to spread the gospel of anti-corruption.”
Malaysian political shock may hold sting for banks 10 May 2018 Wall Street fingerprints were all over the $4.5 bln 1MDB sovereign fund scandal. Malaysia’s new government, and others overseas, could reopen or step up enquiries – and come after lenders that raised and moved money. That poses renewed risk for Goldman and Deutsche Bank.
1MDB poses fresh threat to Najib – and Malaysia 10 May 2018 With a shock election defeat, the outgoing prime minister's top defence against the $4.5 bln fund scandal has gone. Old enquiries may reopen at home and overseas agencies have less reason to go easy on him. Najib could be tempted into the dangerous politics of mutual destruction.
Turkish politics will subvert currency defence 10 May 2018 President Tayyip Erdogan wants to support the lira, which has hit record lows against the dollar. That would require measures to curb inflation and the current account deficit. His efforts to pump-prime growth, especially before June elections, will achieve the exact opposite.
Markets want soothing after Malaysia poll upset 10 May 2018 Mahathir Mohamad has won a bitterly contested election. The shock victory will rattle investors, who will fret about the country's economic growth momentum and future ties with China. For now, a quickly formed government and clear economic agenda can limit market turbulence.
Sturm Ruger owners show D.C. the way on gun safety 9 May 2018 Investors overrode executives to back a proposal from Catholic nuns demanding that the maker of AR-15 assault-style weapons report on what it’s doing to make firearms safer. It’s part of a growing realization that America’s gun violence problem has business implications, too.
Saudi gets new license to be selfish over oil 9 May 2018 Since 2016 the kingdom has championed output cuts that have drained a supply glut and helped spur prices. Now that the U.S. President has amped up sanctions on Iran, Saudi can fill any gap left by lower Iranian exports. What it loses on price, it gains in volume and U.S. gratitude.
AT&T’s quest for Trump insight is ham-fisted 9 May 2018 The telecom firm paid a company connected to one of the president’s lawyers to try and get a handle on the administration. It's embarrassing at best. It also muddies the water for AT&T as it fights watchdogs to keep its $85 bln deal for Time Warner alive.
The Exchange: The fate of Venezuela 8 May 2018 The OPEC member’s mismanaged economy is in freefall and its oil output collapsing. Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America fixed-income strategy at Nomura Securities, tells Martin Langfield how President Nicolas Maduro may lose power even if he wins a controversial May 20 election.
Cheques for millennials stokes UK’s asset bubble 8 May 2018 Young people face a turbulent labour market and have less asset wealth than their elders. A think tank’s idea of reforming inheritance tax and giving 25-year-olds 10,000 pounds is better than nothing. But it risks further inflating house prices without deeper structural changes.
Italian election sequel could favour right wing 8 May 2018 Failure to form a coalition government after the inconclusive March vote raises the chances of a snap poll, possibly as soon as July. That would benefit the rightist League and its allies, which won recent local elections. But it prolongs the country’s political uncertainty.
Emerging markets split into haves and have-nots 8 May 2018 A stronger dollar and higher U.S. bond yields have hit Argentina, Indonesia and Turkey especially hard. But others like the Philippines are in sounder economic shape. Buoyant oil prices create winners as well as losers. For investors, discrimination is the better part of valour.
Review: Saving central bankers from the mob 4 May 2018 How much influence should technocrats wield in a democracy? That’s the question former Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker attempts to answer in “Unelected Power”. His reply is thoughtful and robust but might end up drowned out by fractious politics or another downturn.
Hong Kong reveals capital imbalance in LGBT spat 4 May 2018 The city is fighting to stop a lesbian from obtaining a spousal visa. Morgan Stanley, Freshfields and others have backed the woman's case, recognising the value of human capital. Hong Kong favours the financial kind, evidenced by the relaxation of rules to attract more IPOs.
U.S.-China trade gap adds spice to tariff talks 3 May 2018 The American trade deficit fell in March, yet the goods gap with China, $106 bln this year so far, keeps widening. That gives Steven Mnuchin more ammunition for meetings in Beijing. Threats of levies on imported goods may, more usefully, help prise open China’s service markets.
Capitalism shunts all else aside in Beverly Hills 2 May 2018 Markets are fine, volatility is modest and trade war isn’t a big deal, say delegates at junk-bond king Michael Milken’s annual L.A. summit. In other words, the freewheeling spirit Milken once embodied is back in vogue. Thank President Trump – and a dose of complacency.
Glencore can dig its way out of Kinshasa quagmire 30 Apr 2018 A former partner is threatening to freeze two of the $71 bln commodity giant's operations in Congo, demanding $3 bln. It's the latest in a list of woes in the African country, including a tough new mining code. But the 6 pct drop in the stock over the past week is overblown.
Nigeria’s FX reserve fetish is bad for growth 30 Apr 2018 President Muhammadu Buhari is vaunting a rapid rise in foreign exchange reserves. A decent war chest is worth having in case the naira needs defending. But accumulating a vast pile of dollars will deprive the economy of the hard currency it needs to keep growing and create jobs.