Virus likely to be a tale of three phases 18 Mar 2020 History and science suggest a serious hit – to the economy and health – lasting months, and varying depending on testing and behavioral changes. Flare-ups and uncertainty will continue until a vaccine is widespread in a year or more. After that, Covid-19 may just be another flu.
EU virus move beggars neighbours a few doors down 16 Mar 2020 Brussels is urging member states to keep borders open with each other for healthcare supplies, following fears of national hoarding. It’s less worried about what happens beyond its bloc. That’s fine, but the stance could have consequences when the crisis subsides.
Cheap oil will fund quasi-handouts for Indians 13 Mar 2020 A ban on foreign tourists is poised to hurt an economy already reeling from financial blowups. Luckily, cash-strapped New Delhi has a new stimulus option: passing lower crude prices on to consumers. That would be more effective than tax cuts, and relieve rising household debt.
Donald Trump is rising risk factor in virus battle 11 Mar 2020 The U.S. president’s address to the nation sparked more market panic. A $50 bln pledge for small businesses hit by Covid-19 is good, but his speech lacked public-health remedies, was full of mixed messages and focused on a Europe travel ban. He’s missing both diagnosis and cure.
Virus adds edge to Democratic healthcare debate 11 Mar 2020 The party’s top two presidential candidates have very different ideas for overhauling the U.S medical system. Bernie Sanders’ national health service plan would cost some $12 trln more than Joe Biden’s goal to augment what’s already in place. Covid-19 puts the issue center stage.
Virus pain may leave CoCos with lasting infection 10 Mar 2020 Monday’s selloff was the worst ever for bank contingent convertible bonds. More could lie ahead if losses caused by the coronavirus and oil collapse allow lenders to stop paying coupons. The more banks that trigger hybrids, the less they will worry about spooking bond markets.
Italy’s virus mitigation comes at a hefty price 9 Mar 2020 Rome has quarantined 16 mln people to beat Covid-19. Such harsh steps may slow contagion and relieve a strained health service. The risk is that the economy suffers lasting damage before the epidemic is bested. Other developed countries will inevitably confront the same dilemma.
Coronavirus infects air over global markets 9 Mar 2020 Monday’s plunge in oil prices and signs that Western nations may act drastically to slow the virus reversed a Chinese stock rally; some major Asian indexes fell 6%. Any benefits of cheaper energy are overshadowed by fear of the unknown in export dependent East Asia and beyond.
Pandemics give rich selfish reason to aid the poor 6 Mar 2020 Developing countries are often worst hit and they undercut the containment efforts of wealthier ones. The spreading coronavirus knocks the case for globalisation but it promotes the need for cooperation on health. One idea to fund such assistance is a travel-linked pandemic tax.
Alibaba’s health shift prescribes market medicine 6 Mar 2020 The e-commerce group is injecting assets into a healthcare subsidiary, now worth a punchy $25 bln. It’s a bet that the coronavirus will accelerate reforms, like opening China’s $370 bln drug industry to web retailers. Alibaba’s scale could deliver a potent treatment to investors.
Virus stimulus strains bloated U.S. balance sheet 5 Mar 2020 Congress approved an $8 bln plan to mitigate a potential outbreak. It’s a rounding error next to the hundreds of billions that may be needed to stem economic damage. Tax cuts and a spending jump had already pushed the deficit to $1 trln, reducing fiscal room to deal with crises.
Hadas: Good bureaucracy is ultimate virus slayer 4 Mar 2020 Honest and competent administrators make complex societies tick. In a public health crisis, they have to be global, transparent, flexible and sometimes harsh. China and the United States flubbed the coronavirus challenge in their own ways. Sadly, it’s too late for big changes.
Tariff-infected medical supply chains get sicker 3 Mar 2020 U.S. stocks of face masks, gloves and gowns were already under tariff pressure, which cut into just-in-time inventories. Shortages worsen as fears of a virus outbreak grow. Trump wants to inoculate against globalization. When it comes to medical equipment, he may have a case.
Thermo Fisher gives booster shot to M&A spirits 3 Mar 2020 The $122 bln U.S. healthcare services firm is buying Qiagen for $11.5 bln. CEO Marc Casper is paying a rich price for the German diagnostics group, at a time when the coronavirus outbreak is crushing investor confidence. The timing suggests bullish spirits still linger.
Guest view: Virus may give Chinese banks M&A bug 3 Mar 2020 The outbreak is infecting the financial system. Lenders must provide new loans, roll over existing ones and cut rates. More small institutions might founder. The crisis, argues author Fraser Howie, creates an opening for consolidation, so long as bailouts have strings attached.
Gilead’s $4.9 bln deal shows regular death goes on 2 Mar 2020 The $88 bln biotech company has the best antiviral bet against coronavirus; it’s also now buying cancer startup Forty Seven. Investors are focused on the former today, but the purchase at a hefty premium is a reminder that the fight against the grim reaper is a long-term affair.
Virus could give dealmakers a new big MAC attack 2 Mar 2020 Morgan Stanley’s acquisition of E*Trade carves out Covid-19 from any “material adverse” change. Other buyers and sellers were too late, making the clauses ripe for review. They’re hard to trigger, but Chinese targets are vulnerable. More than $80 bln of M&A hangs in the balance.
NMC mess implies London needs fiercer watchdogs 27 Feb 2020 The Gulf hospital operator fired its CEO after revealing undisclosed debts. Its poor governance and disclosure sit awkwardly with the UK’s aim to be the world’s top venue for foreign companies and capital. Keeping that reputation requires tougher penalties for bad behaviour.
Breakdown: Coronavirus goes global 27 Feb 2020 China’s draconian efforts have slowed the new disease, but it’s now spreading worldwide. Competent and open government is the best defense against hospitals and society being overwhelmed. Nations may have to deal with recurring outbreaks. Breakingviews explains what to expect.
Supply chain “tiger traps” demand better signposts 27 Feb 2020 The centuries-old business of lending to companies’ suppliers has become a 2.8 trln euro playground for financial and technological innovation. Tools that help firms to better use capital can flatter debt levels and exacerbate a liquidity crunch. Investors need more transparency.