Xerox colors in its avant-garde HP outline 6 Jan 2020 The copier group now has bank commitments for $24 bln of debt for its Carl Icahn-backed $33 bln bid to buy larger rival HP. That removes one big question about a proposed deal that still seems the wrong way around. It puts pressure on HP to talk, or come up with something better.
Predictions: The heat’s rising everywhere in 2020 6 Jan 2020 Expect investors and banks to join the climate-change fight; pain in Russia and South Africa; heightened risk in Hong Kong; and U.S. elections testing Wall Street nerves. Opportunities will abound, too. All this and more awaits in a pivotal year for politics, profit and planet.
An ever-drier world will unleash investment flood 6 Jan 2020 By 2030 humans will be using 56% more water than is sustainable, a new report shows. Closing the gap may cost $1 trln a year. But companies and investors are showing more interest in preventing a global water crisis. That bodes well for finding solutions – and making a profit.
Predictions 2020: Turning up the heat 6 Jan 2020 Expect investors and banks to join the climate-change fight; pain in Russia and South Africa; heightened risk in Hong Kong; and U.S. elections testing Wall Street nerves. Opportunities will abound, too. All this and more awaits in a pivotal year for politics, profit and planet.
Buyout barons will be next to face pay backlash 6 Jan 2020 Private-equity managers can earn more than company CEOs or bankers, whose remuneration has drawn most scrutiny in recent years. The $4 trln industry is now too big to stay under the radar. A surge in company failures would make well-paid dealmakers easy targets for politicians.
Aramco’s war-risk snake trumps oil-price ladder 6 Jan 2020 The threat of U.S. sanctions on Iraq should boost the oil price, and the Saudi giant’s value. Yet its shares have slumped to their lowest level since trading commenced last month. That may be because the company’s operations are more likely to be a target for Iranian retaliation.
South Africa’s Absa opts for safety-first recovery 6 Jan 2020 The $9 bln group made former central bank deputy Daniel Mminele its new CEO. Like other local lenders, the former Barclays unit needs growth from elsewhere on the continent to offset domestic weakness. Installing a career regulator suggests little appetite for a high-risk charge.
Europe will emulate Japan’s foreign takeover binge 6 Jan 2020 A shrinking domestic market and cheap money prompted Japanese firms to ramp up abroad. Their EU counterparts already have greater international exposure but face similar stagnation and demographics at home. Watch the shopping habits of Siemens, Eni, Roche, ING, SocGen and others.
The Exchange: India’s water crisis 6 Jan 2020 Kicking off Predictions 2020, Amit Chandra of Bain, Reshma Anand of Hindustan Unilever Foundation and Mridula Ramesh of the Sundaram Climate Institute come together in Mumbai to discuss who should pay for the scarce resource, and how the private sector can map out its true cost.
Beijing steers green cars in a new direction 6 Jan 2020 Subsidy cuts exposed tepid demand for electric vehicles in a country that accounts for 40% of global sales. Hybrids will gain stronger state support instead. China’s sway spells trouble for the likes of Tesla and Nio while giving a charge to others including Toyota and Honda.
Hong Kong poised to reclaim IPO crown 6 Jan 2020 It has been a decade since the Asian financial hub beat the Big Apple in new equity issuance. Violent protests are a challenge, but Alibaba provided some reassurance. The U.S. backlash against China and a stable of mainland unicorns will help make Hong Kong No. 1 again in 2020.
Big Tech will be both friend and foe to Big Pharma 3 Jan 2020 A programme developed by Google has beaten doctors in detecting malignant tumours. Artificial intelligence could save patients’ lives and help drugmakers develop more sophisticated treatments. Yet better screening could also help governments and insurers rein in drug spending.
Beyond Meat readies for a difficult second course 3 Jan 2020 The meatless burger maker was a capital markets star in 2019, and sports triple-digit revenue growth. But it also bears the risks of uncertain demand, dependence on retailers and fierce rivals. Founder Ethan Brown could learn from another once-racy consumer brand: Under Armour.
Argentina debt do-over is even chancier than usual 3 Jan 2020 The country will need to restructure at least $100 bln of its borrowings, not just tweak terms as the Fernandez government favors. The novel features attached to Argentine debt after its last default may bring unexpected twists. The results will shape future sovereign debt deals.
