Mexico

NAFTA is dead – long live NAFTA

1 October 2018

Canada and the United States agreed to update and rename the trade pact just in time for signing by the current Mexican government. Ottawa will open its dairy market and regional auto content will be increased. Supporters of the trilateral deal can breathe a sigh of relief.

Latam can exorcise returning decades-old demons

12 September 2018

Argentina’s peso crisis and the stabbing of a far-right candidate in Brazil echo the region’s past economic instability and political violence. Mexico’s oil industry, too, may revisit the 1970s; Venezuela is in a totalitarian time warp. But history doesn’t have to repeat.

Delaying NAFTA deal is actually a win-win-win

31 August 2018

Canada and the United States will keep talking despite missing a deadline to resolve trade talks. Negotiators will need to move quickly to avoid the risk of fresh demands from the next Mexican government. But a NAFTA that all sides can sell is more important.

NAFTA survival rests on Ottawa showmanship

29 August 2018

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is talking up how Mexico’s U.S. “concessions” help Canada. Now she needs a deal, not least on the country’s punitive dairy tariffs, that keeps both the U.S. president and her anti-Trump fellow citizens happy. That’ll require some smooth talking.

U.S.-Mexico deal is only start of tough NAFTA road

27 August 2018

The neighbors agreed to boost regional auto content for tariff-free trade. Now Ottawa will rejoin the talks. Hurdles like dispute panels remain, and Trump’s fresh outburst at Canada will make it hard to close the pact this week. Approval by Congress also isn’t a slam dunk.

Latam’s market-friendly shift is at a parlous pass

27 August 2018

Argentina’s faltering growth imperils President Macri’s reforms. Mexico has delayed oil liberalization. Brazil’s main pro-business presidential candidate looks weak. Losing fiscal nous and foreign investment in the region’s biggest economies would hit business and the poor alike.

Leaving Canada out in the cold chills NAFTA deal

2 August 2018

The White House is in talks with Mexico, but that’s not the same as progress on the trilateral trade pact. While U.S. negotiators and southern counterparts are near resolving rules on auto content, Washington and Ottawa remain far apart. Hope for a speedy resolution is misplaced.

Messianic AMLO may give Mexico what it least needs

29 June 2018

Presidential front-runner López Obrador has pledged to root out corruption and dampen drug violence while boosting the economy and lifting up the poor. That may win him Sunday’s election, but such goals require strong institutions and fiscal nous. His rise may bring the opposite.

Guest view: Beware emerging market storm clouds

22 June 2018

A new period of mounting risks and uncertainties looms on the horizon for developing economies like Turkey, Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico, argues former Citibank executive William Rhodes. Rising price volatility and pressures on a range of currencies are merely the warning signs.

Review: The other side of Trumpismo

15 June 2018

Mexico and the U.S. share complex, ever-deeper ties that contradict Donald Trump’s hostile rhetoric, Andrew Selee writes in “Vanishing Frontiers.” Bicultural businesses, movies and even co-hosting soccer’s 2026 World Cup are better signposts to the future than nationalist rants.

Trump trade spleen makes foreign firms great again

11 June 2018

A fragile G7 detente imploded over his steel tariffs and an adviser's dig that there’s a “special place in hell” for Canada’s Trudeau. Because retaliation pushes up costs, the levies hurt U.S. firms more than they help. It’s rivals like Chinese ag firm COFCO that will profit.

HSBC’s new CEO strives for profitable banality

11 June 2018

John Flint’s plan to lift return on tangible equity above 11 pct, while investing up to $17 bln in technology and China, is hardly radical. Yet aiming for more than modest revenue growth could be reckless. It should be enough to maintain the bank’s premium to its European peers.

Election shake-ups will make NAFTA more elusive

5 June 2018

Doug Ford, a Canada-first candidate, has a shot at becoming the next premier of Ontario – the province that will be hardest hit by U.S. steel tariffs. Voters also go to the polls this year in Mexico and the U.S. New political faces will make sealing a trade deal even harder.

EU has political trump card in trade conflict

31 May 2018

The United States is imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on Germany and others. Europe has threatened levies against Harley motorcycles and Kentucky bourbon, among other goods. That hits Republican leaders’ bases as the party faces elections in November. It’s a smart tactic.

Mexico may elect damp squib more than firebrand

30 May 2018

Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador leads polls for July 1 presidential elections. AMLO, as he’s known, pledges infrastructure and social spending funded by ending corruption and waste, without higher taxes or debt. It won’t add up. For good or ill, he’ll underperform.

Latam oil opening demands hedged bets

2 May 2018

The region's growing receptiveness to foreign investment in its energy assets could be a dream come true for oil majors. Political winds can change, though, and there is no perfect blend of hydrocarbon potential and legal certainty. Brazil and Mexico will do better than the rest.

BP’s marathon repair job gets sprint finish

1 May 2018

The UK oil major’s first-quarter results beat expectations. Costs from the Gulf of Mexico spill mean it needs higher oil prices than peers to generate free cash flow. But a mix of cost discipline on new projects and higher crude values mean BP should be able to keep gushing cash.

Heineken’s number two status brings marginal costs

12 February 2018

The Dutch brewer is one of the few global groups still increasing beer volumes. However, acquisitions will weigh on operating margins in 2018. Heineken needs to invest in its new Brazilian brands to take on market leader AB Inbev. That limits the scope for boosting profitability.

Cox: Sliding stocks don’t surprise our readers

5 February 2018

From Mumbai to Milan, we polled participants at our Predictions 2018 summits. Even before last week's rout, most thought investors are too exuberant, bitcoin is a bubble and Donald Trump is doing poorly. More surprising were regional takes on NAFTA, Italian elections and Brexit.

Auto industry exposes NAFTA’s blind spot

29 January 2018

Canadian negotiators have pointed out that the North American treaty doesn’t capture the value of high-tech equipment in autos, Reuters reported. A rule change to reflect tech advances is due. Complex supply chains call for new ways of measuring trade flows.