Politics cripples shaky China-UK stock link 2 Jan 2020 Irritated by British attitudes towards Hong Kong, Beijing has suspended the scheme that connects equity markets in London and Shanghai. Already struggling, the initiative will be hard to revive. The UK loses potential new business, while China ends up more dependent on New York.
Investors warming to Putin’s Russia will go cold 2 Jan 2020 Inbound retail and technology deals suggest the business climate is improving. It helps that U.S. lawmakers are too busy with impeachment proceedings and an election to enact major new sanctions. But big, if hollow, spending plans aren’t taking off. Economic torpor will persist.
How our 2019 predictions played out 27 Dec 2019 As Breakingviews publishes its columnists’ prognostications for next year, we look back at the previous crop. We had some bloopers – not least on GE, the ECB and Tesla. But we also hit some on the nose, from SoftBank write-downs to Argentina’s president being voted out of office.
LatAm leaders will be trapped in vicious cycle 26 Dec 2019 Protests across the region will make growth even lousier in 2020, which in turn will make people even angrier. The presidents of Chile and Ecuador are most exposed. Expect them to water down reforms in a bid to stay in office. Whether it works or not, their economies will suffer.
Team Trump will steal Warren’s tech thunder 26 Dec 2019 The Democratic presidential candidate has made breaking up Silicon Valley giants like Facebook and Amazon a key part of her campaign. But the White House could use a recent antitrust probe to make the case first, and effectively mute much of Warren’s roar.
It’s the suburbs, not the economy, stupid 24 Dec 2019 Most Americans like President Trump’s handling of the economy, which would normally bode well for re-election in November. But his overall approval rating is just 46%. That’ll shift the fight to healthcare and other issues, while handing moderate suburbanites a deciding voice.
India Insight: Onion prices add to nation’s tears 23 Dec 2019 Amid violent protests over a citizenship law, Indians are also having to deal with poor harvests for this staple of the curry dish. It’s a glimpse into how changing climate patterns will exacerbate inefficiencies and create more of the volatility famous for toppling governments.
Review: Bloomberg primer goes beyond hagiography 20 Dec 2019 A recent bio of the former New York mayor and Wall Street information tycoon was given relevancy by his unconventional bid to replace Donald Trump. It’s a book that might have just sat on the shelf gathering dust but for the fact he might have a shot at the presidency.
Jack Dorsey adds third job as anti-Facebook hero 20 Dec 2019 The awkward Twitter boss banned political ads and did more than Mark Zuckerberg’s social network to prevent the silencing of Hong Kong protesters. Dorsey, also CEO of Square, fared surprisingly well in D.C. hearings, too. His style will put heat on rivals as U.S. elections loom.
China swaps its poor for the merely miserable 20 Dec 2019 Beijing will hit its 2020 target of doubling disposable incomes and GDP in 10 years, while eliminating extreme poverty. That’s laudable, but forcing breakneck growth exacerbated inequality, while consumer debt ballooned. Political and financial risks are higher as a result.
Viewsroom: Jack Dorsey’s heroic year ahead 19 Dec 2019 From banning political ads to developing cryptocurrency plans, the CEO of Twitter and Square has been politically more astute than rivals like Facebook. That sets him up for a good 2020. Also: the different ways that shareholders, the Fed and M&A bankers will tackle climate risk.
Beijing’s bet on Macau market might pay 19 Dec 2019 Worried by violent protests in Hong Kong, President Xi wants to turn the casino enclave into a rival finance hub. Scepticism is warranted, but an open capital account gives it an advantage over Shenzhen and Shanghai. If it plays a good reform hand, Macau could defy the odds.
Investors will rue their Hong Kong risk appetite 19 Dec 2019 The city’s stocks have lagged the S&P 500 since violent protests started in June. Yet the slide has been less severe than during the Asian financial crisis or the SARS outbreak. Local unrest, trade tensions and a U.S. market reversal should prompt some overdue reconsideration.
Tariff strain will outlast Trump, impeached or not 18 Dec 2019 The U.S. president will likely be the third to be charged with high crimes and misdemeanors. Whatever the Senate decides on his fate, he’s made another historic mark: normalizing trade tactics as punishment. It will long be a part of the economic toolkit in America and elsewhere.
Lebanon’s financial alchemy is losing its magic 18 Dec 2019 The world’s third most indebted nation – with borrowings north of 150% of GDP – may be careening toward a default and an IMF rescue. A complex financial engineering scheme that propped up the banking system is now sputtering. Local banks and foreign bondholders could take a hit.
Taiwan will widen U.S.-China schism in 2020 18 Dec 2019 The island's significance in supply chains stands to grow as manufacturing shifts accelerate. Anti-Beijing sentiment is also gaining traction in the United States. Both dynamics herald deeper ties between Taipei and Washington, bolstering the case for a controversial trade deal.
India drops social wildfire on economic tinder 17 Dec 2019 A law easing the path to citizenship for some non-Muslim migrants has led to violent protests and a partial internet shutdown. Japan’s Shinzo Abe cancelled a visit. With growth slow and jobs a problem, it’s a risky time to tinker with divisive issues.
Trump and Xi go back to square minus-one 13 Dec 2019 The U.S. president will gradually roll back tariffs while his Chinese counterpart has agreed to buy more U.S. crops. Tit-for-tat taxes are halted, not shelved, and thorny issues like forced tech transfers linger. It’s stability, but companies are worse off than when they started.
Corbyn loss offers economic pointers for Democrats 13 Dec 2019 Victorious Prime Minister Boris Johnson was an eminently beatable candidate, approval ratings showed. But the Labour leader’s radically socialist alternative proved a bigger turn-off. Despite local differences, there are lessons for those hoping to challenge Donald Trump.
UK stock discount will outlast Boris Johnson win 13 Dec 2019 The FTSE 250 Index of more domestic mid-cap companies jumped 4% after the prime minister’s election victory. That only partly narrows a valuation gap with U.S. and European stocks. Uncertainty about a post-Brexit trade deal and Scottish independence justify a continued haircut.