Mexico

Corona Capital: Pemex, Bond liquidity

20 April 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Pemex becomes world’s chunkiest fallen angel, and bond liquidity gets a needed boost.

Corona Capital: Oil cheerleading, Mortgaging Ford

13 April 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: U.S. and Saudi energy ministers agree on pumping up oil, Ford may use an old trick to raise new capital.

Mexico cans Corona plant in unaffordable sideshow

24 March 2020

The country’s president held a referendum that nixed Constellation Brands’ massive brewery, as the nation faces a manufacturing pullback, rock-bottom oil prices, and a weak peso. Rigid nationalist, anti-corporate politics can be costly in normal times – let alone in a crisis.

Viewsroom: U.S. politicians call a truce for trade

12 December 2019

House democrats are backing Trump’s deal with Canada and Mexico even as they charge the president with impeachment. A looming deadline heaping more tariffs on Chinese imports could be kicked down the road, too. The chances of bipartisan support elsewhere, though, are slim.

NAFTA 2.0 deal is only opening act for China trade

10 December 2019

The White House deserves credit for winning over U.S. Democrats on a revised pact with Canada and Mexico. But investors are waiting for the headliner: an agreement with the People’s Republic as new tariffs loom. Rising tensions with Europe add to the unfolding drama.

Mexico slowdown puts president in fiscal bind

25 November 2019

Lopez Obrador wants to increase welfare spending without sacrificing budget targets. That’s now unlikely after a recent recession and probable slow growth in 2020. But avoiding a budget deficit could put him at odds with the populism he espouses, and which brought him to power.

Pemex debt riddle stumps Mexican president

15 October 2019

The IMF has panned the isolationist approach AMLO, as he's known, is taking. His budget relies on the state oil giant producing cash, but Pemex needs all the pesos and dollars it can get to boost production and reduce $102 bln of debt. Without private investment, it can't add up.

Mexico truce is sad episode in trade reality show

10 June 2019

U.S. President Trump scrapped planned import taxes after Mexico pledged more action on migrant crossings – something it had already offered to do. It reinforces the illusion that levies are a potent way to tackle non-trade issues, and sets the scene for more unproductive drama.

Canada is caught in America’s trade-war crossfire

5 June 2019

President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico puts at risk the new version of the three-way NAFTA trade deal. Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO at America’s request upset China. And its uranium exports may now face levies, too. Ottawa can’t catch a break.

Mexico tariffs may lead to more bills for America

4 June 2019

The southern neighbor hopes to avoid import taxes by doing more to stop migrant crossings. But a weak economy and lower oil revenue have already forced Mexico to cut its 2019 budget. President Donald Trump may need to stump up even more aid to help the country meet his demands.

Santander’s $2.9 bln Mexico bid is easy to refuse

12 April 2019

The Spanish lender wants to swap the 25 pct of its Latin American unit it does not own for shares in the group. Despite a 14 pct premium, the offer is a lower multiple of book value than when Santander listed it in 2012. Given robust profitability, Mexican investors can hold out.

Carlos Slim has upper hand in Spain property fight

14 March 2019

Hedge fund Polygon reckons Realia, controlled by the Mexican tycoon, uses lowball land valuations and raised capital it doesn’t need. The 800 mln euro company’s response is unconvincing. Yet unless regulators force it to change, Slim could increase his stake at a lowball price.

Brazil will get energy mostly right; Mexico won’t

28 December 2018

New regimes of opposing ideologies in Latam’s two biggest economies will wrestle with balancing 1970s-style nationalism against the need to open up to foreign and private capital to exploit their oil and gas resources. Brazil’s far-right president-elect has the better prospects.

NAFTA 2.0 signing is party for protectionism

30 November 2018

America, Canada and Mexico cheered their new, if little-changed, trilateral pact. But U.S. officials also noted that steel and aluminum tariffs remain. And the White House wants to pick which carmakers are subject to import duties. Taxing trade is in full swing.

Mexico’s revolutionaries risk spoiling the party

12 November 2018

President-elect López Obrador doesn’t take office until next month, but he and his fellow leftists have already upset markets with moves to nix an airport project and rein in bank fees. Such fumbles could help guide Brazil’s far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro as he nears power too.

The Exchange: Stephen Harper

19 October 2018

Canada’s former prime minister, in office through the financial meltdown a decade ago, is an advocate for conservative politics with a small “c.” He talked to Breakingviews about the revamped NAFTA, Donald Trump’s standoff with China and the pros and cons of the loonie.

NAFTA is dead – long live NAFTA

1 October 2018

Canada and the United States agreed to update and rename the trade pact just in time for signing by the current Mexican government. Ottawa will open its dairy market and regional auto content will be increased. Supporters of the trilateral deal can breathe a sigh of relief.

Latam can exorcise returning decades-old demons

12 September 2018

Argentina’s peso crisis and the stabbing of a far-right candidate in Brazil echo the region’s past economic instability and political violence. Mexico’s oil industry, too, may revisit the 1970s; Venezuela is in a totalitarian time warp. But history doesn’t have to repeat.

Delaying NAFTA deal is actually a win-win-win

31 August 2018

Canada and the United States will keep talking despite missing a deadline to resolve trade talks. Negotiators will need to move quickly to avoid the risk of fresh demands from the next Mexican government. But a NAFTA that all sides can sell is more important.

NAFTA survival rests on Ottawa showmanship

29 August 2018

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is talking up how Mexico’s U.S. “concessions” help Canada. Now she needs a deal, not least on the country’s punitive dairy tariffs, that keeps both the U.S. president and her anti-Trump fellow citizens happy. That’ll require some smooth talking.