Oil traders make risky bet on calm in Middle East 15 Apr 2024 Crude prices fell after Iran attacked Israel, probably because the Islamic Republic telegraphed its strikes in advance. Still, the unprecedented move may elicit an Israeli response. With oil supplies tightening, regional tensions and prices could yet reset at a higher level.
Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents 9 Feb 2024 Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.
Israel’s war is a risk and opportunity for Saudi 31 Oct 2023 Hamas’s attacks complicate Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to build relations with the Israeli state, Gulf expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen says in this Exchange podcast. But if the Saudi crown prince can use his leverage to help Palestinians, it may help his image at home and abroad.
China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage 23 Oct 2023 The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.
Saudi is wild card in Middle East’s new turmoil 18 Oct 2023 War in Israel complicates Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s modernisation push. He must consider the oil market, rivalry with Iran, overseas investment, and the views of 32 mln citizens. How the Gulf’s biggest economy proceeds has big implications for the region – and the world.
Israel flashes geopolitical warning at shaky time 9 Oct 2023 Bloody attacks in the Middle Eastern country raise the risk of contagion, possibly involving Iran. It’s a bad time for the region to join Ukraine as a conflict hotspot. And it’s yet another concern for a global economy grappling with inflation and rising borrowing costs.
Iran vote makes reopening an even harder sell 21 Jun 2021 Ebrahim Raisi’s election as president means hardliners will from August control the Islamic Republic. A new deal to unwind some sanctions on the country may be signed before then. But companies that were burnt by the U.S. withdrawal from an earlier accord are unlikely to return.
Guest view: End Iran sanctions on moral grounds 23 Mar 2020 The Islamic Republic was in desperate straits even before becoming the first state outside China to be badly hit by the coronavirus. U.S. sanctions are making its fight even harder. Taking the moral decision to roll them back would send a powerful signal, argues Chandran Nair.
Iran will decide if oil bulls outdo gold bugs 7 Jan 2020 Middle East tensions have boosted crude prices more than that of the precious metal. Tehran could yet attack Saudi oil fields or disrupt the vital Strait of Hormuz. Anything less than that would see gold, which was already in high demand, outperform.
Aramco’s war-risk snake trumps oil-price ladder 6 Jan 2020 The threat of U.S. sanctions on Iraq should boost the oil price, and the Saudi giant’s value. Yet its shares have slumped to their lowest level since trading commenced last month. That may be because the company’s operations are more likely to be a target for Iranian retaliation.
Middle East strife’s market toll is just beginning 3 Jan 2020 Oil prices rose more than 3% and global bourses fell after a U.S. air strike killed Iran’s top military leader, Qassem Soleimani. The Islamic republic may well follow up its rhetoric of revenge with action. Investors now have a real war, not just a trade one, to fret about.
Drones detonate Saudi Aramco’s renewed IPO hopes 16 Sep 2019 Air strikes by Houthi rebels knocked out half the oil giant’s output. The drop should be temporary, and Saudi and OPEC peers need to cut production anyway to gee up crude prices amid weaker demand. Still, it’s another reason for investors to mind the risks of an Aramco listing.
Gulf oil risk response looks too sanguine 13 Jun 2019 The price of Brent crude jumped 2.5% after attacks on two tankers near the critical Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. secretary of state blames Iran. With oil still barely above $60 a barrel, the market reaction to this tense situation looks mild. That puts a lot of faith in cool heads.
Oil market constrains Trump’s Iran war talk 21 May 2019 The U.S. president’s belligerent stance towards Tehran belies his dislike of costlier crude. While Saudi Arabia could increase output, it’s an imperfect hedge to the squeeze that would follow a conflict. Tight supply means Trump has little leeway for more than sabre-rattling.
Saudi Arabia will feel Trump’s Iran slap too 22 Apr 2019 The U.S. president will fully enforce sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. Riyadh must pump more to prevent crude prices spiking further, which it has the scope to do. But doing Trump’s bidding will rankle OPEC peers. And the administration has a track record of changing its mind.
Tough U.S. Iran sanctions talk meets oil economics 2 Nov 2018 Eight countries can temporarily keep importing Iranian oil without defying sanctions. Top U.S. diplomat Mike Pompeo says the aim is still to go to zero. With a domestic election and Saudi in a mess, it’s a way to keep acting tough while limiting the risk of oil price spikes.
China’s oil appetite won’t be enough to save Iran 8 Oct 2018 Beijing has resisted U.S. calls to cut crude imports once sanctions hit. But hopes that will be enough to offset a drop of as much as 1.6 mln barrels a day in Iranian exports look optimistic. Instead, it seems to be eyeing the old playbook of public bluster and quiet reductions.
Trump hardball may still become Iran oil softball 23 Jul 2018 The president’s Twitter attack on Tehran counterpart Hassan Rouhani doesn’t sound great for importers of Iranian crude. Yet U.S. sanctions policy is volatile - just ask Russia’s Rusal. Another Trump goal - low petrol prices - implies Iranian exports will still be tolerated.
Saudi Arabia finds OPEC solution that helps itself 22 Jun 2018 At the oil producer group’s Vienna meeting Riyadh needed to hike output without sparking an Iranian walkout. It succeeded, and in a way that could gee Saudi oil revenue. The catch is that President Donald Trump may soon twig that the deal may not help to curb high oil prices.
Saudis’ OPEC tightrope has trade war safety net 22 Jun 2018 The kingdom’s desire for oil output hikes faces pushback from Iran, its usual antagonist. Even if it strikes a deal in Vienna on Friday, lost supply from Venezuela may still push up prices. Riyadh’s saving grace could come if a trade war between the U.S. and China saps demand.