Renault-Nissan: Only merging makes financial sense 19 Dec 2018 The French and Japanese carmakers' lopsided stakes in each other are a poor use of capital. A full-blown marriage could boost their value by about 30 percent. That’s less likely after Carlos Ghosn’s ouster as Nissan chairman; the auto alliance is driving in the wrong direction.
Private equity returns will drop a digit 19 Dec 2018 Buyouts have tended to target – and achieve – an annualized harvest of at least 15 percent. It’s hard to see recent deals, with high valuations and creative treatment of earnings, matching that. Assume a modest drop in the market and mild slowdown, and 15 looks more like five.
GSK takes M&A steroids for strategic ailment 19 Dec 2018 The UK drugmaker will mesh its consumer health unit with Pfizer’s, gear it up and spin it off. That should leave more firepower for GSK’s weaker pharmaceutical division. Both businesses should be better off, if boss Emma Walmsley can invest wisely. That’s still to be seen.
Shinzo Abe will strike accord with Donald Trump 19 Dec 2018 With some 5 mln autoworkers to protect from tariff pain, Japan’s prime minister will have little choice but to sign a bilateral U.S. trade deal. Expect the new NAFTA’s anti-China clause to feature. Seeking warmer relations with Tokyo, Beijing is apt to look the other way.
Mnuchin pins market volatility on wrong president 18 Dec 2018 The Treasury secretary partly blames the Obama-era Volcker Rule for big swings in stocks. But prices aren’t as choppy as 2009, before the prop-trading ban was adopted. And the rule barely affected equities trading. It’s the policies of Mnuchin’s volatile boss fanning the flames.
The 2019 stock market reversal: how it happened 18 Dec 2018 Few people would have disagreed at the beginning of the year that the nine-year-long bull market was reaching its end phase. That didn’t diminish the shock when stocks began to plunge in earnest. Breakingviews lays out a fictional account of how the good times came to an end.
Goldman Sachs will spend 2019 in velvet handcuffs 18 Dec 2018 New boss David Solomon starts the year with a mission to grow, lots of ambition and a crosstown rival that has steadily upped its game. A big deal – say, buying an asset manager – could help Solomon vault ahead of Morgan Stanley. That’s if the 1MDB scandal doesn’t bind his hands.
Boeing foots the bill for competitive misstep 17 Dec 2018 The aerospace giant lifted its offer for control of Embraer’s regional-jet business to $4.2 bln. It’s not the greatest deal – rival Airbus got Canada’s Bombardier for a song after Boeing’s aggressive trade tactics backfired. But it’s better to pay up than leave a flank exposed.
Facebook might be the JPMorgan of the tech world 17 Dec 2018 Mark Zuckerberg’s social network faces more Washington pain in 2019. But tougher internet regulation could increase the burden on rivals, as Dodd-Frank financial rules did to small lenders. Facebook may emerge stronger, like Jamie Dimon’s bank after its time in the hot seat.
Wall Street could use remedial lectures on culture 17 Dec 2018 The New York Fed’s push to improve industry behavior deserves top watchdog billing. Goldman’s 1MDB mess is only one reminder the message hasn’t totally sunk in. Slower economic growth in 2019 could expose more lapses. It’s a good time for boss John Williams to badger his charges.
Canada faces off against vampire squid to south 17 Dec 2018 U.S. tax cuts and protectionism are going to suck the life out of the Canadian economy. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has two options: join the fiscal race to the bottom, or address the reasons Canada was already falling behind its neighbor. Looming elections add to the urgency.
The Exchange: Gary Shteyngart 17 Dec 2018 To create the hedge fund manager character Barry Cohen – the protagonist in his latest novel “Lake Success” – Shteyngart spent lots of time with real-life financiers, from quants to activists. He discusses what he learned about Wall Street and the money business with Rob Cox.
Hitachi buys live wire in ABB power deal 17 Dec 2018 The Japanese conglomerate is paying a handsome $11 bln valuation for the lacklustre power grid unit of its Swiss rival. Activists there will be placated by the proceeds and a restructuring. Hitachi becomes an industry giant but finding other benefits, like synergies, will be tricky.
SoftBank writedown will cloud Son’s way forward 17 Dec 2018 The group and its $97 bln Vision Fund paid toppy prices for the likes of ARM and WeWork. With tech valuations and growth under pressure, CEO Masayoshi Son may have to mark down some valuations in 2019. Financial backers and fund staff could struggle to maintain the momentum.
J&J’s talc crisis will linger for years 14 Dec 2018 Investors erased $40 bln of market value after Reuters revealed the U.S. company knew for decades its baby powder was sometimes tainted by asbestos. Based on past consumer scandals, the real hit could be smaller but long-lasting. Lawsuits and brand damage don’t easily dissipate.
German carmakers could show Trump art of the deal 14 Dec 2018 VW, Daimler and BMW are vulnerable to 25 pct auto tariffs threatened by the U.S. president, who’s also railing against GM for idling plants. The Germans could win some goodwill by taking up some of their American rivals’ spare capacity. That’s easier done for some than others.
Review: The attack of the killer fridges has begun 14 Dec 2018 The world is ever more connected via the internet, from cars and power grids to home appliances and toys. That means ever more things are dangerously hackable, security expert Bruce Schneier writes in “Click Here to Kill Everybody.” His title isn’t as hyperbolic as it may sound.
Trump can get what he wants from Saudi in 2019 14 Dec 2018 As the year closes, oil prices have fallen to well below highs that riled the U.S. president. The risk is OPEC supply cuts and sanctions on Iran will send them back up. Yet scope to influence the kingdom on output – as well as its behaviour in the region - gives him a hedge.
Japan Post tries overseas diversification at home 13 Dec 2018 It might buy a stake in $33 bln U.S. insurer Aflac, which does business mostly in Japan. Financial conglomerates that mix banking and insurance have a patchy record; so does Japan Post when it comes to overseas acquisitions. At least this would be a watered-down version of both.
Investors could use a bit more skepticism on trade 13 Dec 2018 Stocks have rallied after signs Beijing is giving ground on some U.S. demands, including cutting tariffs and opening markets. Yet America's hawks won’t be wooed by skin-deep changes and tensions extend broadly, including to Chinese hacking. Any truce could easily be tripped up.