War & Conflict

Capital Calls: Biden channels Trump on China

16 Sep 2021

Concise views on global finance: After losing an Australian submarine deal, the French accused the U.S. president of acting like his predecessor. They’re right that there’s bipartisan antipathy towards Beijing in Washington. They’d better hope the similarity ends there.

Guinea coup is win for Australia and Brazil

6 Sep 2021

Soldiers have deposed the West African nation’s president, Alpha Condé. Besides disruption to bauxite exports, the upheaval may upend development of the Simandou mine’s 8.6 billion tonnes of iron ore deposits, capable of adding 10% to global output. Rival diggers will be smiling.

Afghanistan’s financial lifeline may lie in Qatar

27 Aug 2021

The state needs help to prevent an economic collapse. If gas-rich Doha provided funds, as it has to other stricken regimes, it could embolden critics who claim it is too close to militants. But Qatar has a chance to avoid past mistakes and shore up its status as a power broker.

Financially isolating Afghanistan is pointless

25 Aug 2021

Much of the budget has evaporated with the abrupt halt on aid, and an effective U.S. freeze on central bank reserves is compounding the chaos. An economic collapse will only fan extremism and refugee outflows. Targeted support is urgently needed to preserve development gains.

Capital Calls: Pfizer M&A, Uber driver status

23 Aug 2021

The drugmaker has agreed to acquire Trillium Therapeutics for $2.3 billion, looking to its broader post-coronavirus strategy; a California judge has struck down a law exempting tech companies from treating drivers as full employees, complicating their push to keep costs down.

Viewsroom: China’s Afghanistan question

19 Aug 2021

Beijing was able to expand its influence in central Asia while America and its allies held back the Taliban. The Islamic fundamentalists’ return to power presents China with new challenges – and opportunities. Plus: CEO Mike Henry shakes up mining giant BHP.

Dixon: Afghan crisis is climate risk, opportunity

19 Aug 2021

The Western alliance may be so damaged it can’t provide climate leadership. Global decarbonisation plans would fail to build momentum, storing up massive financial pain. But there’s a chance the West will regroup – and devise a Pax Planeta to replace the failed Pax Americana.

Afghanistan puts China firmly on leadership hook

16 Aug 2021

Beijing might exploit the collapse of the U.S.-backed state to consolidate economic influence in central Asia and improve energy security. But a volatile theocracy could also threaten its rising regional investments, and ultimately suck it into the mess the Americans fled.

South Africa has no money to throw at its problems

15 Jul 2021

The Rainbow Nation is suffering its worst civil unrest since the end of apartheid in 1994. The ruling ANC’s usual response to cracks in the social fabric is to fill them with new subsidies. With debt at 80% of GDP and rising fast, that has a limited shelf-life.

Capital Calls: Gates split, Chinese IPOs, Telenor

8 Jul 2021

Concise views on global finance: Bill and Melinda Gates agree a post-divorce plan for their joint charitable organisation; medical data firm LinkDoc is among the first to pull its U.S. listing; the Norwegian telco gets just $105 mln for unit hobbled by Myanmar junta.

Israel’s military effort has an economic shield

17 May 2021

Hostilities are entering a second week. Despite the struggle to form a new government, a strong vaccine record and a solid current account surplus mean the economy is in relatively decent shape. The conflict would have to drag on for a few months and escalate for that to change.

Capital Calls: Betway, U.S. banks, Vaccine feud

26 Apr 2021

Concise views on global finance: Another online betting group goes public by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company; some financial firms are racing to capture nearly-free funding from American depositors; Europe faces a long and costly fight for AstraZeneca vaccines.

The Exchange: Rwanda’s dark side

13 Apr 2021

Under Paul Kagame, the East African state has gone from genocidal hellhole to wannabe Singapore. Michela Wrong, author of critical biography “Do Not Disturb”, explains how, in feting the ex-guerrilla president, donors and investors ignored autocracy and murder.

Babcock CEO’s reset comes with valuation upside

9 Apr 2021

David Lockwood may soon unveil a writedown at the 1 bln pound UK engineering group, which is also saddled with heavy debt. Those concerns obscure the relatively promising trend of UK defence spending. Lockwood’s CV offers hope of a cleanup – and significantly higher share price.

Mozambique’s gas loss could be green energy’s gain

6 Apr 2021

Islamic State attacks near future LNG sites have shattered the African state’s dreams of gas production. Plants planned by Total and Exxon Mobil constitute 8% of current world demand. If they are never built, a mid-decade price spike may hasten a global pivot to renewable power.

Review: Bellingcat’s model upends journalism

12 Feb 2021

Eliot Higgins’ book describes how the open-source investigator used online images to reveal who downed a plane in Ukraine and poisoned a Russian defector in Britain. His donor-funded and volunteer-driven approach offers broader lessons for the newsgathering business.

Ethiopia piles war risk on shaky economy

24 Nov 2020

Civil conflict is sending the once fast-growing African nation into reverse. Lenders and donors may withdraw, deepening a dollar crunch from reduced investment and exports. High debt and reliance on foreign capital leave PM Abiy Ahmed ill-placed for a prolonged crisis.

Mubarak’s downfall taught Egypt’s Sisi key lessons

25 Feb 2020

During his three decades in charge, the former strongman, who has died aged 91, valued political stability above all else. Bolder currency reform might have defused some Arab Spring anger. Current leader Sisi took note, but has also so far been better at keeping the army on side.

Iran will decide if oil bulls outdo gold bugs

7 Jan 2020

Middle East tensions have boosted crude prices more than that of the precious metal. Tehran could yet attack Saudi oil fields or disrupt the vital Strait of Hormuz. Anything less than that would see gold, which was already in high demand, outperform.

Aramco’s war-risk snake trumps oil-price ladder

6 Jan 2020

The threat of U.S. sanctions on Iraq should boost the oil price, and the Saudi giant’s value. Yet its shares have slumped to their lowest level since trading commenced last month. That may be because the company’s operations are more likely to be a target for Iranian retaliation.