Middle East strife’s market toll is just beginning 3 Jan 2020 Oil prices rose more than 3% and global bourses fell after a U.S. air strike killed Iran’s top military leader, Qassem Soleimani. The Islamic republic may well follow up its rhetoric of revenge with action. Investors now have a real war, not just a trade one, to fret about.
West African monetary union expansion is high risk 3 Jan 2020 The region is rebranding its CFA franc as the eco and watering down French influence in how the currency is managed. True, Paris will still guarantee a peg with the euro. But a potential new member, Ghana, is already militating for the link to be ditched. That would be a mistake.
Deutsche, Commerz get 30-year reunification bonus 3 Jan 2020 New businesses flourished after East Germany rejoined the West in 1990. Their founders are now approaching retirement, and heirs may have no interest in running the family firm. That’ll spark a Mittelstand M&A boom, bringing much-needed fees for the country’s embattled banks.
HSBC’s Hong Kong headache looks like its worst 3 Jan 2020 Demonstrators vandalized bank branches after police froze a protest-related account. HSBC earns over half its profit in the former British territory, so boycott threats and the current recession are big risks. With Beijing on his back, interim CEO Noel Quinn has few good options.
Underdog will take home Japan’s casino jackpot 3 Jan 2020 Malaysia’s Genting is not the bookies' favourite as it competes for a coveted licence in the new market, worth $10 bln or more. But while it lacks Galaxy’s glitz or the scale of Las Vegas Sands, the betting group’s success in super strict Singapore will give it a winning edge.
NBA legend’s globalization lesson still unfinished 2 Jan 2020 David Stern, who died on Jan. 1, revamped a flailing U.S. basketball league by turning athletes into billion-dollar brands. The star system he created as commissioner is a slam dunk, but the spirit of cross-border openness that helped the NBA go global has lost some bounce.
Viewsroom: Green M&A in 2020 2 Jan 2020 CEOs increasingly talk a good game on climate change, but the financial implications of global warming have played a small role in dealmaking so far. That will change in the year ahead. Also: why the video-game industry should be bracing for a political backlash.
Hotter inflation is the best surprise to hope for 2 Jan 2020 The absence of much price pressure is a head-scratcher for the Fed given the tight U.S. labor market. It’s behind debilitating negative interest rates in Europe and Japan. It’s a problem for pension funds, insurers, savers and banks. A mild return would be unexpected but welcome.
Carlos Ghosn helps the 1% end decade on-brand 2 Jan 2020 Nissan’s ex-boss didn’t like Japan’s justice system, and so arranged an escape to his former home Lebanon. The grotesque use of wealth ties a bow on a lucrative 10-year run for the ultra-rich. Leave it to a man who once partied at Versailles to rally the anti-plutocracy movement.
Politics cripples shaky China-UK stock link 2 Jan 2020 Irritated by British attitudes towards Hong Kong, Beijing has suspended the scheme that connects equity markets in London and Shanghai. Already struggling, the initiative will be hard to revive. The UK loses potential new business, while China ends up more dependent on New York.
Greta Thunberg will clog EU budget-airline engines 2 Jan 2020 Climate change will make regulators rethink free carbon credits and impose fuel taxes, hitting easyJet and Norwegian Air hard. More pain would come if the teen activist-inspired drop in Swedish air travel spreads across Europe. All in, 48 bln euros of industry value is at risk.
Investors warming to Putin’s Russia will go cold 2 Jan 2020 Inbound retail and technology deals suggest the business climate is improving. It helps that U.S. lawmakers are too busy with impeachment proceedings and an election to enact major new sanctions. But big, if hollow, spending plans aren’t taking off. Economic torpor will persist.
Mukesh Ambani’s empire will be cast in fresh light 2 Jan 2020 India’s richest man can reap two big benefits from carving up his sprawling Reliance Industries. First, he would fulfill a promise to make the $130 bln oil-to-telecom conglomerate almost free of debt. It also should help achieve a higher, tech-like valuation from investors.
A health craze for 2020: Chinese medicine 2 Jan 2019 A locally-developed cancer therapy from the People's Republic has won U.S. approval for the first time. For pharmaceutical giants, discovering a made-in-China blockbuster drug may be within reach. Cross-border deals will follow, as will some unexpected side effects.