Economists: try fewer forecasts, more planning 11 Nov 2016 The great recession exposed many shortcomings in the dismal science. Economists are exploring new strands of thinking - and reviving old, discarded ones. One good outcome would be to worry less about predicting the future, and spend more time preparing for what might go wrong.
Trump may embody his own isolationist policy 9 Nov 2016 The reality-TV star clinched an unlikely White House victory. In winning over a majority of the electorate, he alienated nearly everyone in a position of power. That means checks and balances on his presidency could mark a huge test for the American experiment and economy.
American institutions are biggest election loser 9 Nov 2016 The modern era's most rancorous campaign damaged the legitimacy of several pillars of democracy and free markets. Congress was already at a nadir. Fold in the idea of a rigged system, where the FBI and free press are politically biased, and governing will be nearly impossible.
Risk markets bear brunt of Trump volatility 9 Nov 2016 Mexico's peso, a barometer of sentiment throughout the White House race, plunged 11 pct to a record low against the dollar, which also fell. Stocks in Asia sagged along with U.S. index futures. Treasuries and gold rose. The next president's calling card is uncertainty.
Modi puts paper money where mouth is on corruption 9 Nov 2016 The Indian prime minister is boldly cancelling 86 pct of banknotes by value. That will force people to open bank accounts and boost tax revenue. It won't stop illicit flows, but tough new laws and technology advances mean the demonetisation effort could make a positive mark.
China sacrifices finance chief on altar of growth 8 Nov 2016 President Xi Jinping has abruptly replaced Finance Minister Lou Jiwei. The reshuffle removes a powerful advocate for reform and signals growth at any cost is a priority. The longer China delays dealing with its debt problem, the more painful the eventual reckoning will be.
Too much U.S. good news is bad for Chinese yuan 8 Nov 2016 A stronger American economy is putting pressure on China's sliding currency. Markets have priced in one rate hike by the Federal Reserve, but if positive surprises prompt more increases, it would undermine China's gradual depreciation strategy and provoke more capital controls.
Fat donkey-tail risk lurks in U.S. elections 7 Nov 2016 Investors are pricing in Hillary Clinton as the next president and Republicans hanging onto control of at least one congressional chamber. A Donald Trump win would shock and scare Mr. Market. There's also a small chance of a Democratic sweep, a less-discussed bearish outcome.
Shared to-do list no matter who nabs White House 7 Nov 2016 U.S. political rancor reached a depressing height in the 2016 campaign. But there is some bipartisan harmony on the need for a corporate-tax overhaul, infrastructure spending boost and immigration reform. Amid a dispiriting race, there's a sliver of hope for actual governance.
Cox: Trump would – briefly – make America great 7 Nov 2016 U.S. stocks are bound to freak out, Brexit-style, if the reality-TV star wins the White House. Yet the instability also would send investors in search of less risky assets. Beyond cash, those are mostly dollar-denominated. Longer-term, though, a President Trump is another story.
A divided town in a divided Britain 7 Nov 2016 Life is getting better, by many measures, in Hull. Yet the northern British city voted overwhelmingly to leave Europe, and its citizens aren’t sorry they did. Brexit is often seen as a conflict between progress and disenfranchisement, but it isn’t. One town can have both.
U.S. employers deliver an early Christmas gift 4 Nov 2016 They added a modest 161,000 new jobs last month. Wage gains accelerated, however, bringing the annual increase to 2.8 pct, the biggest since 2009. That could help lift consumer spending, an important engine of economic growth, heading into the holiday shopping season.
Brexit divergence puts Bank of England in a bind 3 Nov 2016 The pound has fallen as investors brace for the economic pain of Britain’s exit from the EU. Meanwhile consumers are behaving as if nothing has changed. Rising prices will squeeze spending, leaving BoE Governor Mark Carney trapped between slower growth and higher inflation.
European bank surprises are not all unpleasant 3 Nov 2016 Deutsche Bank's vulnerability to a big U.S. fine led onlookers to tar EU peers with the same brush. As it happens, SocGen, ING and BNP all beat third-quarter expectations, and profitability pressure may have eased somewhat. The outlook is still bleak – just not uniformly so.
Scandal in Seoul masks bigger economic problems 3 Nov 2016 A furore over a quirky confidante is buffeting South Korean President Park Geun-hye. The regularity of such crises attests to poor governance. But that's only part of a larger challenge: avoiding Japan-style stagnation despite heavy debts, weak exports and an ageing population.
MPS’ best bet is faulty Plan A 1 Nov 2016 The troubled Italian lender rebuffed a rescue plan from banker Corrado Passera, who says the board obstructed his efforts. With the clock ticking, MPS had good reason to stick with its current rescue plan. Yet Passera’s criticisms are valid.
Bank of Japan sits back for Clinton-Trump ride 1 Nov 2016 The central bank kept policy unchanged, even as it trimmed inflation forecasts. Adding extra stimulus just one meeting after introducing a new, yield-focused framework would look panicky. The BOJ also needs to keep something in reserve for upsets like a U.S. election shock.
The Exchange: Economic Dream Team Machine 31 Oct 2016 With the U.S. presidential election entering its final days, the jockeying for prime economic policy roles has begun in earnest. Who will run the Department of Treasury? Who will be the next Commerce Secretary? Politico's Ben White and Breakingviews' Gina Chon weigh in.
Hadas: The left behind can’t blame globalisation 31 Oct 2016 Has the rise of cheap labour in poor countries harmed unskilled workers in rich lands? Sure, but it’s a new twist of an old story - technological unemployment. Even though the problems are fairly easy to solve, governments continue to fail many of the latest losers.
U.S. economy casts a vote for free trade 28 Oct 2016 The initial estimate of third-quarter GDP indicates 2.9 pct growth, the fastest rate in two years. Exports helped offset mediocre consumer spending. Both presidential candidates have vilified trade to varying degrees. This sort of expansion illustrates the political upside.