Guest view: Colombia’s struggle against poverty 11 May 2021 President Duque’s shift of tax burdens to the poor and middle class backfired. Despite their withdrawal and the finance minister’s exit, protests will continue until the country starts reversing Latin America’s worst income inequality, Smith College’s Veronica Kessler writes.
Guest view: Latin America has a Covid-19 cash gap 16 Oct 2020 Economic weakness has helped make the region’s health crisis one of the world’s worst, write former Citibank Chairman William Rhodes and epidemiologist Cristina Valencia. Even if a vaccine arrives, the recovery will demand more direct funding from the international community.
Corona Capital: Latin America and Covid-19 8 Apr 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Six Latin American countries want a $15 billion loan to help fight Covid-19. "There's no harm in trying" says Peru's president, a sad sentiment reflecting the global shortage of needed equipment.
White House’s small trade deals don’t add up 7 Aug 2018 U.S. officials hailed Morocco’s opening to U.S. poultry, just as they did recent moves by Colombia on rice and Argentina on pork. But projected export gains of $35 mln are chicken feed relative to the $114 bln in American goods threatened by other countries’ retaliatory tariffs.
Colombia’s likely leader less safe than he looks 15 Jun 2018 Conservative Ivan Duque leads polls ahead of Sunday’s presidential runoff. He is the more markets-friendly candidate, though his animosity to a peace deal with FARC rebels and Colombians’ distrust of business and political elites may spell discord if he wins, spooking investors.
Colombia faces an anthology of Latam challenges 25 May 2018 The Andean nation’s next leader will have to embrace fiscal discipline, make a troubled peace accord work and overcome anger at corruption among the powerful – plus oil and drugs. Neither likely winner of Sunday’s first-round election looks to have all the tools needed to cope.
Latam oil opening demands hedged bets 2 May 2018 The region's growing receptiveness to foreign investment in its energy assets could be a dream come true for oil majors. Political winds can change, though, and there is no perfect blend of hydrocarbon potential and legal certainty. Brazil and Mexico will do better than the rest.
Glencore is a weather vane for mining M&A 21 Feb 2018 The Swiss commodity group’s once-swollen net debt is below cash flow, but it will only decide later this year whether to hike dividends further. That leaves CEO Ivan Glasenberg scope to look for deals. If Glencore can’t find any decent ones, its peers probably won’t either.
Latam’s turn from populism will be put to the test 15 Dec 2017 Demagogues of right and left will test the region's recent embrace of pro-business pragmatism in 2018. Presidential elections in Mexico and Brazil will feature firebrands keen to exploit voter anger at corrupt elites and lawlessness. The center, if it holds, will emerge stronger.
Cox: Colombia’s peace dividend won’t come easy 27 Jul 2017 The end of a long war against leftist guerrillas should allow Latin America's fourth-biggest economy to attract investment, better allocate capital and grow faster. A trip into rural Colombia reveals how infrastructure neglected for 50 years complicates the challenge ahead.
Exchange Podcast: Mauricio Cárdenas 18 Jul 2017 After half a century of strife, FARC guerrillas are laying down their weapons and integrating into Colombia's political landscape. The Exchange traveled to Bogota to discuss potential dividends from peace, infrastructure investment and the economy with Colombia's finance minister.
Colombia faces peace paradox as FARC rebels disarm 30 Jun 2017 Ending five decades of civil war will lift the Andean nation's economy in the long run, but place additional burdens on tight government finances in the meantime if peace is to prosper. Encouragingly, murders are down and tourism up, but it could all still go wrong.
Colombia wises up to perils of direct democracy 16 Nov 2016 President Santos and FARC rebels tweaked a peace deal that was narrowly nixed in a Brexit-style plebiscite. The new pact looks likely to go to Congress for approval rather than another referendum, a prudent move given voters' inscrutability. The economy needs an end to war.
Shadow activist takes flyer at Colombian airline 6 Oct 2016 Paul Singer's investment firm is urging a sale of Avianca, where it isn't directly an investor. Elliott wants to protect the value of the stake it was offered as collateral for loans it extended to Avianca's controlling shareholder. The logic is clear but the method is fuzzy.
Colombia’s “no” to peace will backfire on economy 2 Oct 2016 Voters on Sunday narrowly rejected a deal with FARC rebels that aimed to end five decades of civil war. The result shreds the credibility of the president and pollsters. The desire to be tougher on the rebels proved stronger – just – than the appeal of a needed peace dividend.
Colombian peace may have a price before a dividend 25 Aug 2016 A deal to end 50 years of conflict with FARC comes at a difficult time. Oil output is shrinking and inflation proving stubborn. Tax reform before year-end should help but thousands of rebels also will now need jobs. Any financial benefit from the war's end could take some time.
Latam oil prize proves an elusive takeover target 17 Mar 2016 A $6 bln deal to buy Pacific E&P, the region’s biggest non-state-controlled crude producer, collapsed last year when a group of shareholders blocked it. Buyout shop EIG’s second attempt to gain control, through senior debt, is now sputtering. There may yet be another way, though.
Peace and fiscal virtue may clash in Colombia 9 Oct 2015 An end to the Andean state’s half-century-long war with FARC rebels may cost up to $3 bln a year. Yet income from oil, its biggest export, is likely to fall by a similar amount and the economy is slowing. It poses a dilemma for a government that’s careful with the purse strings.
Buyers hold cards in $6.4 bln Latam oil deal 26 May 2015 Investors opposed to the takeover of Pacific Rubiales have enough votes to knock the sale off course. But the dissenters would be crazy to push the button. The 34 pct premium looks fair. Without a deal, or a surge in oil prices, Pacific Rubiales’ future looks bleak.
Colombia’s economic peace dividend may be elusive 15 May 2015 Latin America’s No. 4 economy hopes for an economic boost of maybe 1 pct of GDP a year if it can reach a peace accord with leftist rebels. But as with merger deals, expected financial returns often fail to materialize. The real work only begins after signing on the dotted line.