Mexico

Brazil will get energy mostly right; Mexico won’t

28 December 2018

New regimes of opposing ideologies in Latam’s two biggest economies will wrestle with balancing 1970s-style nationalism against the need to open up to foreign and private capital to exploit their oil and gas resources. Brazil’s far-right president-elect has the better prospects.

NAFTA 2.0 signing is party for protectionism

30 November 2018

America, Canada and Mexico cheered their new, if little-changed, trilateral pact. But U.S. officials also noted that steel and aluminum tariffs remain. And the White House wants to pick which carmakers are subject to import duties. Taxing trade is in full swing.

Mexico’s revolutionaries risk spoiling the party

12 November 2018

President-elect López Obrador doesn’t take office until next month, but he and his fellow leftists have already upset markets with moves to nix an airport project and rein in bank fees. Such fumbles could help guide Brazil’s far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro as he nears power too.

The Exchange: Stephen Harper

19 October 2018

Canada’s former prime minister, in office through the financial meltdown a decade ago, is an advocate for conservative politics with a small “c.” He talked to Breakingviews about the revamped NAFTA, Donald Trump’s standoff with China and the pros and cons of the loonie.

NAFTA is dead – long live NAFTA

1 October 2018

Canada and the United States agreed to update and rename the trade pact just in time for signing by the current Mexican government. Ottawa will open its dairy market and regional auto content will be increased. Supporters of the trilateral deal can breathe a sigh of relief.

Latam can exorcise returning decades-old demons

12 September 2018

Argentina’s peso crisis and the stabbing of a far-right candidate in Brazil echo the region’s past economic instability and political violence. Mexico’s oil industry, too, may revisit the 1970s; Venezuela is in a totalitarian time warp. But history doesn’t have to repeat.

Delaying NAFTA deal is actually a win-win-win

31 August 2018

Canada and the United States will keep talking despite missing a deadline to resolve trade talks. Negotiators will need to move quickly to avoid the risk of fresh demands from the next Mexican government. But a NAFTA that all sides can sell is more important.

NAFTA survival rests on Ottawa showmanship

29 August 2018

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is talking up how Mexico’s U.S. “concessions” help Canada. Now she needs a deal, not least on the country’s punitive dairy tariffs, that keeps both the U.S. president and her anti-Trump fellow citizens happy. That’ll require some smooth talking.

U.S.-Mexico deal is only start of tough NAFTA road

27 August 2018

The neighbors agreed to boost regional auto content for tariff-free trade. Now Ottawa will rejoin the talks. Hurdles like dispute panels remain, and Trump’s fresh outburst at Canada will make it hard to close the pact this week. Approval by Congress also isn’t a slam dunk.

Latam’s market-friendly shift is at a parlous pass

27 August 2018

Argentina’s faltering growth imperils President Macri’s reforms. Mexico has delayed oil liberalization. Brazil’s main pro-business presidential candidate looks weak. Losing fiscal nous and foreign investment in the region’s biggest economies would hit business and the poor alike.

Leaving Canada out in the cold chills NAFTA deal

2 August 2018

The White House is in talks with Mexico, but that’s not the same as progress on the trilateral trade pact. While U.S. negotiators and southern counterparts are near resolving rules on auto content, Washington and Ottawa remain far apart. Hope for a speedy resolution is misplaced.

Messianic AMLO may give Mexico what it least needs

29 June 2018

Presidential front-runner López Obrador has pledged to root out corruption and dampen drug violence while boosting the economy and lifting up the poor. That may win him Sunday’s election, but such goals require strong institutions and fiscal nous. His rise may bring the opposite.

Guest view: Beware emerging market storm clouds

22 June 2018

A new period of mounting risks and uncertainties looms on the horizon for developing economies like Turkey, Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico, argues former Citibank executive William Rhodes. Rising price volatility and pressures on a range of currencies are merely the warning signs.

Review: The other side of Trumpismo

15 June 2018

Mexico and the U.S. share complex, ever-deeper ties that contradict Donald Trump’s hostile rhetoric, Andrew Selee writes in “Vanishing Frontiers.” Bicultural businesses, movies and even co-hosting soccer’s 2026 World Cup are better signposts to the future than nationalist rants.

Trump trade spleen makes foreign firms great again

11 June 2018

A fragile G7 detente imploded over his steel tariffs and an adviser's dig that there’s a “special place in hell” for Canada’s Trudeau. Because retaliation pushes up costs, the levies hurt U.S. firms more than they help. It’s rivals like Chinese ag firm COFCO that will profit.

HSBC’s new CEO strives for profitable banality

11 June 2018

John Flint’s plan to lift return on tangible equity above 11 pct, while investing up to $17 bln in technology and China, is hardly radical. Yet aiming for more than modest revenue growth could be reckless. It should be enough to maintain the bank’s premium to its European peers.

Election shake-ups will make NAFTA more elusive

5 June 2018

Doug Ford, a Canada-first candidate, has a shot at becoming the next premier of Ontario – the province that will be hardest hit by U.S. steel tariffs. Voters also go to the polls this year in Mexico and the U.S. New political faces will make sealing a trade deal even harder.

EU has political trump card in trade conflict

31 May 2018

The United States is imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on Germany and others. Europe has threatened levies against Harley motorcycles and Kentucky bourbon, among other goods. That hits Republican leaders’ bases as the party faces elections in November. It’s a smart tactic.

Mexico may elect damp squib more than firebrand

30 May 2018

Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador leads polls for July 1 presidential elections. AMLO, as he’s known, pledges infrastructure and social spending funded by ending corruption and waste, without higher taxes or debt. It won’t add up. For good or ill, he’ll underperform.

Latam oil opening demands hedged bets

2 May 2018

The region's growing receptiveness to foreign investment in its energy assets could be a dream come true for oil majors. Political winds can change, though, and there is no perfect blend of hydrocarbon potential and legal certainty. Brazil and Mexico will do better than the rest.