Shareholder votes will be a feast for legal eagles 4 Jan 2013 Restrained from suing over securities fraud, lawyers are starting to prey on dodgy disclosure in corporate elections. Say-on-pay votes are popular, but anything needing investor approval is fair game. Starved of other business, attorneys’ hunger for these suits can only grow.
Wall St could learn a thing or two from Detroit 3 Jan 2013 Both needed government aid in 2008. But it is the automakers that have restructured and become decently profitable in straitened times. Detroit’s Big Three still have work to do, but they have responded better. Motown’s chiefs can more easily justify big pay days too.
U.S. dollar may smile at end of 2013 ugly contest 3 Jan 2013 None of the leading currency contestants is pretty. Central banks across the globe seem willing to debase money with the printing press. The euro’s nerves have improved but the recession-hit zone is fragile. The yen wants to lose. The dollar and the pound may eventually come off best.
Lehman could be 2013’s Humpty Dumpty 2 Jan 2013 Nomura has struggled with the defunct firm’s European and Asian operations. Barclays may offload the U.S. arm. So why not stitch Lehman back together? Plenty of sidelined Wall Street execs could run it. But funding looks difficult. It’s Wall Street’s problem in a nutshell.
Germans have peculiar love-hate affair with Merkel 2 Jan 2013 The chancellor is the nation’s most popular politician, although voters don’t like her policies. How does she manage? She benefits from an opaque communications strategy, and the lack of a coherent alternative. Pro-EU leaders should pray that this Merkel bubble doesn’t burst.
India braces for last year of political stability 2 Jan 2013 A 13-year period in which one of the two main national parties led a stable coalition in New Delhi will come to an end in 2013. A third-front alliance of opportunistic regional parties will rise to power. Their populism will wreck public finances and delay an investment revival.
Banks will stop giving stuff away this year 2 Jan 2013 Lenders have underpriced everything from corporate loans to current accounts in an effort to suck in business. But tougher regulators and shrinking revenue streams make such cross-subsidies harder to justify. An overhaul of the industry’s approach to pricing is overdue.
Latam can rely on masses for next phase of growth 31 Dec 2012 A few key people like the world’s richest man and showy political leaders have epitomized the region for years by spearheading the commodity-led, export economies. In 2013, a burgeoning middle class, helped by low interest rates, will make a mark powering Latin America’s future.
Calamity likely to be postponed again in 2013 31 Dec 2012 The financial crisis has been frustrating for doom-mongers. Sure, debts are still high and the financial system’s reconstruction is slow. But growth has been no worse than tepid and China refuses to collapse. Even if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff, the end is not yet nigh.
UK’s chopping Chancellor may face the chop 31 Dec 2012 As the UK economy wobbles, George Osborne’s austerity policies are under fire. It’s unfair: the essential surgery will help revitalisation. But as 2013 progresses the Chancellor of the Exchequer may become more of an electoral liability. He could find himself axed.
Predictions are rubbish 31 Dec 2012 Forecasts for 2013 are abundant. That’s fine. But trouble comes if you chose to believe the soothsaying. Predictions are usually wild guesses or extrapolations of trends of the past. Even when they are accurate they are all-but impossible to interpret.
Draft obit for 2020: 2-and-20 fee structures 28 Dec 2012 The archetypal hedge fund fee deal survived the 2008 crunch and the euro zone meltdown, but not the industry’s growth. Asset gathering, tight controls and cautious bets by a new generation of fund bosses brought a decade of low returns. Fee gravity was irresistible in the end.
Mario Draghi’s three challenges 28 Dec 2012 2012 was the year of the Dragon. Mario Draghi’s promise to buy bonds prevented a calamitous loss of confidence and brought stability to the zone. Next year he will have to deliver on that promise, and more besides.
Gazprom’s travails encapsulate Russia’s problems 28 Dec 2012 For decades, Gazprom’s grip on EU gas supplies made it a key lever of Russian might. But years of mismanagement have taken their toll. What’s more, gas isn’t what it used to be. The new torch-bearing company may be Rosneft. But Russia remains a badly-managed resource economy.
Prepare for a moody, grungy and defiant year 28 Dec 2012 The 21st century becomes a teenager in 2013. It will talk to you in barely decipherable grunts. It will say you don’t understand. It will laze around in bed. It will complain, and it will pester you endlessly about iPhones.
Bank CEO survivors’ club may shrink again in 2013 27 Dec 2012 Of the major bank chiefs who had their jobs before the crisis, three remain: Goldman’s Lloyd Blankfein, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Brady Dougan at Credit Suisse. Each has had setbacks. But the two U.S. bank heads appear to have shrugged them off. Dougan looks more vulnerable.
Penguin in bondage hides real risks in media M&A 27 Dec 2012 Three tie-ups from 2012 will alter media in 2013: Penguin-Random House, Universal-EMI and Disney-Lucasfilm. In books and music, the business case for consolidation is clear. Wags will giggle about “50 Shades of Penguin”, too. But the real cultural impact may be less benign.
Weibo should tap the financial network in 2013 27 Dec 2012 China’s rambunctious social media site is valued by investors at $700 million, based on owner Sina’s share price. Weibo has two hard-to-copy assets - its “social graph” and political usefulness. If it can monetise them, Weibo might be worth many times that.
Mexico may teach U.S. a lesson on good government 26 Dec 2012 The country needs fiscal and energy sector reform. Its rival political parties have little history of working together, so that might sound hard. But they look set to reach a compromise with far less rancor than their counterparts north of the border.
Fading power of oil autocrats will aid growth 24 Dec 2012 Democracies are starting to outclass countries like Iran, Venezuela and Russia in energy production. That should reduce the economic and political influence of such authoritarian states. The West’s booming output should steady fuel prices, a rare boon for the global economy.