Saudi nuclear ambitions may further fray U.S. ties 14 Jan 2020 Riyadh could soon award tenders to build two nuclear reactors. Picking Russia’s Rosatom would heighten tensions with Washington, its traditional ally. And if the kingdom also lobbies for scope to create nuclear weapons, it would make for an awkward comparison with archfoe Iran.
Trump adds fake currency news to trade armory 13 Jan 2020 The U.S. government will stop accusing Beijing of yuan manipulation as part of a limited tariff deal. The dubious claim was born of presidential ire. But its arguable success makes it a useful stick for the White House – a worry for those with growing trade deficits like Vietnam.
Taiwan’s revival is Tsai’s to squander 13 Jan 2020 The independence-leaning president has coasted into a second term on anti-Beijing sentiment and a strong $580 bln economy. Tsai Ing-wen can take credit for neither. After wasting an earlier opportunity, she now has another to fix poor infrastructure that threatens growth.
Sultan Qaboos’ legacy of peace looks safe for now 12 Jan 2020 Oman’s iconic leader is dead after a 50-year reign. The risk of upheaval has been eased by the appointment of his cousin, and regional tensions that have subsided in recent days. But the longer-term scope for weak finances to hit Muscat’s role as a key Gulf mediator remains.
New York entertains a lesson in secession 10 Jan 2020 Staten Island may reanimate a 26-year-old bid to break away from the Big Apple. There are countless reasons not to, and the economic case is sketchy – but residents could back it anyway. New York’s “forgotten borough” is a fitting ambassador for a world that’s getting smaller.
Hong Kong bourse boss trusts in awkward necessity 10 Jan 2020 Charles Li has seen HKEX earnings plunge on political unrest as Beijing mulls alternative venues. Yet Li is confident China’s market inefficiencies will leave it dependent on Hong Kong’s financial plumbing in the end. The exchange’s reviving share price suggests investors agree.
Gulf’s long-serving ruler is ailing at a bad time 9 Jan 2020 Oman’s Sultan Qaboos is ill. For 50 years the iconic leader has positioned his realm as a neutral Gulf player. If he dies as the Iran crisis rages, an opaque succession process and shaky finances could deprive a fractious region of a key backchannel when it’s most needed.
Viewsroom: Hong Kong’s uncertain 2020 9 Jan 2020 Political unrest continues to roil the financial hub. For investors, though, it’s mostly business as usual as markets take protests in their stride. As Beijing replaces its top representative in the city, and makes other changes, that uneasy balance may be hard to sustain.
Aramco’s war-risk snake trumps oil-price ladder 6 Jan 2020 The threat of U.S. sanctions on Iraq should boost the oil price, and the Saudi giant’s value. Yet its shares have slumped to their lowest level since trading commenced last month. That may be because the company’s operations are more likely to be a target for Iranian retaliation.
Middle East strife’s market toll is just beginning 3 Jan 2020 Oil prices rose more than 3% and global bourses fell after a U.S. air strike killed Iran’s top military leader, Qassem Soleimani. The Islamic republic may well follow up its rhetoric of revenge with action. Investors now have a real war, not just a trade one, to fret about.
Politics cripples shaky China-UK stock link 2 Jan 2020 Irritated by British attitudes towards Hong Kong, Beijing has suspended the scheme that connects equity markets in London and Shanghai. Already struggling, the initiative will be hard to revive. The UK loses potential new business, while China ends up more dependent on New York.
Investors warming to Putin’s Russia will go cold 2 Jan 2020 Inbound retail and technology deals suggest the business climate is improving. It helps that U.S. lawmakers are too busy with impeachment proceedings and an election to enact major new sanctions. But big, if hollow, spending plans aren’t taking off. Economic torpor will persist.
How our 2019 predictions played out 27 Dec 2019 As Breakingviews publishes its columnists’ prognostications for next year, we look back at the previous crop. We had some bloopers – not least on GE, the ECB and Tesla. But we also hit some on the nose, from SoftBank write-downs to Argentina’s president being voted out of office.
LatAm leaders will be trapped in vicious cycle 26 Dec 2019 Protests across the region will make growth even lousier in 2020, which in turn will make people even angrier. The presidents of Chile and Ecuador are most exposed. Expect them to water down reforms in a bid to stay in office. Whether it works or not, their economies will suffer.
Team Trump will steal Warren’s tech thunder 26 Dec 2019 The Democratic presidential candidate has made breaking up Silicon Valley giants like Facebook and Amazon a key part of her campaign. But the White House could use a recent antitrust probe to make the case first, and effectively mute much of Warren’s roar.
It’s the suburbs, not the economy, stupid 24 Dec 2019 Most Americans like President Trump’s handling of the economy, which would normally bode well for re-election in November. But his overall approval rating is just 46%. That’ll shift the fight to healthcare and other issues, while handing moderate suburbanites a deciding voice.
India Insight: Onion prices add to nation’s tears 23 Dec 2019 Amid violent protests over a citizenship law, Indians are also having to deal with poor harvests for this staple of the curry dish. It’s a glimpse into how changing climate patterns will exacerbate inefficiencies and create more of the volatility famous for toppling governments.
Review: Bloomberg primer goes beyond hagiography 20 Dec 2019 A recent bio of the former New York mayor and Wall Street information tycoon was given relevancy by his unconventional bid to replace Donald Trump. It’s a book that might have just sat on the shelf gathering dust but for the fact he might have a shot at the presidency.
Jack Dorsey adds third job as anti-Facebook hero 20 Dec 2019 The awkward Twitter boss banned political ads and did more than Mark Zuckerberg’s social network to prevent the silencing of Hong Kong protesters. Dorsey, also CEO of Square, fared surprisingly well in D.C. hearings, too. His style will put heat on rivals as U.S. elections loom.
China swaps its poor for the merely miserable 20 Dec 2019 Beijing will hit its 2020 target of doubling disposable incomes and GDP in 10 years, while eliminating extreme poverty. That’s laudable, but forcing breakneck growth exacerbated inequality, while consumer debt ballooned. Political and financial risks are higher as a result.